尼日利亚的外国援助与可持续发展:动态最小二乘法的应用

Falade A. Olufemi Olusegun
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摘要

外援对捐助国和受援国的影响在现有的研究和文献中基本没有定论。这是因为在外援对可持续发展的益处方面存在着各种正反论点。因此,本研究探讨了 1986-2021 年间外国援助对尼日利亚可持续发展的影响。研究使用了增强型迪基富勒(ADF)单位根检验、约翰森协整检验、动态最小二乘法(DOLS)和格兰杰因果检验。 ADF 结果显示,可持续发展、外国援助、汇率、通货膨胀率和贸易开放度在一级差上是静止的。约翰森协整检验也证实了变量之间的长期关系。DOLS 结果表明,外援、汇率和贸易开放度与可持续发展的直接联系在 5%的水平上显著;而外援与可持续发展的直接联系在 10%的水平上显著。这表明,以不同形式流入的外国援助对资源保护至关重要。另外,通货膨胀率与可持续发展的反向显著联系为 5%。此外,外国援助与可持续发展之间还存在双向因果关系。研究得出的结论是,符合环境可持续性的不同形式的外国援助、汇率稳定和高出口促进了尼日利亚的可持续发展增长,但螺旋式的通货膨胀则会使尼日利亚的可持续发展恶化。因此,建议政府宣布对环境问题采取紧急措施,以确保增加用于环境可持续性的外援流量。
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Foreign Aids and Sustainable Development in Nigeria: An Application of Dynamic Least Squares Approach
The impact of foreign aid in donor and recipient countries is largely unsettled amongst existing studies, as well as, literature. This is attributed to the various arguments for and against the benefits of foreign aid, as it relates to sustainable development. As such, the study examined the effect of foreign aids on sustainable development in Nigeria from 1986-2021. The study used Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) unit root test, Johansen Co-integration test, Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS) and Granger Causality test.  The ADF result showed that sustainable development, foreign aids, exchange rate, inflation rate and trade openness were stationary at first level difference. Also Johansen co-integration test confirmed a long-run relationship between the variables. The DOLS result revealed that, foreign aid, exchange rate and trade openness were significant with each exhibiting a direct link with sustainable development at 5%; while, that of foreign aid was at 10%. This suggests that inflow of foreign aids in different forms is essential for resource conservation. Also, inflation rate showed an inverse and significant link with sustainable development at 5%. In addition, a bi-directional causality was established between foreign aid and sustainable development. The study concluded that foreign aids in different forms, exchange rates stability and high exportation that comply with environmental sustainability boost Nigeria's sustainable development growth, but spiral inflation worsens it. Thus, it is advised that government should declare an emergency over environmental issues in order to guarantee an increase in the flow of foreign aid into environmental sustainability.
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