氯气在运输过程中从气瓶中意外释放和应急计划:基于情景的研究。

Q3 Medicine Journal of Emergency Management Pub Date : 2023-11-01 DOI:10.5055/jem.0780
Mohammad Reza Fallah Ghanbari, Zohre Ghomian
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引用次数: 0

摘要

导言:本文概述了我们对氯气在运输过程中意外泄漏的情景以及制定应急计划以减轻城市地区后续危害的研究:为了开展这项研究,我们采用了事件树分析法(ETA)、一系列头脑风暴会议,并利用时空模型系统分析软件(PHAST)对事故后果进行了建模:根据事件树的结果,确定了 32 条初始发生路径和 20 条最终发生路径。疏散时间约为 41 秒,非常短,估计在距离释放地点 140-192 米半径范围内的伤亡几率为 99%,202-599 米半径范围内的伤亡几率为 50%,758 米半径范围内的伤亡几率为 1%:结论:在使用后果模型的同时,开发 ETA 可以有效地进行应急准备。在氯气释放的情况下,不可能有效控制释放源。此外,结果表明,在德黑兰这样的大城市,氯气的应用和运输可能是一个严峻的挑战。
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Accidental release of chlorine from a cylinder during transport and an emergency response plan: A scenario-based study.

Introduction: This article summarizes our research study on the scenario of an accidental chlorine gas release during transportation and preparing emergency response plan to mitigate the subsequent hazards in urban areas.

Methodology: To conduct the research study, the event tree analysis (ETA), a series of brain storming sessions, and a modeling of consequences of an accident using the Phylogenetic Analysis with Space/Time models (PHAST) software were employed.

Results and discussion: Based on the result of the event tree, 32 initial occurring paths and 20 eventual occurring paths are identified as the outcome. The evacuation time is about 41 seconds, which is very short, and the odds of casualties are estimated at 99 percent within a radius of 140-192 m from the release site, 50 percent within a radius of 202-599 m, and 1 percent within a radius of 758 m.

Conclusion: Along with the use of consequence modeling, the development of the ETA can be effective in emergency preparedness. In the case of a chlorine gas release, it would not be possible to effectively control the source of release. Furthermore, the result indicates that in a major city like Tehran, the application and transport of chlorine gas can be a serious challenge.

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来源期刊
Journal of Emergency Management
Journal of Emergency Management Medicine-Emergency Medicine
CiteScore
1.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
67
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