Electoral Studies最新文献

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Economic growth, largest-party vote shares, and electoral authoritarianism 经济增长、最大党派得票率和选举威权主义

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102879

Matthew Wilson , David Andersen

Cross-national research on electoral authoritarianism has a limited understanding of the role of economic growth in bolstering ruling parties due to its focus on hegemonic or dominant-party regimes, which bases conclusions on ruling party success and eschews comparisons with other regimes. This paper demonstrates the importance of growth-induced election gains in electoral authoritarian regimes by comparing the impacts of growth on largest-party vote shares across all regimes. Examining legislative and executive elections for a sample of roughly 130 countries between 1945 and 2020, we show that growth consistently increases largest-party vote shares and that this relationship is stronger in less democratic regimes. The results highlight economic performance as an important channel through which parties in autocracies can legitimate their authority and consolidate control over future elections. We conclude by discussing several ways that growth supports increased electoral dominance by a ruling party.

有关选举威权主义的跨国研究对经济增长在支持执政党方面所起作用的理解有限，这是因为这些研究的重点是霸权或主导政党政权，其结论以执政党的成功为基础，而回避了与其他政权的比较。本文通过比较经济增长对所有政权中最大党派得票率的影响，证明了经济增长引发的选举收益在选举专制政权中的重要性。通过对 1945 年至 2020 年间约 130 个国家的立法和行政选举进行研究，我们发现经济增长会持续增加最大党派的得票率，而且这种关系在民主程度较低的政权中更为明显。这些结果突出表明，经济表现是专制政体中的政党使其权威合法化并巩固对未来选举控制的重要渠道。最后，我们讨论了经济增长支持执政党提高选举主导地位的几种方式。

引用次数: 0

Targeting voters online: How parties’ campaigns differ 在网上锁定选民：各政党的竞选活动有何不同

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102872

Cornelius Erfort

How do parties target campaign ads online? Despite the growing importance of digital campaigns, only a few recent studies have analyzed whom parties are targeting. Do parties aim to persuade or mobilize voters? This paper analyzes how parties target and how they differ in their use of targeting using a new and comprehensive dataset, matching data from the Facebook Ad Library with EES survey responses. The dataset contains over 100,000 Facebook and Instagram ads from 148 parties for the 2019 European Parliament elections. The results show that smaller and niche parties have targeting strategies more narrowly focused on their supporters, whereas larger parties target a broader audience. My findings have important implications for research on voter targeting and the ongoing debate about the regulation of campaigns online.

政党如何在网上投放竞选广告？尽管数字竞选越来越重要，但最近只有少数研究分析了政党的目标群体。政党的目标是说服选民还是动员选民？本文利用一个新的综合数据集，将 Facebook 广告库的数据与 EES 调查回复进行匹配，分析了政党如何定位以及它们在定位使用上的差异。该数据集包含 148 个政党在 2019 年欧洲议会选举中投放的 10 万多个 Facebook 和 Instagram 广告。结果表明，小型和小众党派的目标策略更狭隘地聚焦于其支持者，而大型党派的目标受众则更广泛。我的研究结果对选民定位研究和正在进行的网络竞选监管辩论具有重要意义。

引用次数: 0

Masking turnout inequality. Invalid voting and class bias when compulsory voting is reinstated 掩盖投票率的不平等。恢复强制投票时的无效投票和阶级偏见

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102878

Gonzalo Contreras , Mauricio Morales

Compulsory voting increases turnout. However, this does not imply that CV reduces the socioeconomic gap among voters. While conventional accounts argue that CV corrects turnout inequality, some literature challenges such effect because CV also increases invalid voting. We evaluate the empirical merits of these theories turning to the case of Chile. We compare the results of the Constitutional referendums in 2020 –with voluntary voting– and 2022 –under mandatory rules. We report the transition to CV (1) boosted turnout; (2) reduced the class-biased turnout; (3) increased invalid voting, yet wasn't socioeconomically biased in all municipalities; (4) invalid voting inequality emerged when dividing municipalities into those within and outside the Metropolitan Region. These findings hold for the 2021 –with VV– and 2023 constitutional representative elections –under CV. Our results show that CV raised participation and reduced class-biased turnout, but it doesn't automatically correct inequalities, as it produces heterogeneous effects over invalid voting.

强制投票提高了投票率。然而，这并不意味着强制投票会缩小选民之间的社会经济差距。虽然传统观点认为强制投票纠正了投票率的不平等，但一些文献对这种效果提出了质疑，因为强制投票也增加了无效投票。我们以智利为例，对这些理论的实证价值进行评估。我们比较了 2020 年（自愿投票）和 2022 年（强制规则）的宪法公投结果。我们报告说，向自愿投票过渡（1）提高了投票率；（2）减少了有阶级偏见的投票率；（3）增加了无效投票，但并非所有城市都存在社会经济偏见；（4）将城市分为首都大区内外时，出现了无效投票不平等现象。这些发现在 2021 年（有 VV）和 2023 年（有 CV）的宪法代表选举中都是成立的。我们的结果表明，宪法代表制提高了参与度，减少了有阶级偏见的投票率，但它并不能自动纠正不平等现象，因为它对无效投票产生了异质性影响。

引用次数: 0

Does decentralization boost electoral participation? Revisiting the question in a non-western context 权力下放会促进选举参与吗？在非西方背景下重新审视这一问题

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102873

Camille Barras

Since the late 1970s, intergovernmental relationships worldwide have undergone an unequivocal transformation, with powers increasingly shifting toward subnational governments. One of the expected outcomes of decentralization reforms is a (re)vitalization of participation in subnational decision-making. If available empirical evidence tends to support this claim, it has remained primarily restricted to Western countries. This article leverages asymmetric decentralization arrangements in Ukraine to re-examine the effect of decentralization on voter turnout in a diverging setting. It conducts matching and regression analyses using an original city-level dataset that combines electoral, census, administrative, financial and geospatial data. The results converge on a significantly positive effect on voter turnout in local elections of more than 4 percentage points. Additional analyses concerning the mechanisms suggest that the effect might be driven by citizens’ awareness of electoral stakes. Interestingly, the increase in voter turnout appears concomitant with lower perceived local government performance.

自 20 世纪 70 年代末以来，世界范围内的政府间关系发生了明显的变化，权力日益向国家以下各级政府转移。权力下放改革的预期结果之一是国家以下各级决策的参与（重新）充满活力。如果说现有的经验证据倾向于支持这一说法，那么这些证据仍主要局限于西方国家。本文利用乌克兰的非对称分权安排，重新审视了分权在不同背景下对投票率的影响。文章使用结合了选举、人口普查、行政、金融和地理空间数据的原始城市级数据集进行匹配和回归分析。结果表明，在地方选举中，地方分权对选民投票率的积极影响超过 4 个百分点。有关机制的其他分析表明，这种效应可能是由公民对选举利害关系的认识所驱动的。有趣的是，选民投票率的提高似乎与人们对地方政府绩效的看法降低同时发生。

引用次数: 0

The populist impulse: Cognitive reflection, populist attitudes and candidate preferences 民粹主义冲动：认知反思、民粹主义态度和候选人偏好

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102868

Andrew Hunter

In this paper, I examine cognitive reflection, i.e., the ability to suppress one's spontaneous intuition to engage in higher-level analytical thinking, as a predictor of populist attitudes and candidate preferences. I develop a set of hypotheses which link the ideological content of populism to lower levels of cognitive reflection. I test these hypotheses with an original survey conducted on a representative sample of the UK population, in which respondents were asked to complete a cognitive reflection test, answer questions from a scale of populist attitudes, and respond to a conjoint experiment of hypothetical parliamentary candidates whose populist ideology is randomly attributed. I find that populist attitudes are negatively associated with cognitive reflection (p < 0.05). Furthermore, I also find suggestive evidence that anti-elite and conflict-seeking conjoint attributes interact negatively with respondent-level cognitive reflection on the formation of conjoint preferences (p < 0.1). However, I find no such interaction with respect to people centric attributes.

在本文中，我研究了认知反思（即抑制个人自发直觉以进行更高层次分析思考的能力）对民粹主义态度和候选人偏好的预测作用。我提出了一系列假设，将民粹主义的意识形态内容与较低的认知反思水平联系起来。我通过一项对英国人口代表性样本进行的原创调查来验证这些假设，在这项调查中，受访者被要求完成一项认知反思测试，回答民粹主义态度量表中的问题，并对随机归因于民粹主义意识形态的假定议会候选人的联合实验做出回应。我发现民粹主义态度与认知反思呈负相关（p < 0.05）。此外，我还发现有提示性证据表明，反精英和寻求冲突的联合属性与受访者的认知反思在联合偏好的形成上存在负向互动（p <0.1）。然而，我没有发现以人为中心的属性有这种相互作用。

引用次数: 0

A decomposition of partisan advantage in electoral district maps 选区地图中党派优势的分解

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102871

Jeffrey T. Barton , Jon X. Eguia

We propose a framework to decompose the partisan advantage in a map of electoral districts into four contributing factors: the fairness notion used to evaluate the map, political geography, rules on redistricting criteria that the map must meet, and the discretionary choice of which specific map to adopt. We apply this factor decomposition to the 2021–22 U.S. congressional district map in each state. Such a decomposition can distinguish maps with large partisan advantages that reflect a non-partisan underlying cause, from gerrymandered maps in which the advantage is attributable to the deliberate partisan choices of map-makers, such as the pro-Republican maps in Florida and Texas, or the pro-Democratic map in Illinois.

我们提出了一个框架，将选区地图中的党派优势分解为四个促成因素：用于评估地图的公平性概念、政治地理、地图必须满足的重划标准规则，以及采用哪张具体地图的自由裁量选择。我们将这一因素分解应用于各州的 2021-22 年美国国会选区地图。这种分解方法可以将具有较大党派优势但反映了非党派根本原因的地图，与由于地图绘制者的蓄意党派选择而产生优势的选区划分地图区分开来，如佛罗里达州和得克萨斯州的亲共和党地图，或伊利诺伊州的亲民主党地图。

引用次数: 0

Revisiting eligibility effects of voting at 16: Insights from Austria based on regression discontinuity analyses 重新审视 16 岁投票资格的影响：基于回归不连续分析的奥地利启示

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102870

Elisabeth Graf , Julia Partheymüller , Laura Bronner , Sylvia Kritzinger

引用次数: 0

Social trust and the winner-loser gap 社会信任与输赢差距

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2024-10-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102869

Matías Bargsted, Andrés González-Ide

The electoral winner-loser gap literature has shown sharp differences between citizens who vote for winning and losing options in key indicators of political support. In this article, we claim that the influence of election results can extend beyond the political domain and reach citizens’ level of social trust. Indeed, elections can reveal to citizens who voted for the winning option that their preferences are aligned with the majority opinion of society, while it signals the opposite to electoral losers. We hypothesize that this contrast will trigger a gap in the level of social trust between winners and losers, and that this gap will be larger among politically engaged voters relative to those more disinterested in political affairs. To contrast our hypotheses, we conducted two online panel surveys with a pre-post electoral design during two recent elections in Chile. Estimates from Two-way Fixed Effects regression models support our main theoretical expectations.

选举输赢差距的文献显示，投票支持获胜和失败选项的公民在政治支持的关键指标上存在巨大差异。在本文中，我们认为选举结果的影响可以超越政治领域，达到公民的社会信任水平。事实上，选举会向投票支持获胜方案的公民表明，他们的偏好与社会大多数人的意见是一致的，而对选举失败者来说，则是相反的信号。我们假设，这种反差会引发胜选者和落选者之间社会信任水平的差距，而且这种差距在参与政治的选民中会比那些对政治事务不感兴趣的选民更大。为了对比我们的假设，我们在智利最近的两次选举中进行了两次在线小组调查，采用了选举前-选举后的设计。双向固定效应回归模型的估计结果支持我们的主要理论预期。

引用次数: 0

Does a voter's decision to sit out an election depend upon where others stand? 选民是否决定不参加选举取决于其他人的立场？

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102864

Harry Krashinsky

This analysis uses plausibly exogenous changes in electoral boundaries to investigate how voting participation is affected by local concentrations of voters who favor majority or minority parties. Novel instrumental variable and difference-in-differences models suggest that – even while accounting for overall electoral competitiveness – participation rates increase where there exist greater concentrations of voters who support majority parties, but a similar effect is not evident for less-popular, minority parties. Furthermore, this effect is driven by spending patterns of the dominant party in the local district.

本分析利用貌似外生的选区划分变化来研究投票参与度如何受到当地支持多数党或少数党的选民集中程度的影响。新颖的工具变量和差分模型表明，即使考虑到整体选举竞争力，在支持多数党的选民较为集中的地方，投票参与率也会提高，但对于支持率较低的少数党，类似的影响并不明显。此外，这种效应是由当地选区中占主导地位的政党的支出模式所驱动的。

引用次数: 0

Sorry Not Sorry: Presentational strategies and the electoral punishment of corruption 对不起不是罪过：陈述策略与选举惩治腐败

IF 2.9 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2024-09-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2024.102867

Dean Dulay , Seulki Lee

A growing literature has explored various factors that hamper the electoral punishment of corruption. Most studies have focused on how voters react to a corruption allegation, but this focus leaves out an important, common aspect of corruption allegations that voters also encounter: politicians' blame avoidance strategies. This study examines how politicians' presentational strategies in response to corruption allegations affect voter sanctioning. Employing an online survey experiment on a sample of 3531 U.S. citizens, we find that politicians' action-oriented strategies, such as denying allegations, acknowledging a problem but denying responsibility, or acknowledging a problem and taking responsibility, are more effective than passive non-response. These three active strategies do not differ in their effectiveness. This result is robust to heterogenous levels of state-level corruption, partisan bias, and political knowledge. Our findings suggest that politicians’ presentational strategies may undermine political accountability for corruption, although they do not fully counteract the effect of corruption on voting intentions.

越来越多的文献探讨了阻碍选举惩治腐败的各种因素。大多数研究侧重于选民对腐败指控的反应，但这一重点忽略了选民也会遇到的腐败指控的一个重要而常见的方面：政治家的避责策略。本研究探讨了政治家在回应腐败指控时的陈述策略如何影响选民的认可度。通过对 3531 个美国公民样本进行在线调查实验，我们发现政治家的行动导向策略，如否认指控、承认问题但否认责任或承认问题并承担责任，比消极不回应更有效。这三种积极策略在效果上没有差异。这一结果对不同程度的国家级腐败、党派偏见和政治知识具有稳健性。我们的研究结果表明，政治家的陈述策略可能会削弱对腐败的政治问责，尽管它们并不能完全抵消腐败对投票意向的影响。

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