JOURNAL OF POPULATION RESEARCH最新文献

Delaying the transition to marriage and parenthood among youths has been a policy priority in many countries. Reproductive transitions in the life course of individuals still attract the attention of social and health researchers and practitioners. The study analyzed the timing and intensity of reproductive transitions of three synthetic birth cohorts of youths and its correlates in Ethiopia using data extracted from Ethiopian Demographic Health Surveys. A multistate approach suits best to investigate transitions that occur across a series of states through time. A flexible parametric survival model was fit to identify potential correlates of the timing and intensities of reproductive transitions. Data management and analysis were done using STATA 14. Reproductive transitions among youths occur starting at age 18 with stronger transition intensities. Even though the transition showed a changing pattern, family formation took the major share of the transition. Despite shaping the timing of entry to union of youths, education did not significantly reduce the risk of the debut to sex. The results demonstrate that early premarital sexual initiation is the main precursor to social ills such as early and single parenthood and their consequences among Ethiopian youths. Due to the excessive risk that female youths have been exposed to, a persistent gender gap in reproductive transition has also been observed. An effort must be made to close the gender gap in reproductive transitions and lessen the negative effects of early premarital sexual initiation, notably the increased risks young females face.

In this paper, we use the joinpoint regression analysis to examine the fertility transition in Greece from 1960 to 2020 after constructing period fertility rates, such as the total annual fertility rates, age-specific fertility rates and mean age of mothers at childbearing for the overall number of births and by birth order. The sources of the empirical data used are the Hellenic Statistical Authority and the European Demographic Observatory database. Results indicate the complex nature of the recent fertility transition in Greece, which occurred in several subsequent cycles. Each of these cycles is examined in this paper, and it describes a population’s transition from a relatively higher fertility regime compared with contemporary standards to a lowest-low one, to an increasing period, and finally to the most recent era of low fertility. After examining all of these, it is evident that the application of this method on any demographic data is robust and efficient.

The study's primary purpose was to recognise the effects of determinants on the level of fertility and thereby explain the differences in trends in the regions of Slovakia. At the turn of the century, the differences in fertility in regions increased, but the total fertility rate decreased. Multivariate statistical methods clarified the regional effects of the level and nature of fertility. Initial regression surveys indicated weak effects between regions, which led to applying factor and cluster analysis to establish regional types. Comprehensive regression analysis was then applied. The strength and nature of regional relationships differed at the inter- and intra-regional levels. Research has demonstrated significant differences in fertility rates dependent on the socioeconomic environment, as regional types uniquely link to determinants. Moreover, each determinant has specific spatial patterns with unequal regression coefficients at different regional levels, which cannot be evaluated constantly. Knowing how spatial variation in fecundity occurs will enable future studies to elucidate the processes involved. Finally, fertility is vital for social assessment and policy formulation, the study’s findings could inform local decision-makers and planners in identifying the socioeconomic conditions underlying fertility at the regional level and planning appropriate intervention strategies.

Sub-Saharan Africa’s countries adopted farm input subsidies, with a twin goal of bolstering food security and reducing poverty. Many scholars evaluate the subsidies against these intended impacts, while ignoring the potential unintended consequences. In this paper, we take advantage of a rare combination of information on both contraceptive usage and a subsidy program, from Malawi’s 2020 multiple indicator cluster survey, to investigate whether Malawi’s farm input subsidy program (FISP) affected women’s contraceptive usage. Using the instrumental variables method, we find that women that lived in FISP households increased contraceptives usage. This is in line with the hypothesis that the women aimed to prevent pregnancy, and hence dedicate uninterrupted time to farming, complementing the FISP. More of women’s time in farming could imply less of their time in domestic chores. We, therefore, further investigated whether children, in the same households, increased participation in the domestic chores, to take up roles left by the farming women. We find that this is the case. These findings therefore highlight the importance of understanding both the intended and unintended consequences of welfare programmes to ensure that the impacts of such programmes are not over-or underestimated.

This paper estimates the causal effect of having young children aged 0–5 years on mothers’ labour force participation in rural India. To address the potential endogeneity in the fertility decision, I exploit Indian families’ preference for having sons. I leverage exogenous variation in the gender of older children aged 6 + years as an instrumental variable for having younger children aged 0–5 years in the family. IV estimates show that the mothers’ participation is significantly reduced by 9.9% due to the presence of young children aged 0–5 years in the household, with the negative effect mostly driven by mothers belonging to the highest income quartile; mothers with high education; and mothers residing in nuclear families. The findings highlight the need for investment in high-skilled jobs and formal childcare facilities to encourage mothers’ labour supply. Using the testable implications for the generalizability of LATE discussed in Angrist (The Economic Journal, 114: C52 C83, 2004), I show that the estimated causal effect is homogenous across compliers, always takers, and never takers and thus, generalizable to the whole population of interest.

Death registration in Nepal is incomplete, which limits its utility as a routine source of mortality data to inform policy development. This study uses data from the Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) Survey 2015/16 in Nepal conducted among households and CRVS service providers (local registrars) to assess the likelihood of death registration, using logistic regression with covariates of socio-economic, demographic and geographic characteristics. Respondents’ main reasons for registration and non-registration of deaths and ways to improve the CRVS system are also analysed. Death registration (70%) was more likely where the decedent was male (77%) versus female (60%), older aged (45 years and above 70%) versus young aged (0–14 years 26%) or died of injuries (more than 70%) compared with maternal causes (12%), where the household head’s education was higher and where the household haf more communication facilities. There were also large differences death registration by province and for certain ethnic groups. The main reasons for death registration were to transfer property entitlements, access social security or for other legal processes (a combined 85% of registered deaths). The major reason for non-registration of deaths according to most households (72%) and service providers (70%) was that it was not necessary. Both households and service providers stated that registration would be made more convenient by arranging mobile teams for registration, allowing registration at place of occurrence, and promoting online registration. The barriers and enablers identified in this study are valuable evidence to inform CRVS strengthening efforts in Nepal and other countries facing a similar challenge of incomplete death registration.

This paper investigated the determinants of unhealthy BMI categories, namely underweight, overweight, and obesity, for urban and rural women of childbearing age in Bangladesh. Multilevel nested logistic models were estimated using data from multiple waves (2004–18) of the Demographic and Health Surveys of Bangladesh. After controlling for community and regional effects, the underweight status showed an inverse relationship with years of education for urban and rural women. Conversely, the fitted model estimates revealed a positive association between overweight risk and education for both urban and rural women populations. However, the association between obesity and education was significant for only urban women. Employment status appeared to be negatively associated with the risks of being overweight and obese in both population groups. Moreover, the women were found less likely to be underweight and more likely to be overweight and obese when their household socio-economic status improved. Study findings have the potential to inform a wide range of interventions, policies and programs that simultaneously address the adverse consequences of underweight, overweight, and/obese population health conditions in rural and urban Bangladesh.

Automatic Adjustment Mechanisms (AAMs) are legal instruments that help social security systems respond to demographic and economic changes. In Brazil, the Social Security Factor (SSF) was introduced in the late 1990s as an AAM to link retirement benefits to life expectancy at the retirement age, hoping to promote contributory justice and discourage early retirement. Recent research has highlighted the limitations of right-censored life tables, such as those used in Brazil. It has recommended using the gamma-Gompertz-Makeham ((Gamma GM)) model to estimate adult and old-age mortality. This study investigated the impact of right-censoring on the SSF by comparing the official SSF and other social security metrics with a counterfactual scenario computed based on fitted (Gamma GM) models. The results indicate that from 2004 to 2012, official life tables may have negatively impacted retirees’ income, particularly for those who delayed their retirement. Furthermore, the (Gamma GM) fitted models’ life expectancies had more stable paths over time, which could have helped with long-term planning. Our findings are significant for policymakers as they highlight the importance of using appropriate mortality metrics in AAMs to ensure accurate retirement benefit payments. They also underscore the need to consider the potential impacts of seemingly innocuous hypotheses on public action outcomes. Overall, this study provides valuable insights for policymakers looking to enhance the effectiveness and fairness of social security systems.