Senescence evolution under the catastrophic accumulation of deleterious mutations

For aging to evolve, selection against mortality must decrease with age. This prevailing view in the evolutionary theory of senescence posits that mutations with deleterious effects happening late in life—when purging selection is weak—may become fixed via genetic drift in the germline, and produce a senescent phenotype. Theory, however, has focused primarily on growing populations and the fate of single deleterious mutations. In a mathematical model, we demonstrate that relaxing both of these simplifying assumptions leads to unrealistic outcomes. In density-regulated populations, previously fixed deleterious mutations should promote the fixation of other deleterious mutations that lead to senescence at ever younger ages, until death necessarily occurs at sexual maturity. This sequential fixation of deleterious mutations is not promoted by a decrease in population size, but is due to a change in the strength of selection. In an individual-based model, we also show that such evolutionary dynamics should lead to the extinction of most populations. Our models therefore make rather unrealistic predictions, underlining the need for a reappraisal of current theories. In this respect, we have further assumed in our models that the deleterious effects of mutations can only occur at certain ages, marked, for instance, by somatic or physiological changes. Under this condition, we show that the catastrophic accumulation of deleterious mutations in the germline can stop. This new finding emphasizes the importance of investigating somatic factors, as well as other mechanisms underlying the deleterious effects of mutations, to understand senescence evolution. More generally, our model therefore establishes that patterns of senescence in nature depend not only on the decrease in selection strength with age but also on any mechanism that stops the catastrophic accumulation of mutations.