通货膨胀与金融

K. Botos
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究集中于匈牙利国内关于当代通货膨胀原因的讨论:通货膨胀的主要原因是什么,如何对其进行排序。研究试图确定简单的货币政策方法是否适合于阻止通货膨胀。研究方法是对近期专业文章的综述和对中央统计局出版物数据的分析。研究得出结论,匈牙利的通货膨胀有几个内部和外部原因:消费能力下降,特别是在COVID流行的时候;能源价格因乌克兰战争而上涨;布鲁塞尔为匈牙利保留的货币;货币政策行动的时机不当;国际收支不平衡和汇率演变的作用--直接和间接的推动力;继承的国家债务和累积的工资扭曲的作用(现在要纠正);以及主要依靠增值税的税收政策。研究的结论是,仅靠自主的货币政策行动无法应对通货膨胀,因为国家政策无法摆脱国际货币市场的影响。现在是改变税收政策的时候了,应该依靠累进所得税来制定结构性更强的税收政策。
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Inflation and finance
The study concentrates on the discussion in Hungary about the causes of contemporary inflation: what are the main causes of it and how to rank them. It tries to establish whether the simple methods of monetary policy are appropriate to stop inflation. The method of the study is an overview of recent professional articles and the analysis of the data of Central Statistical Office publications. It concludes that the Hungarian inflation has several internal and external causes: uncovered spending power especially in time of the COVID epidemic, the growing energy prices because of the Ukrainian war, money retention for Hungary in Brussels, the inadequatetiming of monetary policy actions, the role of imbalance of payments and exchange rates evolution – direct and indirect impulses-, the role of inherited state debts and the accumulated wage distortions which is now to correct, and the tax policy which relies mainly on VAT. The conclusion of the study is that only by autonomous monetary policy actions cannot deal with inflation, because the national policy cannot get rid of the international money markets. It is time to change the tax policy for a more structured one relying on the progressive income taxes.
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