The role of visions in sustainability transformations: Exploring tensions between the Agrarwende vanguard vision and an established sociotechnical imaginary of agriculture in Germany

Although much research recognises the importance of visions as key ingredients of transformations to sustainability, it remains unclear how and why some visions become collectively binding. This paper uses the lens of sociotechnical imaginaries, i.e., collectively shared, institutionally stabilised, and publicly performed visions of desirable futures, to analyse the so-called Agrarwende (agricultural transformation), a sustainability-oriented reform of German agriculture based on a vision of transformative change towards organic farming. Methodologically, the investigation draws on published historical and contemporary data sources for an in-depth case study of the Agrarwende using content analysis. It shows how a particular sociotechnical imaginary has shaped German agriculture for many decades and explores how three of its constitutive elements - its policy style, expertise, and risk framing – conflict with the vanguard vision of the Agrarwende. The findings suggest that these elements have reinforced one another in shaping the trajectory of the agricultural system, thus co-producing a strong socio-political order in favour of industrial agriculture at the expense of an alternative set of policies, expertise, and risk framing that supports organic agriculture. Taken together, the findings highlight how knowledge and politics shape debates and controversies about what is deemed a desirable future, what is at stake, and for whom.