水资源管理模拟优化模型:基于图形的超游戏模型在解决供水冲突中的应用

IF 3.6 4区 管理学 Q2 MANAGEMENT Group Decision and Negotiation Pub Date : 2023-12-26 DOI:10.1007/s10726-023-09862-w
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要 为减轻主要因灌溉措施不力而造成的水资源过度消耗所带来的不利影响,需要制定高效的水资源管理战略。针对这一需求,我们以创新的方式改进了水资源管理策略,既考虑了冲突解决图模型(GMCR)决策支持系统的区域条件,又将灌溉概念和水资源分配理论联系起来,建立了水资源管理模拟-优化耦合模型。通常情况下,实施修改后的水资源管理策略可能会因失去原有水权而引发局部冲突。为了在反对意见最小的情况下改善目前的灌溉水分配制度,利用超博弈论增强了传统 GMCR 模型的能力,将各方在谈判过程中的误解包括在内,并评估了部分认知而非清晰的选项。此外,通过对可用水资源和用水模式的动态监测,建立了水资源管理模拟模型,该模型适用于多作物和间作系统以及供水来源可变的多农业区的实际农业条件。利用遗传算法分配水资源,并确定灌溉缺水量最小的最佳水资源管理策略。在阿曼的常规农业区对所建议框架的效率进行了评估。所建议的战略不仅解决了最佳水资源管理战略实施过程中的地方冲突,还展示了减少水资源短缺这一严重环境问题的巨大潜力。
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A Water Resources Management Simulation–Optimization Model: Application of Graph-Based Hypergame Model in Water Supply Conflicts Resolution

Abstract

To mitigate the unfavorable effects of excessive water resources consumption, mainly induced by poor performance of irrigation practices, efficient water resource management strategies are required. In response to this need, we have, in an innovative way, enhanced the water resources management (WRM) strategies by both considering the regional conditions with the graph model for a conflict resolution (GMCR) decision support system, and linking the irrigation concept and water resources allocation theory to develop a coupled WRM simulation–optimization model. Typically, implementation of the modified WRM strategies may cause local conflicts because of losing the original water rights. To improve the current irrigation water allocation system with the minimum objections, the hypergame theory was utilized to enhance the capabilities of traditional GMCR models by including the parties’ misunderstandings in the negotiation process and assessing the partial perceptions rather than crisp options. Moreover, by dynamic monitoring of available water resources and water consumption patterns, a WRM simulation model was developed, which is applicable in real agricultural conditions of multi-agricultural zones with multi-crop and intercropping systems and variable water supply sources. The genetic algorithm was utilized to allocate the water resources and determine optimal WRM strategies with the lowest irrigation water shortage. The efficiency of the proposed framework was assessed in conventional agricultural zones in Oman. The recommended strategies not only address local conflicts during the implementation of optimal WRM strategies, but also demonstrate significant potential to reduce the water shortage as a serious environmental concern.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.70
自引率
6.70%
发文量
32
期刊介绍: The idea underlying the journal, Group Decision and Negotiation, emerges from evolving, unifying approaches to group decision and negotiation processes. These processes are complex and self-organizing involving multiplayer, multicriteria, ill-structured, evolving, dynamic problems. Approaches include (1) computer group decision and negotiation support systems (GDNSS), (2) artificial intelligence and management science, (3) applied game theory, experiment and social choice, and (4) cognitive/behavioral sciences in group decision and negotiation. A number of research studies combine two or more of these fields. The journal provides a publication vehicle for theoretical and empirical research, and real-world applications and case studies. In defining the domain of group decision and negotiation, the term `group'' is interpreted to comprise all multiplayer contexts. Thus, organizational decision support systems providing organization-wide support are included. Group decision and negotiation refers to the whole process or flow of activities relevant to group decision and negotiation, not only to the final choice itself, e.g. scanning, communication and information sharing, problem definition (representation) and evolution, alternative generation and social-emotional interaction. Descriptive, normative and design viewpoints are of interest. Thus, Group Decision and Negotiation deals broadly with relation and coordination in group processes. Areas of application include intraorganizational coordination (as in operations management and integrated design, production, finance, marketing and distribution, e.g. as in new products and global coordination), computer supported collaborative work, labor-management negotiations, interorganizational negotiations, (business, government and nonprofits -- e.g. joint ventures), international (intercultural) negotiations, environmental negotiations, etc. The journal also covers developments of software f or group decision and negotiation.
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