加拿大减少 SARS-CoV-2 传播的非药物干预措施的效果及其与 COVID-19 住院率的关系。

Erin E Rees, Brent P Avery, Hélène Carabin, Carolee A Carson, David Champredon, Simon de Montigny, Brendan Dougherty, Bouchra R Nasri, Nicholas H Ogden
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:非药物干预措施(NPIs)旨在减少严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2(SARS-CoV-2)感染的发病率,主要是通过限制病毒传播的人群接触。然而,非传染性肺炎措施限制了社会交往,并对经济、身体、精神和社会福祉产生了负面影响。因此,有必要评估非传染性病原体感染对减少 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)病例和住院人数的影响,以证明其使用的合理性:方法:利用加拿大六个省(不列颠哥伦比亚省、艾伯塔省、萨斯喀彻温省、马尼托巴省、安大略省、魁北克省)的数据,采用考虑了时间序列数据自相关性的动态回归模型,评估了 1)非传染性疾病(用严格指数衡量)对 SARS-CoV-2 传播(用有效繁殖数量衡量)的影响,以及 2)COVID-19 住院患者数量对严格指数的影响:结果:在阿尔伯塔省、萨斯喀彻温省、马尼托巴省、安大略省和魁北克省,严格指数的增加与 SARS-CoV-2 传播的减少有显著的统计学联系。除安大略省外,所有这些省份的严格程度对传播的影响都是时滞性的。在除萨斯喀彻温省以外的所有省份中,住院率的增加与严格指数的增加在统计学上有显著关联。住院对严格程度的影响是时滞性的:这些结果表明,NPI 在加拿大各省是有效的,其实施在一定程度上是对 COVID-19 患者住院率增加的回应。
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Effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada and their association with COVID-19 hospitalization rates.

Background: Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) aim to reduce the incidence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections mostly by limiting contacts between people where virus transmission can occur. However, NPIs limit social interactions and have negative impacts on economic, physical, mental and social well-being. It is, therefore, important to assess the impact of NPIs on reducing the number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases and hospitalizations to justify their use.

Methods: Dynamic regression models accounting for autocorrelation in time series data were used with data from six Canadian provinces (British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Québec) to assess 1) the effect of NPIs (measured using a stringency index) on SARS-CoV-2 transmission (measured by the effective reproduction number), and 2) the effect of the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients on the stringency index.

Results: Increasing stringency index was associated with a statistically significant decrease in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and Québec. The effect of stringency on transmission was time-lagged in all of these provinces except for Ontario. In all provinces except for Saskatchewan, increasing hospitalization rates were associated with a statistically significant increase in the stringency index. The effect of hospitalization on stringency was time-lagged.

Conclusion: These results suggest that NPIs have been effective in Canadian provinces, and that their implementation has been, in part, a response to increasing hospitalization rates of COVID-19 patients.

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