Growth dynamics of untreated meningiomas.

Background: Knowledge about meningioma growth characteristics is needed for developing biologically rational follow-up routines. In this study of untreated meningiomas followed with repeated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, we studied growth dynamics and explored potential factors associated with tumor growth.

Methods: In a single-center cohort study, we included 235 adult patients with radiologically suspected intracranial meningioma and at least 3 MRI scans during follow-up. Tumors were segmented using an automatic algorithm from contrast-enhanced T1 series, and, if needed, manually corrected. Potential meningioma growth curves were statistically compared: linear, exponential, linear radial, or Gompertzian. Factors associated with growth were explored.

Results: In 235 patients, 1394 MRI scans were carried out in the median 5-year observational period. Of the models tested, a Gompertzian growth curve best described growth dynamics of meningiomas on group level. 59% of the tumors grew, 27% remained stable, and 14% shrunk. Only 13 patients (5%) underwent surgery during the observational period and were excluded after surgery. Tumor size at the time of diagnosis, multifocality, and length of follow-up were associated with tumor growth, whereas age, sex, presence of peritumoral edema, and hyperintense T2-signal were not significant factors.

Conclusions: Untreated meningiomas follow a Gompertzian growth curve, indicating that increasing and potentially doubling subsequent follow-up intervals between MRIs seems biologically reasonable, instead of fixed time intervals. Tumor size at diagnosis is the strongest predictor of future growth, indicating a potential for longer follow-up intervals for smaller tumors. Although most untreated meningiomas grow, few require surgery.