COVID-19大流行即将结束时的生育率下降:德国和瑞典 2022 年出生率下降的证据。

Martin Bujard, Gunnar Andersson
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引用次数: 0

摘要

COVID-19 大流行爆发后,许多国家在 2020-2021 年面临生育率短期下降的问题,但大多数德语国家和北欧国家并未出现这种情况。然而,最近的出生统计数据显示,2022 年的生育率急剧下降。我们旨在为德国和瑞典 2022 年出生率意外下降提供经验证据。我们依据月度出生统计数据,提出了德国和瑞典经季节调整的月度总和生育率(TFR)。我们将滞后 9 个月的生育率与 COVID-19 的背景发展联系起来。德国经季节调整的月总和生育率从 2021 年的 1.5-1.6 降至 2022 年初的 1.4,并在 2022 年秋季再次下降,几个月内下降了约 10%。在瑞典,相应的总生育率从 2021 年的约 1.7 降至 2022 年的 1.5-1.6,降幅接近 10%。生育率趋势与失业率、感染率或 COVID-19 死亡人数的变化没有关联,但与疫苗接种计划的启动和与大流行相关的限制措施的减弱密切相关。德国和瑞典 2022 年的生育率下降非常明显。大流行期间生育率变化的常见解释并不适用。大规模疫苗接种的开始与随后生育率下降之间的联系表明,妇女调整了行为,在怀孕前接种疫苗。随着社会开放,生活条件更加正常化,生育率也随之下降。我们提供了有关大流行期间和之后生育率下降以及 COVID-19 与生育率关系的新信息。
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Fertility Declines Near the End of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence of the 2022 Birth Declines in Germany and Sweden.

Following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries faced short-term fertility declines in 2020-2021, a development which did not materialize in the majority of German-speaking and Nordic countries. However, more recent birth statistics show a steep fertility decline in 2022. We aim to provide empirical evidence on the unexpected birth decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden. We rely on monthly birth statistics and present seasonally adjusted monthly Total Fertility Rates (TFR) for Germany and Sweden. We relate the nine-month lagged fertility rates to contextual developments regarding COVID-19. The seasonally adjusted monthly TFR of Germany dropped from 1.5-1.6 in 2021 to 1.4 in early 2022 and again in autumn 2022, a decline of about 10% in several months. In Sweden, the corresponding TFR dropped from about 1.7 in 2021 to 1.5-1.6 in 2022, a decline of almost 10%. There is no association of the fertility trends with changes in unemployment, infection rates, or COVID-19 deaths, but a strong association with the onset of vaccination programmes and the weakening of pandemic-related restrictions. The fertility decline in 2022 in Germany and Sweden is remarkable. Common explanations of fertility change during the pandemic do not apply. The association between the onset of mass vaccinations and subsequent fertility decline indicates that women adjusted their behaviour to get vaccinated before becoming pregnant. Fertility decreased as societies were opening up with more normalized life conditions. We provide novel information on fertility declines and the COVID-19-fertility nexus during and in the immediate aftermath of the pandemic.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
8.00%
发文量
44
期刊介绍: European Journal of Population addresses a broad public of researchers, policy makers and others concerned with population processes and their consequences. Its aim is to improve understanding of population phenomena by giving priority to work that contributes to the development of theory and method, and that spans the boundaries between demography and such disciplines as sociology, anthropology, economics, geography, history, political science, epidemiology and other sciences contributing to public health. The Journal is open to authors from all over the world, and its articles cover European and non-European countries (specifically including developing countries) alike.
期刊最新文献
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