Recent inorganic carbon increase in a temperate estuary driven by water quality improvement and enhanced by droughts

Abstract. Estuaries are an important contributor to the global carbon budget, facilitating carbon removal, transfer, and transformation between land and the coastal ocean. Estuaries are susceptible to global climate change and anthropogenic perturbations. We find that a long-term significant mid-estuary increase in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of 6–21 µmol kg−1 yr−1 (1997–2020) in a temperate estuary in Germany (Elbe Estuary) was driven by an increase in upper-estuary particulate organic carbon (POC) content of 8–14 µmol kg−1 yr−1. The temporal POC increase was due to an overall improvement in water quality observed in the form of high rates of primary production and a significant drop in biological oxygen demand. The magnitude of mid-estuary DIC gain was equivalent to the increased POC production in the upper estuary, suggesting that POC is effectively remineralized and retained as DIC in the mid-estuary, with the estuary acting as an efficient natural filter for POC. In the context of this significant long-term DIC increase, a recent extended drought period (2014–2020) significantly lowered the annual mean river discharge (468 ± 234 m3 s−1) compared to the long-term mean (690 ± 441 m3 s−1, 1960–2020), while the late spring internal DIC load in the estuary doubled. The drought induced a longer dry season, starting in May (earlier than normal), increased the residence time in the estuary and allowed for a more complete remineralization period of POC. Annually, 77 %–94 % of the total DIC export was laterally transported to the coastal waters, reaching 89 ± 4.8 Gmol C yr−1, and thus, between 1997 and 2020, only an estimated maximum of 23 % (10 Gmol C yr−1) was released via carbon dioxide (CO2) evasion. Export of DIC to coastal waters decreased significantly during the drought, on average by 24 % (2014–2020: 38 ± 5.4 Gmol C yr−1), compared to the non-drought period. In contrast, there was no change in the water–air CO2 flux during the drought. We have identified that seasonal changes in DIC processing in an estuary require consideration when estimating both the long-term and future changes in water–air CO2 flux and DIC export to coastal waters. Regional and global carbon budgets should therefore take into account carbon cycling estimates in estuaries, as well as their changes over time in relation to impacts of water quality changes and extreme hydrological events.