利用考克斯回归建立西龙目岛地区疟疾患者康复模型

Siti Dwi Khairun Rahmatin Usman, M. Hadijati, Nurul Fitriyani
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摘要

疟疾是西龙目岛地区的健康问题之一。疟疾阳性病例有 413 例,因此有必要研究影响疟疾患者康复的模式和因素。使用的分析方法是利用考克斯比例危险回归法进行生存分析。本研究使用的数据以二手数据的形式从西龙目岛地区2019年至2020年所有疟疾疾病患者的病历数据中获取,因变量以疟疾患者的康复时间为形式,9个自变量疑似影响疟疾患者的康复。本研究旨在根据 Cox 回归确定疟疾患者的康复模型,并确定影响西龙目岛地区疟疾患者康复的因素。 根据使用 Cox 比例危险回归法进行的生存分析结果,得出了影响疟疾患者康复时间的两个重要变量的最佳模型:寄生虫类型变量和怀孕或未怀孕的发生率。根据危险比值可以解释该模型,即寄生虫类型变量间日疟原虫在治疗后一个月内痊愈的概率比恶性疟原虫快 2 542 倍。相比之下,混合疟原虫类别的寄生虫在治疗后一个月内痊愈的概率是间日疟原虫的 1.108 倍,而怀孕或未怀孕变量类别的怀孕患者在治疗后一个月内痊愈的概率是未怀孕患者的 2 307 倍。
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Modelling the Recovery of Malaria Patients in West Lombok District Using Cox Regression
Malaria is one of the health problems in West Lombok Regency. There are 413 positive malaria cases, so it is necessary to research the models and factors affecting malaria sufferers' recovery. The analysis used is survival analysis using the Cox Proportional Hazard Regression method. The data used in this study is in the form of secondary data obtained from medical record data from all patients with malaria disease in West Lombok Regency from 2019 to 2020, with dependent variables in the form of recovery time of malaria patients and nine independent variables that are suspected of affecting the recovery of malaria sufferers. This study aims to determine a recovery model for malaria sufferers based on Cox regression and determine the factors that influence the recovery of malaria sufferers in West Lombok Regency. Based on the survival analysis results with the Cox Proportional hazard Regression method, the best model was obtained with two significant variables affecting the recovery time of malaria patients: the parasite type variable and the incidence of pregnancy or not getting pregnant. The model can be interpreted based on hazard ratio values that the variable type of parasite category Plasmodium vivax has a probability of being able to recover within one month of treatment by 2,542 times faster than Plasmodium falciparum. In comparison, the type of parasite in the Plasmodium mix category has a probability of being able to recover within one month of treatment 1.108 times faster than Plasmodium vivax,  and for the pregnant or non-pregnant variables for the category of pregnant patients had a 2,307 times faster probability of recovery within one month of treatment compared to non-pregnant patients.
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