整合系统动力学和情景:基于个人经验的框架

Martin Kunc
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引用次数: 0

摘要

系统动力学(SD)是一种生成定性和定量模型的方法。系统动力学有两个非常适合与情景模拟结合使用的主要概念:定义社会技术系统结构的反馈过程和系统随时间变化的动态行为的积累过程。本文讨论了一个在方法论上将情景模拟与可持续发展相结合的框架。这种整合可以采取多种形式,取决于使用可持续发展来创建或支持情景。本文通过多个实例对该框架进行了说明。由于可持续发展实践使用的流程与情景实践类似,因此这两个群体之间的相互促进可以取得巨大成功。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。

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Integrating system dynamics and scenarios: A framework based on personal experience

System dynamics (SD) is a methodology to generate qualitative and quantitative models. SD has two main concepts that are highly suitable to use with scenarios: feedback processes that define the structure of sociotechnical systems and accumulation processes that are responsible for the dynamic behavior of systems over time. This article discusses a framework that integrates methodologically scenarios and SD. The integration can take multiple forms depending on the use of SD for creating or supporting scenarios. The framework is illustrated with multiple examples. Since SDs' practice uses processes similar to scenario practice, mutual enrichment between the communities can be highly successful.

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