Economic Systems最新文献

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European banks and Fed liquidity facilities during the Global Financial Crisis: Good news for the bad and bad news for the good 全球金融危机期间的欧洲银行和美联储流动性工具：坏消息是好消息，坏消息是好消息

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101313

Hervé Alexandre , Catherine Refait-Alexandre , Larry D. Wall

During the 2007–2010 period the Fed operated various liquidity facilities that were intended to alleviate financial system stress but which could have been interpreted as an adverse signal on banking risk. To disentangle these two effects, we analyze the response of the credit default swap (CDS) market to the announcement and usage of these facilities by European banks, since the CDS spread can be considered as a proxy for market perceptions of bank risk. We find that Fed financial assistance tended to reduce market concern about bank risk at the beginning of the crisis and after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, showing its willingness to support the banks. However, between March and September 2008, while there was still some uncertainty about the severity of the crisis, the Fed’s programs seem to have worried market participants about banking risk. We also find that the announcement of the Fed’s programs was better received on the CDS market for banks that benefited from public assistance (as a bail-out) than for the other banks, thus seeming to effect a greater reduction of perceived risk for publicly assisted banks.

在2007-2010年期间，美联储操作了各种流动性工具，旨在缓解金融体系的压力，但这可能被解读为银行风险的不利信号。为了区分这两种影响，我们分析了信用违约掉期（CDS）市场对欧洲银行宣布和使用这些工具的反应，因为CDS价差可以被认为是市场对银行风险认知的代理。我们发现，在危机初期和雷曼兄弟（Lehman Brothers）破产后，美联储的金融援助倾向于降低市场对银行风险的担忧，表明其支持银行的意愿。然而，在2008年3月至9月期间，虽然对危机的严重程度仍存在一些不确定性，但美联储的计划似乎已让市场参与者对银行业风险感到担忧。我们还发现，在CDS市场上，受益于公共援助（作为纾困）的银行比其他银行更能接受美联储计划的宣布，因此似乎对公共援助银行的感知风险有更大的降低作用。

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引用次数: 0

Inflation, financial development, and income/wealth inequality in the European Union 欧盟的通货膨胀、金融发展和收入/财富不平等

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101316

Mihaela Simionescu

In the post-pandemic period, the debates about high inflation and widening income inequality have intensified. This study examines the 27 countries in the European Union over the period 1990–2023 using panel data models (mean group estimators and system generalized method of moments estimators). Inflation increased income inequality, but decreased wealth inequality. Domestic credit to the private sector and government expenditure exacerbated income and wealth inequality, whereas trade reduced income inequality, proxied by the Gini index. The interplay between credit and inflation reduced income and wealth equality, measured by top 10 percent share, the bottom 50 percent share, and the top 1 percent share. The interaction between inflation and other financial development indicators related to institutions and markets reduced inequality. Control of corruption reduced wealth inequality. We also explore the potential impact of domestic credit to the private sector on income and wealth inequality by constructing a causal model that examines the role of self-employment as a mediating factor. Inequality decreased self-employment, whereas domestic credit to the private sector encouraged it. These empirical findings offer insights into how to reshape policies to manage both inflation and high income/wealth inequality.

在大流行后时期，关于高通胀和收入不平等扩大的辩论愈演愈烈。本研究使用面板数据模型（平均组估计器和系统广义矩估计器方法）对欧盟27个国家1990-2023年进行了研究。通货膨胀加剧了收入不平等，但减少了财富不平等。私人部门的国内信贷和政府支出加剧了收入和财富不平等，而贸易则减少了收入不平等（由基尼系数（Gini index）反映）。信贷和通货膨胀之间的相互作用降低了收入和财富的平等，以收入最高的10%的份额、收入最低的50%的份额和收入最高的1%的份额来衡量。通货膨胀与与机构和市场有关的其他金融发展指标之间的相互作用减少了不平等。对腐败的控制减少了财富不平等。我们还通过构建一个因果模型来探讨私营部门国内信贷对收入和财富不平等的潜在影响，该模型检验了自营职业作为中介因素的作用。不平等减少了自营职业，而对私营部门的国内信贷则鼓励了自营职业。这些实证研究结果为如何重塑政策以管理通胀和高收入/财富不平等提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

Rationale for paternalism: “Semi-feudalistic” tenancy contracts in imperial Japan 家长制的基本原理：日本帝国的“半封建”租赁合同

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101336

Masaki Nakabayashi

Risk sharing in the informal/traditional sector, such as that through tenancy contracts, plays a critical role in the early development stages, but it becomes destabilized at some point in history. We build a two-sector contract model in which landlords reduce the weather risk incurred by tenant farmers by mobilizing tenant farmers’ unpaid work for the improvement and maintenance of infrastructure at the expense of tenant farmers’ farming efforts. We first confirm that social welfare decreases with the risk faced by society. However, we next find that the landlord’s surplus increases with risk under a certain risk threshold, but the relationship reverses beyond the threshold. Thus, informal security is not feasible against a catastrophic shock, and the state must insure society against such risk. The quasi-concave characteristics of the optimal contract help explain the rise and fall of Japanese landlordism from the late nineteenth century to the early twentieth century and provide implications for current developing economies.

非正式/传统部门的风险分担，例如通过租赁合同分担风险，在早期发展阶段发挥了关键作用，但在历史上的某个时刻变得不稳定。我们建立了一个双部门合同模型，在该模型中，房东通过动员佃农无偿工作来改善和维护基础设施，以牺牲佃农的耕作努力为代价，减少了佃农遭受的天气风险。我们首先证实，社会福利随着社会面临的风险而减少。然而，我们接下来发现，在一定的风险阈值下，房东的盈余随着风险的增加而增加，但超过阈值后，这种关系就反转了。因此，非正式的安全措施在应对灾难性冲击时是不可行的，国家必须为社会提供防范此类风险的保险。最优契约的准凹特征有助于解释日本地主制度从19世纪末到20世纪初的兴衰，并为当前的发展中经济体提供启示。

引用次数: 0

Growth dilemmata: The case of African firms 增长困境：非洲公司的案例

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101329

Abdoulganiour Almame Tinta

In this study, we exploit panel data of 2450 manufacturing firms from a sample of 30 African countries from 2013 to 2023 to examine the link between firm performance and innovation. Focusing on innovation and firm growth, this study addresses R&D activities, product innovation, process innovation, and organizational practices. Applying various methods, the findings show that firms that succeed in process innovation or R&D activities achieve much higher performance. This performance is stronger for high-growth firms. Moreover, firms implementing new management practices tend to increase sales but not employment, with higher returns at the 50th percentile. Organizational innovation is better for firms that are about to face high demand. The introduction of new products is not necessarily accompanied by increased sales except for the lower quantiles. New products are especially risky and do not result in employment growth. The existence of competitive pressure and the payment of bribes by firms to public officials speed up sales.

在本研究中，我们利用2013年至2023年来自30个非洲国家样本的2450家制造业企业的面板数据来检验企业绩效与创新之间的联系。本研究聚焦于创新与企业成长，探讨研发活动、产品创新、流程创新与组织实务。运用各种方法，研究结果表明，在流程创新或研发活动中取得成功的公司取得了更高的绩效。高增长公司的表现更为强劲。此外，实施新的管理实践的公司往往会增加销售额，但不会增加就业，在第50个百分位数的回报率更高。组织创新对即将面临高需求的企业更有利。除了较低的分位数外，新产品的推出不一定伴随着销售额的增加。新产品风险特别大，不会带来就业增长。竞争压力的存在和公司对政府官员的贿赂加速了销售。

引用次数: 0

Corporate survival in emerging european markets: Impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war 新兴欧洲市场的企业生存：COVID-19大流行和俄乌战争的影响

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101332

Evžen Kočenda , Ichiro Iwasaki

We investigate the determinants of firm survival in 17 emerging European markets during the dual crises of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russo-Ukrainian war. Using a large dataset of over 59,000 firms and employing a Cox proportional hazards model, the study evaluates how firm-specific characteristics, regional socio-economic conditions, and institutional quality shaped survival outcomes between 2020 and 2023. The analysis reveals that firm exit was more prevalent in EU member states, likely due to stricter crisis-related restrictions. Socio-economic variables such as population density, tourism dependence, and health expenditures played a critical role, while institutional quality, contrary to expectations, was associated with higher exit rates during crises. The banking sector played a role in influencing firm resilience through credit provision and financial support mechanisms. The Russo-Ukrainian war further amplified survival risks, especially for firms located in countries geographically or economically exposed to the conflict. The findings offer valuable insights for designing targeted policy interventions aimed at enhancing business resilience in vulnerable and institutionally diverse environments.

我们调查了17个新兴欧洲市场在COVID-19大流行和俄罗斯-乌克兰战争双重危机期间企业生存的决定因素。该研究使用了超过59,000家公司的大型数据集，并采用Cox比例风险模型，评估了2020年至2023年期间公司特定特征、区域社会经济条件和制度质量如何影响生存结果。分析显示，企业退出在欧盟成员国更为普遍，这可能是由于更严格的危机相关限制。人口密度、对旅游业的依赖和卫生支出等社会经济变量发挥了关键作用，而与预期相反，机构质量与危机期间较高的退出率有关。银行部门通过信贷提供和金融支持机制，在影响企业抵御能力方面发挥了作用。俄乌战争进一步放大了生存风险，尤其是那些在地理上或经济上受冲突影响的国家的公司。研究结果为设计有针对性的政策干预措施提供了有价值的见解，这些干预措施旨在增强企业在脆弱和制度多样化环境中的弹性。

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引用次数: 0

Political polarization, state capacity, and economic growth 政治两极分化、国家能力和经济增长

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101333

Youngho Kang , Byung-Yeon Kim , Dongwon Lee

Political polarization is becoming an increasingly prominent feature of contemporary politics, but its implications for economic growth is less understood. The related literature remains largely theoretical, and few studies investigate the channels through which polarization influences growth. This study addresses this gap by examining if and how political polarization affects economic growth across a panel of 75 countries from 1990 to 2019. We find that political polarization, measured by the dispersion of self-reported political ideologies, negatively impacts economic growth. Moreover, we find that this effect occurs primarily through reduced private investment, human capital investment, and total factor productivity. We also find that strong state capacity, defined as the government’s ability to effectively implement policies, can mitigate the adverse effects of polarization on growth.

政治两极分化正成为当代政治日益突出的特征，但其对经济增长的影响却鲜为人知。相关文献大多停留在理论层面，很少有研究探讨极化影响生长的渠道。本研究通过研究政治两极分化是否以及如何影响1990年至2019年75个国家的经济增长来解决这一差距。我们发现，通过自我报告的政治意识形态的分散来衡量的政治两极分化对经济增长产生了负面影响。此外，我们发现这种影响主要是通过减少私人投资、人力资本投资和全要素生产率来实现的。我们还发现，强大的国家能力，即政府有效执行政策的能力，可以缓解两极分化对经济增长的不利影响。

引用次数: 0

Harmonizing public debt and creating convergence clubs in sub-Saharan Africa 在撒哈拉以南非洲协调公共债务和创建融合俱乐部

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101315

Jean-Claude Kouakou Brou , Jamal Bouoiyour , Olivier Hueber

This article explores how public debt convergence clubs can enhance debt management and improve economic stability in African countries. Instead of focusing solely on geographical criteria, these clubs prioritize public debt rules and debt limitation, offering a promising strategy to tackle the challenges associated with debt sustainability in the region. The article explores the potential benefits, obstacles, and policy implications of such convergence clubs, stressing the importance of forming robust and stable groupings. Through a thorough examination of the relevant literature and empirical evidence, this study provides valuable insights into designing and implementing effective public debt convergence mechanisms for African nations. While no evidence of global convergence around debt was found, the existence of convergence clubs suggests a promising route for countries that share similar debt profiles rather than geographical, political, or ideological similarities. The research also highlights that stability and growth pacts have not resulted in global convergence but rather in the formation of convergence clubs.

本文探讨了公共债务趋同俱乐部如何加强非洲国家的债务管理和改善经济稳定。这些俱乐部不是仅仅关注地理标准，而是优先考虑公共债务规则和债务限制，为解决该地区债务可持续性相关的挑战提供了一个有希望的战略。本文探讨了这种趋同俱乐部的潜在好处、障碍和政策含义，强调了形成强大而稳定的团体的重要性。通过对相关文献和经验证据的深入研究，本研究为非洲国家设计和实施有效的公共债务趋同机制提供了有价值的见解。虽然没有发现全球债务趋同的证据，但趋同俱乐部的存在为债务状况相似而不是地理、政治或意识形态相似的国家提供了一条有希望的途径。该研究还强调，稳定和增长协定并没有导致全球趋同，而是形成了趋同俱乐部。

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引用次数: 0

Government spending cyclicality, economic stability and uncertainty 政府支出的周期性、经济的稳定性和不确定性

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101314

Christos Chrysanthakopoulos , Panagiotis Konstantinou , Athanasios Tagkalakis

Using a dataset of 162 countries over the period 2000–2022, we obtain estimates of the cyclicality of government spending. Based on these, we examine the effect of government spending cyclicality on output growth volatility, economic uncertainty, and the cyclical component of real GDP. We find that real spending is counter-cyclical, primarily in advanced economies, while it is a-cyclical in emerging market economies and procyclical in developing economies. Furthermore, our results, which account for potential endogeneity and reverse causality, indicate that increased public spending cyclicality raises the volatility of output growth and increases economic uncertainty. Consequently, an increase in public spending cyclicality has a negative effect on the cyclical component of real GDP over the medium term.

利用2000年至2022年期间162个国家的数据集，我们获得了政府支出周期性的估计。在此基础上，我们考察了政府支出周期性对产出增长波动性、经济不确定性和实际GDP周期性成分的影响。我们发现，实际支出是逆周期的，主要在发达经济体，而在新兴市场经济体是逆周期的，在发展中经济体是顺周期的。此外，考虑到潜在的内生性和反向因果关系，我们的结果表明，公共支出周期性的增加增加了产出增长的波动性，增加了经济的不确定性。因此，公共支出周期性的增加在中期对实际GDP的周期性成分产生负面影响。

引用次数: 0

Migration, remittances, and wage-inflation spillovers: The case of Albania 移民、汇款和工资通胀溢出效应：以阿尔巴尼亚为例

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101323

Lorena Skufi , Meri Papavangjeli , Adam Geršl

Motivated by migration phenomena and wage-inflation spillovers, we investigate the relationship between the two and the built-in inflationary pressures of remittances. We establish a feedback loop between migration and inflation, and specify a simple dynamic model to identify the pass-through. We find that a permanent decline in the population of 1% leads to 0.8 percentage points of inflationary pressures in the midterm. Remittances induce excessive pressures. Supportive schemes such as an older retirement age and a higher labor force participation rate can partially mitigate inflationary pressures.

在移民现象和工资通胀溢出效应的驱动下，我们研究了两者之间的关系以及汇款的内在通胀压力。我们在迁移和通货膨胀之间建立了一个反馈回路，并指定了一个简单的动态模型来识别传递。我们发现，人口每永久性下降1%，中期通胀压力就会上升0.8个百分点。汇款会带来过度的压力。提高退休年龄和提高劳动力参与率等支持性计划可以部分缓解通胀压力。

引用次数: 0

Are unemployment differentials among advanced economies still explained by the Shocking Institutions Hypothesis? 发达经济体之间的失业差异还能用“令人震惊的制度假说”来解释吗？

IF 3.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2025.101325

Nauro F. Campos , Vera Z. Eichenauer , Jan-Egbert Sturm

The average unemployment rate in Europe has been consistently higher than in the United States since 1980. The main explanation offered by a large economics literature is based on the interaction between shocks and institutions (the Shocking Institutions Hypothesis). The contribution of this paper is twofold: to assess whether this prevailing explanation holds once we take into account recent shocks (globalisation, China, etc.) and time-varying labour market institutions; and to offer a decomposition (using the Shapley-Owen approach) of the relative contributions of shocks, institutions and their interactions. While our results confirm the general validity of the Shocking Institutions Hypothesis, we argue that it is more complex and nuanced than originally formulated.

自1980年以来，欧洲的平均失业率一直高于美国。大量经济学文献提供的主要解释是基于冲击和制度之间的相互作用（令人震惊的制度假说）。本文的贡献是双重的：一旦我们考虑到最近的冲击（全球化、中国等）和时变的劳动力市场制度，评估这种普遍的解释是否成立；并对冲击、制度及其相互作用的相对贡献进行分解（使用Shapley-Owen方法）。虽然我们的研究结果证实了“令人震惊的制度假说”的总体有效性，但我们认为，它比最初制定的更为复杂和微妙。

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