国内动荡与转移视线假说:线性关系?

IF 0.8 Q3 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS International Area Studies Review Pub Date : 2023-12-25 DOI:10.1177/22338659231222577
Weidong Zhang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

为什么个案研究显示出有利于国家转用行为的证据,而定量研究却往往得出许多喜忧参半的结果?在本文中,我通过论证内部冲突与外部转移行为之间存在曲线关系而非线性关系,来帮助解释这一难题。通过使用 "战争问题相关性"(ICOW)项目的数据,研究 1962 年至 2001 年主要发生在西半球的争议问题,我发现国内动荡程度适中的国家最有可能发起军事化的国家间冲突。此外,我还发现,在精英动乱时期,国家更有可能采取声东击西的行为。相比之下,大规模动乱不太可能促使国家利用外交政策冒险来争取国内支持。这一发现有助于加深我们对导致转移行动的复杂条件的理解。
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Domestic turmoil and diversionary hypothesis: A linear relationship?
Why do individual case studies reveal evidence in favor of diversionary behavior by states, yet quantitative studies often produce many mixed results? In this paper, I help to explain this puzzle by arguing that there is a curvilinear relationship between internal conflict and external diversionary behavior as opposed to a linear one. By looking at contentious issues mainly in the Western Hemisphere from 1962 to 2001 using data from the Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) project, I find that countries with moderate levels of domestic unrest are most likely to initiate a militarized interstate conflict. Furthermore, I find that in times of elite unrest, states are more likely to have diversionary behaviors. In contrast, mass unrest is unlikely to incentivize states to use foreign policy adventures to rally domestic support. Such a finding helps deepen our understanding of the complex conditions leading to diversionary actions.
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来源期刊
International Area Studies Review
International Area Studies Review INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS-
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
14.30%
发文量
19
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