Baiju R. Shah MD, PhD , Peter C. Austin PhD , Noah M. Ivers MD, PhD , Alan Katz MD , Alexander Singer MB, BCh, BAO , Monica Sirski PhD , Deva Thiruchelvam MSc , Karen Tu MD, MSc
{"title":"2 型糖尿病微血管和心血管并发症风险预测评分,利用两个省份的实际数据得出并验证 DIabeteS COmplications (DISCO) 风险评分","authors":"Baiju R. Shah MD, PhD , Peter C. Austin PhD , Noah M. Ivers MD, PhD , Alan Katz MD , Alexander Singer MB, BCh, BAO , Monica Sirski PhD , Deva Thiruchelvam MSc , Karen Tu MD, MSc","doi":"10.1016/j.jcjd.2023.12.009","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>Existing tools to predict the risk of complications among people with type 2 diabetes poorly discriminate high- from low-risk patients. Our aim in this study was to develop risk prediction scores for major type 2 diabetes complications using real-world clinical care data, and to externally validate these risk scores in a different jurisdiction.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Using health-care administrative data and electronic medical records data, risk scores were derived using data from 25,088 people with type 2 diabetes from the Canadian province of Ontario, followed between 2002 and 2017. Scores were developed for major clinically important microvascular events (treatment for retinopathy, foot ulcer, incident end-stage renal disease), cardiovascular disease events (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, amputation), and mortality (cardiovascular, noncardiovascular, all-cause). They were then externally validated using the independent data of 11,416 people with type 2 diabetes from the province of Manitoba.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The 10 derived risk scores had moderate to excellent discrimination in the independent validation cohort, ranging from 0.705 to 0.977. Their calibration to predict 5-year risk was excellent across most levels of predicted risk, albeit with some displaying underestimation at the highest levels of predicted risk.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The DIabeteS COmplications (DISCO) risk scores for major type 2 diabetes complications were derived and externally validated using contemporary real-world clinical data. As a result, they may be more accurate than other risk prediction scores derived using randomized trial data. The use of more accurate risk scores in clinical practice will help improve personalization of clinical care for patients with type 2 diabetes.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":9565,"journal":{"name":"Canadian Journal of Diabetes","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":2.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1499267123007281/pdfft?md5=053a69f7565503c99812eb9afc1a90dd&pid=1-s2.0-S1499267123007281-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Risk Prediction Scores for Type 2 Diabetes Microvascular and Cardiovascular Complications Derived and Validated With Real-world Data From 2 Provinces: The DIabeteS COmplications (DISCO) Risk Scores\",\"authors\":\"Baiju R. Shah MD, PhD , Peter C. Austin PhD , Noah M. Ivers MD, PhD , Alan Katz MD , Alexander Singer MB, BCh, BAO , Monica Sirski PhD , Deva Thiruchelvam MSc , Karen Tu MD, MSc\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jcjd.2023.12.009\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><h3>Objectives</h3><p>Existing tools to predict the risk of complications among people with type 2 diabetes poorly discriminate high- from low-risk patients. Our aim in this study was to develop risk prediction scores for major type 2 diabetes complications using real-world clinical care data, and to externally validate these risk scores in a different jurisdiction.</p></div><div><h3>Methods</h3><p>Using health-care administrative data and electronic medical records data, risk scores were derived using data from 25,088 people with type 2 diabetes from the Canadian province of Ontario, followed between 2002 and 2017. Scores were developed for major clinically important microvascular events (treatment for retinopathy, foot ulcer, incident end-stage renal disease), cardiovascular disease events (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, amputation), and mortality (cardiovascular, noncardiovascular, all-cause). They were then externally validated using the independent data of 11,416 people with type 2 diabetes from the province of Manitoba.</p></div><div><h3>Results</h3><p>The 10 derived risk scores had moderate to excellent discrimination in the independent validation cohort, ranging from 0.705 to 0.977. Their calibration to predict 5-year risk was excellent across most levels of predicted risk, albeit with some displaying underestimation at the highest levels of predicted risk.</p></div><div><h3>Conclusions</h3><p>The DIabeteS COmplications (DISCO) risk scores for major type 2 diabetes complications were derived and externally validated using contemporary real-world clinical data. As a result, they may be more accurate than other risk prediction scores derived using randomized trial data. The use of more accurate risk scores in clinical practice will help improve personalization of clinical care for patients with type 2 diabetes.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":9565,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Canadian Journal of Diabetes\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-04-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1499267123007281/pdfft?md5=053a69f7565503c99812eb9afc1a90dd&pid=1-s2.0-S1499267123007281-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Canadian Journal of Diabetes\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1499267123007281\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Canadian Journal of Diabetes","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1499267123007281","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM","Score":null,"Total":0}
Risk Prediction Scores for Type 2 Diabetes Microvascular and Cardiovascular Complications Derived and Validated With Real-world Data From 2 Provinces: The DIabeteS COmplications (DISCO) Risk Scores
Objectives
Existing tools to predict the risk of complications among people with type 2 diabetes poorly discriminate high- from low-risk patients. Our aim in this study was to develop risk prediction scores for major type 2 diabetes complications using real-world clinical care data, and to externally validate these risk scores in a different jurisdiction.
Methods
Using health-care administrative data and electronic medical records data, risk scores were derived using data from 25,088 people with type 2 diabetes from the Canadian province of Ontario, followed between 2002 and 2017. Scores were developed for major clinically important microvascular events (treatment for retinopathy, foot ulcer, incident end-stage renal disease), cardiovascular disease events (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, amputation), and mortality (cardiovascular, noncardiovascular, all-cause). They were then externally validated using the independent data of 11,416 people with type 2 diabetes from the province of Manitoba.
Results
The 10 derived risk scores had moderate to excellent discrimination in the independent validation cohort, ranging from 0.705 to 0.977. Their calibration to predict 5-year risk was excellent across most levels of predicted risk, albeit with some displaying underestimation at the highest levels of predicted risk.
Conclusions
The DIabeteS COmplications (DISCO) risk scores for major type 2 diabetes complications were derived and externally validated using contemporary real-world clinical data. As a result, they may be more accurate than other risk prediction scores derived using randomized trial data. The use of more accurate risk scores in clinical practice will help improve personalization of clinical care for patients with type 2 diabetes.
期刊介绍:
The Canadian Journal of Diabetes is Canada''s only diabetes-oriented, peer-reviewed, interdisciplinary journal for diabetes health-care professionals.
Published bimonthly, the Canadian Journal of Diabetes contains original articles; reviews; case reports; shorter articles such as Perspectives in Practice, Practical Diabetes and Innovations in Diabetes Care; Diabetes Dilemmas and Letters to the Editor.