Climate Change on the Territory of the Volga Federal District in the 20th–21st Centuries and Its Consequences for the Agrosphere

Abstract

The spatial and temporal variability of the main climatic indicators on the territory of the Volga Federal District in the 20th–21st centuries is considered. A general increasing trend in air temperature is revealed, and a heterogeneous pattern of precipitation changes is shown. The temperature variations until the end of the 21st century are analyzed on the example of Kazan using 40 CMIP6 climate models for four anthropogenic scenarios. In the paper, there is an assessment of the dynamics of agroclimatic resources on the territory of the Volga Federal District: the duration of the growing season, the sum of positive temperatures, total precipitation, and photosynthetic radiation. A correlation has been found between the temperature fluctuations in the region and the atmospheric circulation indices (NAO, AO, SCAND, and EAWR). For the territory of Tatarstan, a degree of aridity and waterlogging is evaluated using the agroclimatic indices: the Budyko’s dryness index, the Selyaninov’s hydrothermal coefficient, the Sapozhnikova’s moisture index. It is shown that there is a tendency toward an increase in the duration of the growing season, its heat supply and aridity in the region in summer. A statistical estimation of the dependence of spring wheat yield on the agroclimatic indices on the territory of the Republic of Tatarstan is given.