{"title":"CMA-GD 模型在预测中国湖北风电场风速方面的性能","authors":"Pei-hua Xu, Chi Cheng, Wen Wang, Zheng-hong Chen, Shui-xin Zhong, Yan-xia Zhang","doi":"10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.035","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":": This study assesses the predictive capabilities of the CMA-GD model for wind speed prediction in two wind farms located in Hubei Province, China. The observed wind speeds at the height of 70m in wind turbines of two wind farms in Suizhou serve as the actual observation data for comparison and testing. At the same time, the wind speed predicted by the EC model is also included for comparative analysis. The results indicate that the CMA-GD model performs better than the EC model in Wind Farm A. The CMA-GD model exhibits a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.56, root mean square error of 2.72 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 2.11 m s –1 . In contrast, the EC model shows a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.51, root mean square error of 2.83 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 2.21 m s –1 . Conversely, in Wind Farm B, the EC model outperforms the CMA-GD model. The CMA-GD model achieves a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.55, root mean square error of 2.61 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 2.13 m s –1 . By contrast, the EC model displays a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.63, root mean square error of 2.04 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 1.67 m s –1 .","PeriodicalId":17432,"journal":{"name":"热带气象学报","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Performance of the CMA-GD Model in Predicting Wind Speed at Wind Farms in Hubei, China\",\"authors\":\"Pei-hua Xu, Chi Cheng, Wen Wang, Zheng-hong Chen, Shui-xin Zhong, Yan-xia Zhang\",\"doi\":\"10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.035\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\": This study assesses the predictive capabilities of the CMA-GD model for wind speed prediction in two wind farms located in Hubei Province, China. The observed wind speeds at the height of 70m in wind turbines of two wind farms in Suizhou serve as the actual observation data for comparison and testing. At the same time, the wind speed predicted by the EC model is also included for comparative analysis. The results indicate that the CMA-GD model performs better than the EC model in Wind Farm A. The CMA-GD model exhibits a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.56, root mean square error of 2.72 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 2.11 m s –1 . In contrast, the EC model shows a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.51, root mean square error of 2.83 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 2.21 m s –1 . Conversely, in Wind Farm B, the EC model outperforms the CMA-GD model. The CMA-GD model achieves a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.55, root mean square error of 2.61 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 2.13 m s –1 . By contrast, the EC model displays a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.63, root mean square error of 2.04 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 1.67 m s –1 .\",\"PeriodicalId\":17432,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"热带气象学报\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"热带气象学报\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.035\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"热带气象学报","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.3724/j.1006-8775.2023.035","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
摘要
:本研究评估了 CMA-GD 模型在中国湖北省两个风电场的风速预测能力。随州两个风电场的风机在 70 米高空的风速观测数据作为实际观测数据进行比较和测试。同时,EC 模型预测的风速也被纳入对比分析。结果表明,在 A 风场,CMA-GD 模型的性能优于 EC 模型。CMA-GD 模型的月平均相关系数为 0.56,均方根误差为 2.72 m s -1 ,平均绝对误差为 2.11 m s -1 。相比之下,EC 模式的月平均相关系数为 0.51,均方根误差为 2.83 m s -1 ,平均绝对误差为 2.21 m s -1 。相反,在风电场 B 中,EC 模型优于 CMA-GD 模型。CMA-GD 模型的月平均相关系数为 0.55,均方根误差为 2.61 m s -1 ,平均绝对误差为 2.13 m s -1 。相比之下,EC 模式的月平均相关系数为 0.63,均方根误差为 2.04 m s -1 ,平均绝对误差为 1.67 m s -1 。
Performance of the CMA-GD Model in Predicting Wind Speed at Wind Farms in Hubei, China
: This study assesses the predictive capabilities of the CMA-GD model for wind speed prediction in two wind farms located in Hubei Province, China. The observed wind speeds at the height of 70m in wind turbines of two wind farms in Suizhou serve as the actual observation data for comparison and testing. At the same time, the wind speed predicted by the EC model is also included for comparative analysis. The results indicate that the CMA-GD model performs better than the EC model in Wind Farm A. The CMA-GD model exhibits a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.56, root mean square error of 2.72 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 2.11 m s –1 . In contrast, the EC model shows a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.51, root mean square error of 2.83 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 2.21 m s –1 . Conversely, in Wind Farm B, the EC model outperforms the CMA-GD model. The CMA-GD model achieves a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.55, root mean square error of 2.61 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 2.13 m s –1 . By contrast, the EC model displays a monthly average correlation coefficient of 0.63, root mean square error of 2.04 m s –1 , and average absolute error of 1.67 m s –1 .