Agriculture and AfCFTA: NTM reductions increase intra-Africa trade

The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is expected to provide trade gains for Africa, especially from reducing non-tariff measures (NTM). Unfortunately, data on NTMs is scarce, both by country and sector. Using three underlying NTM data sets and other data sources, we provide a range of estimates to fill the missing gaps in the existing estimates. Focusing on agriculture, we then use a computable general equilibrium model to estimate the effects of the AfCFTA. Results from all three data sets indicate that NTM reduction leads to much greater intra-Africa trade gains than tariff reduction alone.