负面竞选声明、联盟异质性和政府党派支持率

IF 2.9 2区 社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE Electoral Studies Pub Date : 2023-12-28 DOI:10.1016/j.electstud.2023.102738
Marc Debus , Or Tuttnauer
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,欧洲政党制度日趋复杂,导致联合政府在意识形态上更加异质,政策妥协影响深远。因此,各政党竞选策略的一个重要目标就是向选民展示独特的政策概况,让选民据此对竞争政党进行评价。我们认为,选民会奖励那些在竞选活动中攻击其政府合作伙伴并试图通过更积极的竞选策略来阐明其纲领性立场的联盟政党。基于 CSES 数据、比较宣言项目数据库以及 2007 年至 2018 年七个欧洲国家政党竞选声明的新型数据库,我们发现,如果联盟党在选举日之前的最后四周攻击其合作伙伴,选民对联盟党的支持就会增加。然而,只有在现任联合政府的意识形态多样性相当低的情况下,才能观察到这种关系。
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Negative campaign statements, coalition heterogeneity, and the support for government parties

European party systems have become increasingly complex in recent years, resulting in ideologically more heterogeneous coalition governments with far-reaching policy compromises. Consequently, an important goal of the parties' electoral campaign strategies is to present the voters a distinct policy profile on which the electorate can evaluate the competing parties. We argue that voters reward those coalition parties that attack their government partners in the election campaign and try to clarify their programmatic positions with the help of a more aggressive campaign strategy. Based on data from the CSES, the Comparative Manifesto Project database and a novel data base on party campaign statements in seven European countries from 2007 to 2018, we find that voters’ support for coalition parties increases if the latter attack their partners in the last four weeks before election day. Yet, this relationship is only observable in contexts when the ideological diversity of the incumbent coalition government is rather low.

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来源期刊
Electoral Studies
Electoral Studies POLITICAL SCIENCE-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
13.00%
发文量
82
审稿时长
67 days
期刊介绍: Electoral Studies is an international journal covering all aspects of voting, the central act in the democratic process. Political scientists, economists, sociologists, game theorists, geographers, contemporary historians and lawyers have common, and overlapping, interests in what causes voters to act as they do, and the consequences. Electoral Studies provides a forum for these diverse approaches. It publishes fully refereed papers, both theoretical and empirical, on such topics as relationships between votes and seats, and between election outcomes and politicians reactions; historical, sociological, or geographical correlates of voting behaviour; rational choice analysis of political acts, and critiques of such analyses.
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