小地区死亡率预测方法的准确性:来自波兰的证据

IF 1.6 Q2 DEMOGRAPHY JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH Pub Date : 2023-12-30 DOI:10.1007/s12546-023-09326-7
Agnieszka Orwat-Acedańska
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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们研究了几种预测波兰小地区死亡率的简单方法的预测准确性。我们关注的是能适当扩展国家级预测的方法,因此官方统计机构可利用这些方法改进人口预测。我们研究了 2006-2019 年期间波兰 379 个次 NUTS-3 地区的数据,分为三个子时期。第一个时期作为训练样本,后两个时期作为测试子时期。死亡率表面法对死亡率概况的预测最为准确,而使用为几个大年龄组计算的地区级标准化死亡率(SMR)来缩放国家级死亡率预测,则可获得最佳的出生时预期寿命预测。后一种方法比使用基于 NUTS-2 的标准化死亡率(SMR)要好得多,波兰统计局就是这样做的。对于单一年龄组的预测,基于标准化死亡率的方法对年轻组群的预测相对准确,但其预测准确性随着年龄的增长而显著下降。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Accuracy of small area mortality prediction methods: evidence from Poland

We investigate the forecasting accuracy of several simple methods for predicting mortality in small regional areas in Poland. We focus on methods that scale country-level forecasts appropriately and, therefore, can be used by official statistical agencies to improve population projections. We examine data from 379 sub-NUTS-3 districts in Poland for the period 2006–2019, divided into three subperiods. The first period is treated as the training sample and the latter two the testing subperiods. The mortality surface method delivers the most accurate forecasts of the mortality profiles whereas using the district-level standardized mortality rates (SMR) calculated for several broad age groups to scale the country-level mortality forecasts gives the best life expectancy at birth predictions. The latter approach is far better than using the NUTS-2-based standardized mortality rate (SMR), as practiced by the Polish statistical agency. For single age-groups predictions, the SMR-based methods deliver relatively accurate forecasts for young cohorts, but their forecasting accuracy deteriorates significantly with age.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.30
自引率
0.00%
发文量
18
期刊介绍: The Journal of Population Research is a peer-reviewed, international journal which publishes papers on demography and population-related issues. Coverage is not restricted geographically. The Journal publishes substantive empirical analyses, theoretical works, applied research and contributions to methodology. Submissions may take the form of original research papers, perspectives, review articles and shorter technical research notes. Special issues emanating from conferences and other meetings are also considered.
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