Marie Damgo, M. Bacus, Jan Danelle Bernido, Sherelyn A. Evangelio, Kim Dianne B. Ligue, Leo Manuel B. Estaña, Von Carlo dela Torre, L. A. Murao, P. Alviola
{"title":"菲律宾南部达沃市新发传染病脆弱性评估:利用全球预测因素制定本地化干预措施","authors":"Marie Damgo, M. Bacus, Jan Danelle Bernido, Sherelyn A. Evangelio, Kim Dianne B. Ligue, Leo Manuel B. Estaña, Von Carlo dela Torre, L. A. Murao, P. Alviola","doi":"10.56899/152.05.04","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) – influenced by socioeconomic, environmental, andecological factors – pose a significant threat to both global economies and public health.Multiple EIDs have emerged in the 21st century, including the current coronavirus disease(COVID-19) pandemic associated with a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus2 (SARS-CoV2). Understanding the factors contributing to the emergence of EIDs is crucialfor mitigating its risks and preventing disease outbreaks that could escalate into epidemics andpandemics. Thus, this study developed a scoring index that could estimate the vulnerability ofan area concerning the emergence of novel EIDs using established global predictors – whichinclude socio-economic and demographic factors (population density, housing, and businesspermits), weather variables (humidity, precipitation, and temperature), animal hosts (livestockand domestic animal populations), and wildlife-livestock-human interfaces (wet markets,urban green spaces, and commercial animal farms). Davao City, located in the Southern partof the Philippines, was used as a study site, wherein its barangays represent the smallest unitof geopolitical communities. Barangays vulnerable to EIDs were determined based on theresulting EID index. Clustering of vulnerability index scores across communities was identifiedusing the Global Moran’s I and Getis-Ord General G statistic. The Getis-Ord Gi* and AnselinLocal Moran’s I were then used to identify the hotspot barangays most vulnerable to EIDs. Themost vulnerable areas to EIDs were barangays with larger urban green spaces and a highernumber of commercial animal farms and wet markets in Davao City. These most vulnerablebarangays were also clustered and located in the districts of Toril, Tugbok, and Calinan. Hence,an appropriate basic action plan for these most vulnerable barangays should be provided.Moreover, policies related to wildlife management and urban planning should be revisited,with emphasis on mitigating the risks (i.e. infectious disease surveillance, zoning, animal biosecurity, and sanitation and hygiene) associated with EIDs while giving equal importancetoward maintaining a stable local economy.","PeriodicalId":39096,"journal":{"name":"Philippine Journal of Science","volume":"48 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2023-07-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Vulnerability Assessment of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Davao City, Southern Philippines: Utilizing Global Predictors to Develop Localized Interventions\",\"authors\":\"Marie Damgo, M. Bacus, Jan Danelle Bernido, Sherelyn A. Evangelio, Kim Dianne B. Ligue, Leo Manuel B. 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引用次数: 0
摘要
新发传染病(EIDs)受社会经济、环境和生态因素的影响,对全球经济和公众健康构成重大威胁。21 世纪出现了多种新发传染病,包括目前与新型严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV2)相关的冠状病毒病(COVID-19)大流行。了解导致 EIDs 出现的因素对于降低其风险和防止疾病爆发(可能升级为流行病和大流行病)至关重要。因此,本研究开发了一种评分指数,利用已确立的全球预测因素来估算一个地区在新型 EIDs 出现方面的脆弱性,这些预测因素包括社会经济和人口因素(人口密度、住房和商业许可)、天气变量(湿度、降水和温度)、动物宿主(牲畜和家畜种群)以及野生动物-牲畜-人类界面(湿市场、城市绿地和商业动物养殖场)。达沃市位于菲律宾南部,是菲律宾最小的地缘政治社区单位。根据得出的 EID 指数确定易受 EID 影响的村落。利用全球莫兰 I 统计法和 Getis-Ord 一般 G 统计法确定了各社区脆弱性指数得分的聚类情况。然后使用 Getis-Ord Gi* 和 AnselinLocal Moran's I 来确定最易受 EID 影响的热点镇。最易受 EIDs 影响的地区是达沃市城市绿地面积较大、商业动物养殖场和湿市场数量较多的乡镇。这些最易受影响的村落也集中在托里尔(Toril)、塔格博克(Tugbok)和卡利南(Calinan)区。因此,应该为这些最脆弱的乡镇提供适当的基本行动计划。此外,还应该重新审视与野生动物管理和城市规划相关的政策,重点是降低与 EIDs 相关的风险(即传染病监测、分区、动物生物安全以及环境卫生和个人卫生),同时同等重视维持稳定的地方经济。
Vulnerability Assessment of Emerging Infectious Diseases in Davao City, Southern Philippines: Utilizing Global Predictors to Develop Localized Interventions
Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) – influenced by socioeconomic, environmental, andecological factors – pose a significant threat to both global economies and public health.Multiple EIDs have emerged in the 21st century, including the current coronavirus disease(COVID-19) pandemic associated with a novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus2 (SARS-CoV2). Understanding the factors contributing to the emergence of EIDs is crucialfor mitigating its risks and preventing disease outbreaks that could escalate into epidemics andpandemics. Thus, this study developed a scoring index that could estimate the vulnerability ofan area concerning the emergence of novel EIDs using established global predictors – whichinclude socio-economic and demographic factors (population density, housing, and businesspermits), weather variables (humidity, precipitation, and temperature), animal hosts (livestockand domestic animal populations), and wildlife-livestock-human interfaces (wet markets,urban green spaces, and commercial animal farms). Davao City, located in the Southern partof the Philippines, was used as a study site, wherein its barangays represent the smallest unitof geopolitical communities. Barangays vulnerable to EIDs were determined based on theresulting EID index. Clustering of vulnerability index scores across communities was identifiedusing the Global Moran’s I and Getis-Ord General G statistic. The Getis-Ord Gi* and AnselinLocal Moran’s I were then used to identify the hotspot barangays most vulnerable to EIDs. Themost vulnerable areas to EIDs were barangays with larger urban green spaces and a highernumber of commercial animal farms and wet markets in Davao City. These most vulnerablebarangays were also clustered and located in the districts of Toril, Tugbok, and Calinan. Hence,an appropriate basic action plan for these most vulnerable barangays should be provided.Moreover, policies related to wildlife management and urban planning should be revisited,with emphasis on mitigating the risks (i.e. infectious disease surveillance, zoning, animal biosecurity, and sanitation and hygiene) associated with EIDs while giving equal importancetoward maintaining a stable local economy.