Pub Date : 2023-12-25DOI: 10.1177/22338659231222577
Weidong Zhang
Why do individual case studies reveal evidence in favor of diversionary behavior by states, yet quantitative studies often produce many mixed results? In this paper, I help to explain this puzzle by arguing that there is a curvilinear relationship between internal conflict and external diversionary behavior as opposed to a linear one. By looking at contentious issues mainly in the Western Hemisphere from 1962 to 2001 using data from the Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) project, I find that countries with moderate levels of domestic unrest are most likely to initiate a militarized interstate conflict. Furthermore, I find that in times of elite unrest, states are more likely to have diversionary behaviors. In contrast, mass unrest is unlikely to incentivize states to use foreign policy adventures to rally domestic support. Such a finding helps deepen our understanding of the complex conditions leading to diversionary actions.
{"title":"Domestic turmoil and diversionary hypothesis: A linear relationship?","authors":"Weidong Zhang","doi":"10.1177/22338659231222577","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/22338659231222577","url":null,"abstract":"Why do individual case studies reveal evidence in favor of diversionary behavior by states, yet quantitative studies often produce many mixed results? In this paper, I help to explain this puzzle by arguing that there is a curvilinear relationship between internal conflict and external diversionary behavior as opposed to a linear one. By looking at contentious issues mainly in the Western Hemisphere from 1962 to 2001 using data from the Issue Correlates of War (ICOW) project, I find that countries with moderate levels of domestic unrest are most likely to initiate a militarized interstate conflict. Furthermore, I find that in times of elite unrest, states are more likely to have diversionary behaviors. In contrast, mass unrest is unlikely to incentivize states to use foreign policy adventures to rally domestic support. Such a finding helps deepen our understanding of the complex conditions leading to diversionary actions.","PeriodicalId":44499,"journal":{"name":"International Area Studies Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-12-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139158473","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study, by conducting an original survey experiment in Japan, uncovers how Japanese consider nuclear weapons. While it has been believed that the strong antinuclear weapons sentiment dominates the people in Japan, the recent changes in its national security environment may change the people’s view on the weapons. Our experiment suggests that the antinuclear sentiment in Japan is not so robust and they clearly prefer American nukes over Russian ones. Also, the study shows that the Japanese would consider nuclear attack on North Korea as more acceptable, and they care less about the type of targets, civilian or military, and the size of the weapon.
{"title":"Another test of nuclear taboo: An experimental study in Japan","authors":"Yipeng Cheng, Ryoma Eguchi, Haruki Nakagawa, Tatsuru Shibata, Atsushi Tago","doi":"10.1177/22338659231212417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/22338659231212417","url":null,"abstract":"This study, by conducting an original survey experiment in Japan, uncovers how Japanese consider nuclear weapons. While it has been believed that the strong antinuclear weapons sentiment dominates the people in Japan, the recent changes in its national security environment may change the people’s view on the weapons. Our experiment suggests that the antinuclear sentiment in Japan is not so robust and they clearly prefer American nukes over Russian ones. Also, the study shows that the Japanese would consider nuclear attack on North Korea as more acceptable, and they care less about the type of targets, civilian or military, and the size of the weapon.","PeriodicalId":44499,"journal":{"name":"International Area Studies Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135539398","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-11DOI: 10.1177/22338659231194945
Lars Pelke
This article systematically reanalyses the long-run effects of democracy on economic prosperity by using new Varieties of Democracy and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita data for a panel data set between 1789 and 2019. Adopting (a) dynamic panel strategies controlling for country and year-fixed effects and (b) newly introduced matching methods for time-series cross-sectional data, the findings clearly indicate that democracy substantively increases economic development. My reanalysis of Acemoglu et al.'s seminal study indicates that in the long-run democracy has a positive average effect on GDP per capita of around 17% for the period between 1789 and 2019. Overall, the findings strengthen the existing literature by using a large sample of countries in the entire 19th and 20th centuries and measuring democracy and liberalization episodes in a more nuanced and rigorous fashion.
{"title":"Reanalysing the link between democracy and economic development","authors":"Lars Pelke","doi":"10.1177/22338659231194945","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/22338659231194945","url":null,"abstract":"This article systematically reanalyses the long-run effects of democracy on economic prosperity by using new Varieties of Democracy and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita data for a panel data set between 1789 and 2019. Adopting (a) dynamic panel strategies controlling for country and year-fixed effects and (b) newly introduced matching methods for time-series cross-sectional data, the findings clearly indicate that democracy substantively increases economic development. My reanalysis of Acemoglu et al.'s seminal study indicates that in the long-run democracy has a positive average effect on GDP per capita of around 17% for the period between 1789 and 2019. Overall, the findings strengthen the existing literature by using a large sample of countries in the entire 19th and 20th centuries and measuring democracy and liberalization episodes in a more nuanced and rigorous fashion.","PeriodicalId":44499,"journal":{"name":"International Area Studies Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135981526","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-06DOI: 10.1177/22338659231194943
D. Panke, S. Stapel
Regional cooperation often leads to the establishment of regional international organizations (RIOs). Due to the increasing number of RIOs, their growing membership size and their broadening policy scope, RIOs frequently overlap with each other with regard to membership and mandate. Overlaps may lead to conflicts amongst affected organizations and potentially limit the prospects for regional prosperity and peace. Although overlapping regionalism has become ubiquitous in many regions, we do not systematically know the extent of the phenomenon. Therefore, the paper presents an original dataset about overlapping regionalism and introduces a typology of overlaps between two RIOs. The OVREG dataset includes both raw data of shared member states and policy competencies and information about distinct types of overlap between affected RIOs for 73 RIOs, 193 states and 344 policy competencies in the period between 1945 and 2020. A descriptive analysis of trajectories and patterns shows that overlapping regionalism in general and the different overlap types have spread over time and across world regions. Nevertheless, regional particularities persist. Thus, the OVREG dataset allows for examining the causes of overlaps, the potential negative consequences of overlapping regionalism and the variety of coping mechanisms at the disposal of affected RIOs.
{"title":"Overlapping regionalism around the world: Introducing the overlapping regionalism dataset","authors":"D. Panke, S. Stapel","doi":"10.1177/22338659231194943","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/22338659231194943","url":null,"abstract":"Regional cooperation often leads to the establishment of regional international organizations (RIOs). Due to the increasing number of RIOs, their growing membership size and their broadening policy scope, RIOs frequently overlap with each other with regard to membership and mandate. Overlaps may lead to conflicts amongst affected organizations and potentially limit the prospects for regional prosperity and peace. Although overlapping regionalism has become ubiquitous in many regions, we do not systematically know the extent of the phenomenon. Therefore, the paper presents an original dataset about overlapping regionalism and introduces a typology of overlaps between two RIOs. The OVREG dataset includes both raw data of shared member states and policy competencies and information about distinct types of overlap between affected RIOs for 73 RIOs, 193 states and 344 policy competencies in the period between 1945 and 2020. A descriptive analysis of trajectories and patterns shows that overlapping regionalism in general and the different overlap types have spread over time and across world regions. Nevertheless, regional particularities persist. Thus, the OVREG dataset allows for examining the causes of overlaps, the potential negative consequences of overlapping regionalism and the variety of coping mechanisms at the disposal of affected RIOs.","PeriodicalId":44499,"journal":{"name":"International Area Studies Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-09-06","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72370226","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-31DOI: 10.1177/22338659231194923
Tianjing Liao
This research provides a state-level systemic explanation for antigovernment insurgencies. We posit that state international income position influences antigovernment movements, which effect, however, hinges on the level of trade openness. By analyzing 157 states from 1990 through 2018, it is found that for a state having an unclosed market, its internationally relative income level is negatively associated with mass antigovernment protests. This study implies that trade liberalization may exert a context-specific impact on domestic political insurgency, which helps understand why trade liberalization seems to be a reason for mass anti-government movements in some contexts while enhancing a regime in other cases.
{"title":"State international income position, trade openness, and mass antigovernment protests","authors":"Tianjing Liao","doi":"10.1177/22338659231194923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/22338659231194923","url":null,"abstract":"This research provides a state-level systemic explanation for antigovernment insurgencies. We posit that state international income position influences antigovernment movements, which effect, however, hinges on the level of trade openness. By analyzing 157 states from 1990 through 2018, it is found that for a state having an unclosed market, its internationally relative income level is negatively associated with mass antigovernment protests. This study implies that trade liberalization may exert a context-specific impact on domestic political insurgency, which helps understand why trade liberalization seems to be a reason for mass anti-government movements in some contexts while enhancing a regime in other cases.","PeriodicalId":44499,"journal":{"name":"International Area Studies Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75236293","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-15DOI: 10.1177/22338659231194946
Bertha Nyarire Makilagi, Jinhwan Oh
Based on the gravity model, this study examines the determinants of trade flows between Tanzania and its trading partners and attempts to predict the country's trade potential. Using a panel dataset of Tanzania's trade flows of 100 countries from 2000 to 2016, this study finds that the results are consistent with the predictions of the gravity model, with positive and negative coefficients for gross domestic product and distance, respectively. The predicted trade potential reveals that neighboring countries and some middle and superpowers have significant trade potential. Considering the important contribution of trade to economic growth and notwithstanding Tanzania's active membership in regional economic communities, such as the East African Cooperation, Southern African Development Cooperation, and the anticipated engagement in the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, this study provides policy recommendations to reduce trade barriers and diversify production to promote intra-African trade and enhance trade with the rest of the world.
{"title":"What determines Tanzania's trade? A gravity approach","authors":"Bertha Nyarire Makilagi, Jinhwan Oh","doi":"10.1177/22338659231194946","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/22338659231194946","url":null,"abstract":"Based on the gravity model, this study examines the determinants of trade flows between Tanzania and its trading partners and attempts to predict the country's trade potential. Using a panel dataset of Tanzania's trade flows of 100 countries from 2000 to 2016, this study finds that the results are consistent with the predictions of the gravity model, with positive and negative coefficients for gross domestic product and distance, respectively. The predicted trade potential reveals that neighboring countries and some middle and superpowers have significant trade potential. Considering the important contribution of trade to economic growth and notwithstanding Tanzania's active membership in regional economic communities, such as the East African Cooperation, Southern African Development Cooperation, and the anticipated engagement in the African Continental Free Trade Agreement, this study provides policy recommendations to reduce trade barriers and diversify production to promote intra-African trade and enhance trade with the rest of the world.","PeriodicalId":44499,"journal":{"name":"International Area Studies Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90394357","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-15DOI: 10.1177/22338659231194941
Rajiv Kumar
Coronavirus disease 2019 claimed more than three million lives worldwide in 2020, giving national governments the most urgent task for 2021 to achieve high vaccination rates to save lives. The World Health Organization declared that “vaccines are the most critical tool to end the pandemic and save lives.” In this context, South Korea (hereafter, Korea) achieved a remarkable milestone by outperforming the United Kingdom and the United States in vaccinations rate, where the world's earliest vaccination programs started. Thanks to its high vaccination rate, Korea recorded less than 100 deaths per million populations in 2021 compared to more than 1000 in the United Kingdom and the United States. Why Korea leaped ahead of the United Kingdom and the United States in rapid vaccinations that saved many lives? To answer this question, I first conceptualize contemporary Korea as a developmental state which retained its institutional capacity despite its transition from authoritarianism to liberal democracy, distinguishing it from the UK and the US's neoliberal regulatory states, where reforms hallowed out state capacity. I then advance two core claims. First, Korea surpassed the United Kingdom and the United States in vaccine rollout because of its developmental state-type goal-oriented autonomous policymaking and strong institutional capacity, manifested as Korea's central agency deployed a command and control vaccination program led by a coherent health bureaucracy. Second, the Korean state's strategic intervention in the market and its capacity to foster public–private partnerships to realize national goals boosted its vaccinations. Finally, the paper suggests how neoliberal regulatory states in the global north can learn lessons from the Korean experience in rebuilding state capacity to deal with the future global pandemic.
{"title":"Taking the developmental state seriously: Why South Korea outperformed neoliberal regulatory states in rapid coronavirus disease 2019 vaccinations and saving lives","authors":"Rajiv Kumar","doi":"10.1177/22338659231194941","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/22338659231194941","url":null,"abstract":"Coronavirus disease 2019 claimed more than three million lives worldwide in 2020, giving national governments the most urgent task for 2021 to achieve high vaccination rates to save lives. The World Health Organization declared that “vaccines are the most critical tool to end the pandemic and save lives.” In this context, South Korea (hereafter, Korea) achieved a remarkable milestone by outperforming the United Kingdom and the United States in vaccinations rate, where the world's earliest vaccination programs started. Thanks to its high vaccination rate, Korea recorded less than 100 deaths per million populations in 2021 compared to more than 1000 in the United Kingdom and the United States. Why Korea leaped ahead of the United Kingdom and the United States in rapid vaccinations that saved many lives? To answer this question, I first conceptualize contemporary Korea as a developmental state which retained its institutional capacity despite its transition from authoritarianism to liberal democracy, distinguishing it from the UK and the US's neoliberal regulatory states, where reforms hallowed out state capacity. I then advance two core claims. First, Korea surpassed the United Kingdom and the United States in vaccine rollout because of its developmental state-type goal-oriented autonomous policymaking and strong institutional capacity, manifested as Korea's central agency deployed a command and control vaccination program led by a coherent health bureaucracy. Second, the Korean state's strategic intervention in the market and its capacity to foster public–private partnerships to realize national goals boosted its vaccinations. Finally, the paper suggests how neoliberal regulatory states in the global north can learn lessons from the Korean experience in rebuilding state capacity to deal with the future global pandemic.","PeriodicalId":44499,"journal":{"name":"International Area Studies Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75673773","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-15DOI: 10.1177/22338659231194930
Indra de Soysa, Jorunn Kaasa, J. K. Rød
Large segments of populations in the industrialized West believe that immigrants cause crime. Some scholars suggest that it is generous welfare that attracts so-called “welfare magnets,” increasing the possibility that the worst kind of immigrant locates in strong welfare states. Empirical studies on crime, however, do not support the view that immigrants are more to blame for crime than natives, although some immigrant groups might be overrepresented in crime statistics. We address this question by examining if immigration increases crime within Norwegian municipalities, thereby, indirectly testing whether Norway, one of the most generous welfare states, acts as a magnet for “bad” immigrants. Our results do not support the view that a strong welfare state with a lenient penal system generates moral hazard, nor that welfare states systematically attract the “bad” immigrants. These results support a host of studies from other industrialized countries, particularly the US, showing higher immigrant populations associated with lower crime. The results from Norway, thus, while showing some support for the view that welfare potentially cushions the many pathologies associated with crime and victimization, mitigating the development of criminogenic environments, are also in line with an emerging academic consensus. This consensus suggests that immigration reduces crime, which is good news for progressive policy and for generating a more nuanced discourse on the subject.
{"title":"Immigration and the “Welfare Magnet” hypothesis: An examination of municipality-level crime in Norway, 2007–2016","authors":"Indra de Soysa, Jorunn Kaasa, J. K. Rød","doi":"10.1177/22338659231194930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/22338659231194930","url":null,"abstract":"Large segments of populations in the industrialized West believe that immigrants cause crime. Some scholars suggest that it is generous welfare that attracts so-called “welfare magnets,” increasing the possibility that the worst kind of immigrant locates in strong welfare states. Empirical studies on crime, however, do not support the view that immigrants are more to blame for crime than natives, although some immigrant groups might be overrepresented in crime statistics. We address this question by examining if immigration increases crime within Norwegian municipalities, thereby, indirectly testing whether Norway, one of the most generous welfare states, acts as a magnet for “bad” immigrants. Our results do not support the view that a strong welfare state with a lenient penal system generates moral hazard, nor that welfare states systematically attract the “bad” immigrants. These results support a host of studies from other industrialized countries, particularly the US, showing higher immigrant populations associated with lower crime. The results from Norway, thus, while showing some support for the view that welfare potentially cushions the many pathologies associated with crime and victimization, mitigating the development of criminogenic environments, are also in line with an emerging academic consensus. This consensus suggests that immigration reduces crime, which is good news for progressive policy and for generating a more nuanced discourse on the subject.","PeriodicalId":44499,"journal":{"name":"International Area Studies Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83361000","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"A Study on Value-Based Trade Diplomay Strategies: Comparative Analysis of Korea-US FTA and Korea-China FTA","authors":"Hyun-yong Park","doi":"10.21212/iasr.27.2.5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21212/iasr.27.2.5","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44499,"journal":{"name":"International Area Studies Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86395822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Effects of Regional Perception and National Strategy Conception on the Indo-Pacific Maritime Strategies of U.S. Allies: case of Japan and Australia","authors":"Seung-Hugh Shin","doi":"10.21212/iasr.27.2.7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21212/iasr.27.2.7","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":44499,"journal":{"name":"International Area Studies Review","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2023-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85502799","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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