Electoral Studies最新文献

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The myth of compensatory effects: How party organisation shapes women's representation in dual-candidacy mixed electoral systems 补偿效应的神话：政党组织如何在双候选人混合选举制度中塑造女性代表

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103057

Heinz Brandenburg , Maarja Lühiste

Electoral systems are widely recognised as important institutional determinants explaining women's political representation. Mixed-member proportional (MMP) systems, for example, are expected to enhance women's representation by combining single-member districts with PR lists, with the latter compensating for barriers women traditionally face in constituency contests. This article challenges the underlying assumption that candidate selection in MMP's two tiers operates independently, arguing instead that decentralised candidate selection makes most MMP systems function more like pure single-member district (SMD) systems than proportional representation (PR) systems. Using Germany as a case study, and utilising a unique custom-built dataset spanning 13 election cycles from 1976 to 2025, we find that decentralised candidate selection creates strong linkages across both tiers. Constituency nomination appears as an almost necessary pre-condition to get elected via the list-PR tier, meaning that barriers to women's candidacy in single-member districts carry over also to the supposedly more favourable PR component. This interconnection undermines the compensatory logic of MMP design for women's representation. We find that local selectors in Germany's largely decentralised system remain reluctant to nominate women in rural areas, safe seats and right-wing parties, while prior female candidacy in the constituency increases women's chances to secure a nomination. The evidence thus suggests that where candidate selection remains decentralised, even mixed electoral system cannot overcome local party elites' resistance to female candidates.

选举制度被广泛认为是解释妇女政治代表性的重要制度决定因素。例如，混合成员比例（MMP）制度预计将通过将单一成员选区与公关名单相结合来提高妇女的代表性，后者弥补了妇女在选区竞选中传统上面临的障碍。本文挑战了MMP两层候选人选择独立运作的基本假设，认为分散的候选人选择使大多数MMP系统更像纯粹的单成员区（SMD）系统，而不是比例代表制（PR）系统。以德国为例研究，并利用从1976年到2025年的13个选举周期的独特定制数据集，我们发现分散的候选人选择在两个层次之间建立了强大的联系。选区提名似乎是通过名单公关层当选的几乎必要的先决条件，这意味着女性在单一成员区获得候选人资格的障碍也会延续到被认为更有利的公关部分。这种相互联系破坏了女性代表的MMP设计的补偿逻辑。我们发现，在德国很大程度上分散的制度下，地方选举者仍然不愿意提名农村地区、安全席位和右翼政党的女性，而选区中先前的女性候选人增加了女性获得提名的机会。因此，证据表明，在候选人选择仍然分散的地方，即使是混合选举制度也无法克服地方政党精英对女性候选人的抵制。

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引用次数: 0

Just like me? Testing descriptive attributes as voting heuristics 就像我一样？测试描述性属性作为投票启发式

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103045

Leonie Rettig, Lukas Isermann

The lack of candidate diversity and the descriptive under-representation of groups such as women and young people in parliaments is a recurring concern in both public and academic debates. While prior studies have examined whether voters prefer candidates who share their gender or age, findings remain mixed and are often based on experimental designs. Using conditional logit models and combined survey-candidate data from the 2021 German Federal Election, we assess whether voters considered gender and age similarities with district candidates when casting their votes. This election, shaped by heightened media focus on under-represented groups and public discourse around gender and age, offers a strong case for exploring group-based voting behavior. Despite this context, our results show no general effect of gender or age similarity on vote choice. Gender cues do not influence candidate preferences, even among women or left-leaning voters. While age similarity has no overall impact, younger voters on the left are more likely to support younger candidates, whereas their right-leaning counterparts favour older ones. These findings suggest that identity-based cues matter only for specific subgroups under certain conditions. Our study highlights the limits of affinity voting in information-rich settings compared to the stronger effects often found in experimental research.

候选人缺乏多样性以及妇女和青年等群体在议会中的代表性不足，是公众和学术辩论中反复出现的问题。虽然之前的研究已经调查了选民是否更喜欢与自己性别或年龄相同的候选人，但结果仍然喜忧参半，而且往往是基于实验设计。使用条件logit模型和2021年德国联邦选举的综合调查候选人数据，我们评估了选民在投票时是否考虑了与地区候选人的性别和年龄相似性。这次选举受到媒体高度关注代表性不足的群体和围绕性别和年龄的公共话语的影响，为探索基于群体的投票行为提供了一个强有力的案例。尽管如此，我们的结果显示性别或年龄相似性对投票选择没有普遍影响。性别线索不会影响候选人的偏好，即使在女性或左倾选民中也是如此。虽然年龄相似度没有总体影响，但年轻的左翼选民更有可能支持年轻的候选人，而他们的右倾选民更倾向于年长的候选人。这些发现表明，在某些条件下，基于身份的线索只对特定的子群体起作用。我们的研究强调了在信息丰富的环境中亲和投票的局限性，而不是在实验研究中经常发现的更强的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to ‘Happy and glorious? The sometimes-unifying effects of the British monarchy’ [Elect. Stud. 96 (2025) 1-7 102961] “快乐和光荣？”英国君主政体有时会产生统一的效果。螺柱96 (2025)1-7 [2961]

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103005

Braeden Davis , Yu-Shiuan Huang

引用次数: 0

Added, not selected: The limited electoral effectiveness of party elite interventions in candidate selection 补充，而非选择：政党精英干预候选人选择的有限选举效率

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103041

Thomas Däubler , Theresa Reidy

An inclusive and decentralized mode of candidate selection may lead to unequal outcomes in terms of descriptive representation. Centralized intervention by party headquarters is often used as a partial remedy, but the ultimate effectiveness of these interventions depends on how well the “added” candidates fare on election day. This article investigates whether there is a difference in electoral performance between candidates who are nominated by a party selection convention and those who are added to the ticket directly by party elites. We focus on the Irish general election of 2020. Ireland is an interesting case, since candidate selection is formally inclusive and decentralized, but in practice party headquarters frequently intervene and add candidates. We hypothesize that added candidates, and especially women-added candidates, are less successful on election day. The results suggest that the expected relationships are strongly driven by differences in other observed candidate characteristics, such as incumbency and/or political experience. In addition, there is evidence that added female candidates struggle to obtain first preferences (under the Single Transferable Vote system) from certain subgroups of voters, surprisingly including strong supporters of gender equality.

包容性和分散性的候选人选择模式可能导致描述性代表性方面的不平等结果。政党总部的集中干预通常被用作部分补救措施，但这些干预的最终效果取决于“新增”候选人在选举日的表现。本文研究了由政党选举大会提名的候选人和由政党精英直接提名的候选人在选举表现上是否存在差异。我们关注2020年爱尔兰大选。爱尔兰是一个有趣的例子，因为候选人的选择在形式上是包容和分散的，但在实践中，政党总部经常干预并增加候选人。我们假设，增加的候选人，尤其是女性候选人，在选举日不太成功。结果表明，预期的关系在很大程度上是由其他观察到的候选人特征的差异所驱动的，比如在职和/或政治经验。此外，有证据表明，增加的女性候选人很难从某些选民群体中获得第一选择（在单一可转移投票制度下），令人惊讶的是，其中包括性别平等的坚定支持者。

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引用次数: 0

Corrigendum to ‘Does switching pay off? The impact of parliamentary party instability on individual electoral performance’ [Elect. Stud. Volume 99, February 2026, 103037] “切换是否有回报？”议会政党不稳定对个人选举表现的影响。钉。第99卷，2026年2月，103037]

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103046

Allan Sikk , Sona N. Golder , Raimondas Ibenskas , Paulina Sałek-Lipcean

引用次数: 0

Conflict on the campaign trail? How campaign effort and electoral competitiveness shape affective polarization 竞选过程中的冲突？竞选努力和选举竞争如何塑造情感两极分化

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103042

Justin Robinson , Ruth Dassonneville

Concerns about the consequences of affective polarization for governing and democracy have resulted in a strong surge of publications on the topic. This literature has already provided much insight into the individual-level correlates of affective polarization, but we know much less about how the political context in which voters choose can contribute to affective polarization. We theorize that the intensity of election campaigns increases affective polarization, which we capture through indicators of (a) campaign spending, from both in-parties and out-parties, and (b) electoral competitiveness. Using the British case and leveraging within-country and over-time variation in these indicators, we find support for our expectations. Specifically, we show first that in-party spending is positively associated with affective polarization, leading both to increased in-party like and out-party dislike. Second, we show that competitiveness is positively associated with out-party dislike—individuals who experience more competitive electoral contests grow to dislike parties that they compete with to a greater degree. We contend that this mechanism could contribute to the within-country variations in affective polarization found in previous research.

对情感两极分化对治理和民主的影响的担忧导致了有关该主题的出版物的激增。这些文献已经为情感极化的个人层面相关性提供了很多见解，但我们对选民选择的政治背景如何有助于情感极化知之甚少。我们的理论是，竞选活动的强度增加了情感两极分化，我们通过以下指标来捕捉(a)党内和党外的竞选支出，以及(b)选举竞争力。利用英国的案例，并利用这些指标的国内和长期变化，我们发现我们的预期得到了支持。具体来说，我们首先表明，党内支出与情感两极分化呈正相关，导致党内喜欢和党外厌恶的增加。其次，我们表明，竞争力与党外厌恶正相关——经历过竞争更激烈的选举竞争的个人会在更大程度上不喜欢与他们竞争的政党。我们认为，这一机制可能有助于在国家内部的情感两极分化发现在以往的研究。

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引用次数: 0

Effects of a politician’s reputation for providing electoral clientelism: A theory with evidence from Brazil 政治家提供选举庇护主义的声誉的影响：一个有巴西证据的理论

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103043

Eduardo Mello , Will Jennings , Lawrence McKay , Oto Montagner

This article offers a new theory of how reputations for electoral clientelism affect voter behaviour. Existing accounts emphasise direct exchanges between candidates and clients, but often overlook how broader audiences evaluate these practices. We develop a formal model showing that voters’ preferences over clientelistic candidates are shaped by their trust in political institutions: when trust is low, voters—whether clients or not—may view clientelism as a credible signal of goodwill and effectiveness. When trust is high, they favour programmatic candidates instead. We test the model’s predictions through a conjoint survey experiment conducted with 2148 Brazilian voters. We find that reputations for clientelism increase electoral support, especially among citizens with lower institutional trust. The findings advance theories of clientelism and electoral accountability by incorporating public perceptions, not just private exchanges, into the strategic calculus of candidates and voters.

这篇文章提供了一种新的理论，说明选举庇护主义的声誉如何影响选民的行为。现有的描述强调候选人和客户之间的直接交流，但往往忽视了更广泛的受众如何评价这些做法。我们开发了一个正式的模型，表明选民对庇护主义候选人的偏好是由他们对政治机构的信任决定的：当信任度低时，选民——无论是否为客户——可能会将庇护主义视为善意和有效性的可靠信号。当信任度较高时，他们转而青睐纲领性候选人。我们通过对2148名巴西选民进行的联合调查实验来测试模型的预测。我们发现，裙带关系的名声增加了选举支持，尤其是在机构信任度较低的公民中。通过将公众的看法（而不仅仅是私人交流）纳入候选人和选民的战略考量，研究结果推进了裙带主义和选举问责制理论。

引用次数: 0

Does switching pay off? The impact of parliamentary party instability on individual electoral performance 换工作有回报吗？议会政党不稳定对个人选举表现的影响

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103037

Allan Sikk , Sona N. Golder , Raimondas Ibenskas , Paulina Sałek-Lipcean

Members of parliament (MP) may change their parliamentary party group (PPG) for a variety of reasons including the desire to improve their electoral prospects. But is changing PPGs associated with better electoral performance and outcomes? We show that switchers generally perform worse than non-switchers, though electoral outcomes for switchers vary depending on the nature of their switch. Using an original dataset on Polish MPs since the early 2000s, we examine how party switching affects their electoral performance in terms of (a) running again, (b) re-election success and (c) personal preference votes. We find that switchers are much less likely to seek reelection compared to non-switchers. Among switchers, those not associated with a PPG at the end of the term are less likely to run again than others. Switching is related to weaker electoral performance and re-election success, but the effect depends on the type of switching. While switching is a risky endeavour, some types of switching are riskier than others.

国会议员（MP）可能会出于各种原因改变他们的议会党团（PPG），包括希望改善他们的选举前景。但是，改变PPGs与更好的选举表现和结果有关吗？我们表明，切换者通常比非切换者表现更差，尽管切换者的选举结果因其切换的性质而异。使用自21世纪初以来波兰国会议员的原始数据集，我们研究了政党转换如何影响他们在以下方面的选举表现：(a)再次参选，(b)连任成功和(c)个人偏好投票。我们发现，与没有改变立场的人相比，改变立场的人寻求连任的可能性要小得多。在转换者中，那些在任期结束时没有与PPG联系的人比其他人更不可能再次运行。转换与较弱的选举表现和连任成功有关，但效果取决于转换的类型。虽然转换是一项有风险的努力，但某些类型的转换比其他类型的转换风险更大。

引用次数: 0

Finding your perfect match nearby. A test of proximity and issue salience voting in local elections 在附近找到你的完美伴侣。地方选举中临近性和议题显著性投票的测试

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2026.103044

Raf Reuse , Dieter Stiers

Ideology is considered one of the main determinants of the vote. However, most research focuses on national elections, leaving the role of policy preferences in local voting behaviour largely unexplored. This gap is surprising, because the role of ideology is more contested in local than in national elections. Whereas some claim that managing local communities is a mostly technocratic affair, others argue that this still allows for ideological divisions between parties and voters. This article contributes to this debate by testing proximity and issue salience voting in local elections in Flanders. Do voters take the positions and issue attention of local parties into account when they cast their ballot at the local level? Using exit poll data combined with a novel measure on local parties' left-right position and issue salience, we find that ideology does matter in determining voter choices. Our results suggest that local elections might be less different from national elections than often assumed.

意识形态被认为是决定投票结果的主要因素之一。然而，大多数研究都集中在全国选举上，使得政策偏好在地方投票行为中的作用在很大程度上未被探索。这种差距令人惊讶，因为意识形态的作用在地方选举中比在全国选举中更有争议。尽管一些人声称管理地方社区主要是技术官僚的事情，但其他人认为这仍然允许政党和选民之间的意识形态分歧。本文通过测试法兰德斯地方选举中的接近性投票和突出性投票，为这场辩论做出了贡献。选民在地方一级投票时是否考虑到地方政党的立场和关注问题？利用出口民调数据，结合对地方政党左右立场和议题显著性的新测量，我们发现意识形态在决定选民选择方面确实起着重要作用。我们的研究结果表明，地方选举与全国选举的差异可能没有人们通常认为的那么大。

引用次数: 0

Ableist institutions and party selection processes: Exploring the political recruitment of disabled candidates 残疾主义制度和政党选拔过程：探索残疾候选人的政治招募

IF 2.3 2区社会学 Q1 POLITICAL SCIENCE

Electoral Studies

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2025.103040

Elizabeth Evans , Stefanie Reher

Political parties in the UK and elsewhere have, to varying degrees, tried to diversify the pool of candidates from which they can select. Attempts to eradicate the range of institutional and cultural barriers experienced by candidates from under-represented groups, such as women and racially minoritized communities, are beginning to bear fruit. However, less attention has been paid to the specific processes and norms which might make it harder for disabled people to get selected as candidates for elected office. Accordingly, this study takes the UK as its case study to address two inter related questions: 1) what are the political parties doing to make candidate selection more accessible for disabled people?; and 2) what are the experiences of disabled people who participate in the candidate selection process? Drawing upon qualitative analysis of formal party rules and processes, alongside interviews undertaken with over 80 disabled candidates, politicians, and party activists from across the political spectrum, we find a great deal of variation in party approaches. We also identify gaps between formal rules adopted to ensure accessibility and the experiences of disabled candidates. Along the way we also note some of the methodological and empirical challenges of studying candidate selection processes in relation to disability.

英国和其他地方的政党都在不同程度上试图使候选人多样化，以供他们选择。为消除妇女和种族少数群体等代表性不足群体的候选人遇到的各种体制和文化障碍所作的努力已开始取得成果。但是，对可能使残疾人更难被选为选举职位候选人的具体程序和规范的注意较少。因此，本研究以英国为个案，探讨两个相互关联的问题：1)政党采取了哪些措施，使残疾人更容易选择候选人；2)参与候选人选拔过程的残疾人的经历是什么？通过对正式政党规则和流程的定性分析，以及对80多名残疾候选人、政治家和政党活动人士的采访，我们发现政党的做法存在很大差异。我们还确定了为确保无障碍而采用的正式规则与残疾候选人的体验之间的差距。在此过程中，我们还注意到研究与残疾有关的候选人选择过程的一些方法和经验挑战。

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