Evolution Model, Mechanism, and Performance of Urban Park Green Areas in the Grand Canal of China

Urban park green areas are part of territorial space planning, shouldering the mission of providing residents with high-quality ecological products and public space. Using a combination of several measurement models such as the BCG (Boston Consulting Group) matrix, ESDA (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis), MLR (Machine Learning Regression), GWR (Geographically Weighted Regression), and GeoDetector, this paper presents an empirical study on the changes in Urban Park Green Areas (UPGAs) in the Grand Canal of China. By quantitatively measuring the spatio–temporal evolution patterns of UPGAs, this study reveals the driving mechanisms behind them and proposes policy recommendations for planning and management based on performance evaluation. The spatio–temporal evolution of UPGAs and their performance in China’s Grand Canal are characterized by significant spatial heterogeneity and correlation, with diversified development patterns such as HH (High-scale–High-growth), HL (High-scale–Low-growth), LH (Low-scale–High-growth), and LL (Low-scale–Low-growth) emerging. The evolution performance is dominated by positive oversupply and positive equilibrium, where undersupply coexists with oversupply. Therefore, this paper recommends the implementation of a zoning strategy in the future spatial planning of ecological green areas, urban parks, and green infrastructure. It is also recommended to design differentiated construction strategies and management policies for each zoning area, while promoting inter-city mutual cooperation in the joint preparation and implementation of integrated symbiosis planning. Furthermore, the spatio–temporal evolution of the UPGAs in the Grand Canal of China is influenced by many factors with very complex dynamic mechanisms, and there are significant differences in the nature, intensity, spatial effects, and interaction effects between different factors. Therefore, in the future management of ecological green areas, urban parks, and green infrastructure, it is necessary to interconnect policies to enhance their synergies in population, aging, industry and economy, and ecological civilization to maximize the policy performance.