旅游业效率:Bootstrap 数据包络和 Tobit 面板数据分析

Güven Güney, Özlem Topçuoğlu, Eda Bozkurt
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摘要

旅游业是各国的一个重要部门,不仅对文化活动,而且对经济活动都很重要。旅游业的有效运作有助于国家经济的发展。因此,本研究旨在计算旅游业的效率并找出影响因素。本研究讨论了世界主要旅游目的地中心的 18 个欧洲国家。首先,利用 2002-2019 年期间的数据计算了旅游业效率得分。输入为游客数量和旅游支出,输出为旅游收入。旅游部门的效率是通过标准数据包络分析(DEA)模型计算得出的。由于 DEA 方法可能存在统计局限性,因此使用 Bootstrap-DEA 方法进行了重复分析。得出的效率得分被用作 Tobit 模型中的因变量。在 Tobit 面板数据分析中,包括人均收入、数字化、能源消耗、金融发展、政治稳定和出生时预期寿命在内的变量被作为旅游效率的新趋势来处理。与标准 DEA 的效率分析相比,Boostrap DEA 的结果能得出更准确的结果,它能得出数量更少的国家的效率结果。Tobit 面板数据分析结果显示,人均收入、数字化、政治稳定和出生时预期寿命提高了旅游业效率。与文献不同的是,本研究没有从公司层面,而是从国家层面来考虑旅游业的效率。除了标准的 DEA 分析外,还使用了 Bootstrap DEA 方法,该方法得出了更优越的结果。此外,本研究不仅计算了效率值,还确定了影响旅游业效率的因素。
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Tourism Efficiency: Bootstrap-Data Envelopment and Tobit Panel Data Analysis
Tourism is an important sector for countries, not only for cultural but also for economic activities. The tourism sector, which operates effectively, contributes to the development of the country's economy. Therefore, the study aims at calculating tourism efficiency and identifying factors that influence it. The study discussed 18 European countries that are among the world's major destination centers. Firstly, tourism efficiency scores were calculated with the data covering the period 2002-2019. Inputs are the number of tourists and tourism expenditures, and output is tourism revenues. Tourism sector efficiency was calculated with the standard Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model. Because of the possible statistical limitations of the DEA method, analysis was repeated with the Bootstrap-DEA method. The resulting efficiency scores were used as dependent variables in the Tobit model. The variables including per capita income, digitalization, energy consumption, financial development, political stability, and life expectancy at birth were handled as new trends of tourism efficiency in the Tobit panel data analysis. Boostrap DEA results, which yield more accurate results, gave efficiency results for a smaller number of countries than the efficiency analysis performed with standard DEA. Tobit panel data analysis results showed that income per capita, digitalization, political stability, and life expectancy at birth enhanced tourism efficiency. In the study, unlike the literature, tourism efficiency was not considered at the level of companies, but at the level of countries. In addition to the standard DEA analysis, the Bootstrap DEA method was used, which yielded superior results. Additionally, not only the efficiency values were calculated in the study, but also the factors affecting the tourism efficiency were determined.
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