{"title":"货币与财政的相互作用:是否双管齐下?","authors":"António Afonso , Alexandre Sousa","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101188","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>We study whether the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies work both ways, in EU countries, for the period 1995–2019. Our results show notably that: i) the inflation rate has a relevant impact over the central banks’ decision making; ii) the cyclically adjusted primary balance reacts positively to increases in the level of government debt; iii) monetary policy reaction functions do not seem to take into consideration the cyclically adjusted primary balance; iv) fiscal policy, via the cyclically adjusted primary balance, seem to be affected by the short-term interest rate in a negative way. The global economic and financial crisis impacted negatively both the short-term nominal interest rates and the cyclically adjusted primary balance, however with a higher degree in the euro area.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 2","pages":"Article 101188"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8000,"publicationDate":"2024-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362524000104/pdfft?md5=281f0dca0948c6e6489218e7e49f1a4f&pid=1-s2.0-S0939362524000104-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Monetary and fiscal interplay: Does it work both ways?\",\"authors\":\"António Afonso , Alexandre Sousa\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101188\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>We study whether the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies work both ways, in EU countries, for the period 1995–2019. Our results show notably that: i) the inflation rate has a relevant impact over the central banks’ decision making; ii) the cyclically adjusted primary balance reacts positively to increases in the level of government debt; iii) monetary policy reaction functions do not seem to take into consideration the cyclically adjusted primary balance; iv) fiscal policy, via the cyclically adjusted primary balance, seem to be affected by the short-term interest rate in a negative way. The global economic and financial crisis impacted negatively both the short-term nominal interest rates and the cyclically adjusted primary balance, however with a higher degree in the euro area.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51505,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Economic Systems\",\"volume\":\"48 2\",\"pages\":\"Article 101188\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-06-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362524000104/pdfft?md5=281f0dca0948c6e6489218e7e49f1a4f&pid=1-s2.0-S0939362524000104-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Economic Systems\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362524000104\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Economic Systems","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0939362524000104","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Monetary and fiscal interplay: Does it work both ways?
We study whether the interplay between monetary and fiscal policies work both ways, in EU countries, for the period 1995–2019. Our results show notably that: i) the inflation rate has a relevant impact over the central banks’ decision making; ii) the cyclically adjusted primary balance reacts positively to increases in the level of government debt; iii) monetary policy reaction functions do not seem to take into consideration the cyclically adjusted primary balance; iv) fiscal policy, via the cyclically adjusted primary balance, seem to be affected by the short-term interest rate in a negative way. The global economic and financial crisis impacted negatively both the short-term nominal interest rates and the cyclically adjusted primary balance, however with a higher degree in the euro area.
期刊介绍:
Economic Systems is a refereed journal for the analysis of causes and consequences of the significant institutional variety prevailing among developed, developing, and emerging economies, as well as attempts at and proposals for their reform. The journal is open to micro and macro contributions, theoretical as well as empirical, the latter to analyze related topics against the background of country or region-specific experiences. In this respect, Economic Systems retains its long standing interest in the emerging economies of Central and Eastern Europe and other former transition economies, but also encourages contributions that cover any part of the world, including Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, or Africa.