{"title":"整合系统动力学和情景:基于个人经验的框架","authors":"Martin Kunc","doi":"10.1002/ffo2.174","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>System dynamics (SD) is a methodology to generate qualitative and quantitative models. SD has two main concepts that are highly suitable to use with scenarios: feedback processes that define the structure of sociotechnical systems and accumulation processes that are responsible for the dynamic behavior of systems over time. This article discusses a framework that integrates methodologically scenarios and SD. The integration can take multiple forms depending on the use of SD for creating or supporting scenarios. The framework is illustrated with multiple examples. Since SDs' practice uses processes similar to scenario practice, mutual enrichment between the communities can be highly successful.</p>","PeriodicalId":100567,"journal":{"name":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","volume":"6 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.174","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience\",\"authors\":\"Martin Kunc\",\"doi\":\"10.1002/ffo2.174\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>System dynamics (SD) is a methodology to generate qualitative and quantitative models. SD has two main concepts that are highly suitable to use with scenarios: feedback processes that define the structure of sociotechnical systems and accumulation processes that are responsible for the dynamic behavior of systems over time. This article discusses a framework that integrates methodologically scenarios and SD. The integration can take multiple forms depending on the use of SD for creating or supporting scenarios. The framework is illustrated with multiple examples. Since SDs' practice uses processes similar to scenario practice, mutual enrichment between the communities can be highly successful.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":100567,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE\",\"volume\":\"6 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-27\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/ffo2.174\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ffo2.174\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ffo2.174","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience
System dynamics (SD) is a methodology to generate qualitative and quantitative models. SD has two main concepts that are highly suitable to use with scenarios: feedback processes that define the structure of sociotechnical systems and accumulation processes that are responsible for the dynamic behavior of systems over time. This article discusses a framework that integrates methodologically scenarios and SD. The integration can take multiple forms depending on the use of SD for creating or supporting scenarios. The framework is illustrated with multiple examples. Since SDs' practice uses processes similar to scenario practice, mutual enrichment between the communities can be highly successful.