通过优化控制研究媒体宣传计划对 COVID-19 传播影响的数学模型

Naba Kumar Goswami , Samson Olaniyi , Sulaimon F. Abimbade , Furaha M. Chuma
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引用次数: 0

摘要

冠状病毒大流行是一场全球性的健康危机,造成了前所未有的社会经济灾难。这次大流行是第二次世界大战以来世界面临的最大挑战,也是人类历史上的主要转折点。媒体报道可以改变公民对新发传染病的关注,进而改变个人行为和态度。本研究提出并分析了一个七室数学模型,以研究媒体报道对 COVID-19 传播和控制的影响。通过下一代方法实现了感染初始传播的阈值条件 Ro。从局部和全局的基本繁殖数出发,研究了所提出模型在无疾病和流行均衡状态下的稳定性分析。对繁殖数的敏感性分析可视化,以区分可用于控制冠状病毒疾病传播动态的最敏感参数。此外,还利用数值模拟对确定性模型的理论结果进行了比较。分析结果表明,通过适当的检疫/医疗管理可以终止疾病的流行。我们进一步将模型扩展到最优控制框架。我们利用庞特里亚金最大原则对模型进行了分析,以确定管理 COVID-19 传播的预防控制、检测设施和治疗措施。
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A mathematical model for investigating the effect of media awareness programs on the spread of COVID-19 with optimal control

The coronavirus pandemic is a global health crisis creating an unprecedented socio-economic catastrophe. This pandemic is the biggest challenge the world has faced since World War II and is the main turning point in the history of humanity. Media coverage can change citizens’ attention to emerging infectious diseases and consequently change individual behaviors and attitudes. This study proposes and analyzes a seven-compartmental mathematical model to investigate the impact of media coverage on the spread and control of COVID-19. The threshold condition Ro for the initial transmission of infection is achieved by the next-generation approach. Stability analysis of the proposed model on disease-free and endemic equilibria is investigated in terms of basic reproduction numbers locally and globally. The sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number is visualized to distinguish the most sensitive parameters that can be regulated to control the transmission dynamics of coronavirus disease. Moreover, the theoretical results of the deterministic model are compared using numerical simulations. The outcomes of the analysis suggest that the disease prevalence can be terminated by suitable management of quarantine/medical care. We further extend the model to the optimal control framework. It is analyzed using Pontryagin’s maximum principle to characterize preventive control, testing facility, and treatment measures for managing COVID-19 transmission.

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来源期刊
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Simulation, Nursing and Health Professions (General)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
79 days
期刊最新文献
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