评估贸易对老挝人民民主共和国毕业的影响

Piya Wongpit
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摘要

老挝人民民主共和国在经济发展方面取得了令人瞩目的进步,但要实现到 2026 年脱离最不发达国家地位的目标,仍面临许多挑战。脱离最不发达国家地位也伴随着一些挑战,包括逐步取消与最不发达国家地位相关的国际支持措施,这些都需要加以解决。本文的目的是找出其他国家从最不发达国家地位毕业的经验教训;分析最不发达国家地位下的市场贸易准入和预期影响,以及评估私营部门对最不发达国家毕业的看法。出口潜力指标用于评估从最不发达国家毕业后的潜在产品。由于关税优惠没有变化,而且泰国、越南和中国市场的出口潜力巨大,因此预计毕业后对出口的影响较小。然而,脱离最不发达国家地位后,预计将对欧盟市场的出口产生重大影响。
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EVALUATING THE EFFECTS OF TRADE ON LAO PDR'S LDC GRADUATION
Lao PDR has achieved remarkable progress in terms of economic development, but it still faces many challenges to achieve its goal of graduation from LDC status by 2026. LDC graduation also comes with some challenges, including the phasing out of international support measures that are associated with LDC status, which will need to be addressed. The objectives of this paper are to identify lessons learned from other countries’ LDC graduation; analyze trade access to the market and expected impacts under LDC and evaluate the perceptions of private sectors on LDC graduation. The Export Potential Indicator was applied to evaluate potential products after graduation from LDC. As there are no changes in tariff preferences and huge export potential in Thailand, Vietnam, and China markets therefore the impact on exports after is expected to be minor. However, LDC graduation is projected to significantly impact exports to the European Union market.
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