{"title":"一厢情愿还是有价值的预测?瑞典政策利率预测的价值","authors":"Hansson Åsa","doi":"10.61927/igmin116","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Economists often provide predictions about future interest or policy rates. In contrast to stock market predictions, these forecasts are typically regarded seriously and presented with a degree of accuracy. This paper explores whether placing more confidence in policy rate predictions than stock market predictions is reasonable. It begins by examining historical policy rates predictions in Sweden, comparing them to actual rates to assess their accuracy. The paper then delves into the discussion of how costs of mispredictions, such as sudden and unexpected policy rate increases, can and should be addressed. Despite the Central Bank making predictions within confidence intervals and the banking sector regulating individuals’ borrowing, the burden of unpredicted rate increases falls almost entirely on individuals. The paper addresses whether that is reasonable.","PeriodicalId":509147,"journal":{"name":"IgMin Research","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-11-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Wishful Thinking or Valuable Forecasts? The Value of Policy Rate Predictions in Sweden\",\"authors\":\"Hansson Åsa\",\"doi\":\"10.61927/igmin116\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Economists often provide predictions about future interest or policy rates. In contrast to stock market predictions, these forecasts are typically regarded seriously and presented with a degree of accuracy. This paper explores whether placing more confidence in policy rate predictions than stock market predictions is reasonable. It begins by examining historical policy rates predictions in Sweden, comparing them to actual rates to assess their accuracy. The paper then delves into the discussion of how costs of mispredictions, such as sudden and unexpected policy rate increases, can and should be addressed. Despite the Central Bank making predictions within confidence intervals and the banking sector regulating individuals’ borrowing, the burden of unpredicted rate increases falls almost entirely on individuals. The paper addresses whether that is reasonable.\",\"PeriodicalId\":509147,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"IgMin Research\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-11-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"IgMin Research\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.61927/igmin116\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"IgMin Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.61927/igmin116","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Wishful Thinking or Valuable Forecasts? The Value of Policy Rate Predictions in Sweden
Economists often provide predictions about future interest or policy rates. In contrast to stock market predictions, these forecasts are typically regarded seriously and presented with a degree of accuracy. This paper explores whether placing more confidence in policy rate predictions than stock market predictions is reasonable. It begins by examining historical policy rates predictions in Sweden, comparing them to actual rates to assess their accuracy. The paper then delves into the discussion of how costs of mispredictions, such as sudden and unexpected policy rate increases, can and should be addressed. Despite the Central Bank making predictions within confidence intervals and the banking sector regulating individuals’ borrowing, the burden of unpredicted rate increases falls almost entirely on individuals. The paper addresses whether that is reasonable.