{"title":"现实主义者会预测吗?","authors":"Douglas Porpora","doi":"10.1111/jtsb.12404","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>As Petter Naess observes, some specifically prominent voices within CR have expressly denied our ability to predict much in the social domain while others express great caution about endorsing any such ability. In print, Naess has been the most prominent CR voice defending predictability, but there are others of us critical realists who share Naess's view. The purpose of this paper is to further defend the view that critical realists have no special problem with predicting events. We just do not grant prediction the same status that positivists do. The argument here is parallel to Porpora's that critical realists can and do run regressions but without granting them the same explanatory status as positivism.</p>","PeriodicalId":47646,"journal":{"name":"Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour","volume":"54 3","pages":"255-268"},"PeriodicalIF":1.4000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Do Realists Predict?\",\"authors\":\"Douglas Porpora\",\"doi\":\"10.1111/jtsb.12404\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>As Petter Naess observes, some specifically prominent voices within CR have expressly denied our ability to predict much in the social domain while others express great caution about endorsing any such ability. In print, Naess has been the most prominent CR voice defending predictability, but there are others of us critical realists who share Naess's view. The purpose of this paper is to further defend the view that critical realists have no special problem with predicting events. We just do not grant prediction the same status that positivists do. The argument here is parallel to Porpora's that critical realists can and do run regressions but without granting them the same explanatory status as positivism.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47646,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour\",\"volume\":\"54 3\",\"pages\":\"255-268\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"102\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jtsb.12404\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"心理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour","FirstCategoryId":"102","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/jtsb.12404","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"心理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"PSYCHOLOGY, SOCIAL","Score":null,"Total":0}
As Petter Naess observes, some specifically prominent voices within CR have expressly denied our ability to predict much in the social domain while others express great caution about endorsing any such ability. In print, Naess has been the most prominent CR voice defending predictability, but there are others of us critical realists who share Naess's view. The purpose of this paper is to further defend the view that critical realists have no special problem with predicting events. We just do not grant prediction the same status that positivists do. The argument here is parallel to Porpora's that critical realists can and do run regressions but without granting them the same explanatory status as positivism.
期刊介绍:
The Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour publishes original theoretical and methodological articles that examine the links between social structures and human agency embedded in behavioural practices. The Journal is truly unique in focusing first and foremost on social behaviour, over and above any disciplinary or local framing of such behaviour. In so doing, it embraces a range of theoretical orientations and, by requiring authors to write for a wide audience, the Journal is distinctively interdisciplinary and accessible to readers world-wide in the fields of psychology, sociology and philosophy.