马尔可夫转换 VAR 中推导各种脉冲响应的矩阵统一框架:石油和天然气市场的证据

Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Journal of Economic Asymmetries Pub Date : 2023-12-23 DOI:10.1016/j.jeca.2023.e00349
Maddalena Cavicchioli
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们提出了一种新方法,用封闭形式的整齐矩阵表达式计算马尔可夫切换 VAR 模型的各种脉冲响应函数 (IRF)。关键在于利用状态空间表示法为马尔可夫开关 VAR 模型推导出合适的闭式表示法。通过这种表示方法,IRF 分析可以针对非对称离散冲击或对称连续冲击进行处理。一项模拟研究证明了拟议矩阵方法的实际优势。为了说明我们的方法的可行性和实用性,我们介绍了石油和天然气市场的经验应用,显示了在其价格冲击和经济活动之间的关系中适应非对称性的相关性。
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A matrix unified framework for deriving various impulse responses in Markov switching VAR: Evidence from oil and gas markets

We propose a new method to compute various impulse response functions (IRF) for a Markov switching VAR model in terms of neat matrix expressions in closed form. The key is to derive a suitable closed form representation for Markov switching VAR models using a state-space representation. By this representation, the IRF analysis can be processed with respect to either an asymmetric discrete or a symmetric continuous shocks. A simulation study demonstrates the actual advantages of the proposed matrix methodology. To illustrate the feasibility and the usefulness of our approach, we present empirical applications to oil and natural gas markets showing the relevance of accommodating asymmetries in the relationship between their price shocks and economic activities.

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来源期刊
Journal of Economic Asymmetries
Journal of Economic Asymmetries Economics, Econometrics and Finance-Economics, Econometrics and Finance (all)
CiteScore
4.80
自引率
0.00%
发文量
42
审稿时长
50 days
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