Economic Systems最新文献

Comovement and Global Imbalances of Current Accounts 经常账户的联动与全球失衡

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101199

Yu You , Junsoo Lee , Yoonbai Kim , Zheng Yang

In contrast to existing studies that have paid limited attention to comovement in the current account balances of inter-related countries, we employ a dynamic factor model to evaluate the contributions of the common global factor, group factors (advanced or emerging countries), and country-specific factors for 12 advanced and eight emerging economies from 1970 to 2017. We find that current account balances are largely driven by the group factor for advanced economies; however, current account balances in most emerging economies are primarily driven by country-specific factors. We then investigate the roles of these factors using the traditional empirical model for current account determination. Global and group factors are essential for addressing current accounts’ cross-sectional dependence in panel data models. We find that the empirical results introducing these factors are stronger, and the coefficients of relevant variables become more significant. Furthermore, we examine how these factors are related to the structural determinants of current account balances, revealing that more capital mobility and trade openness tend to increase the share of the group factor, while increases in country-specific determinants lead to a greater share in the country factor.

现有研究对相互关联国家经常账户余额的相关性关注有限，与此不同的是，我们采用了动态因素模型来评估 1970 年至 2017 年期间 12 个发达经济体和 8 个新兴经济体的全球共同因素、集团因素（发达或新兴国家）和国家特定因素的贡献。我们发现，发达经济体的经常账户余额主要由集团因素驱动；然而，大多数新兴经济体的经常账户余额主要由具体国家因素驱动。然后，我们利用经常账户决定的传统经验模型研究了这些因素的作用。全球因素和集团因素对于解决面板数据模型中经常账户的横截面依赖性问题至关重要。我们发现，引入这些因素的实证结果更加有力，相关变量的系数也更加显著。此外，我们还研究了这些因素与经常账户余额的结构性决定因素之间的关系，发现资本流动性和贸易开放度的提高往往会增加集团因素的比重，而国别决定因素的增加则会导致国别因素比重的提高。

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引用次数: 0

What makes environment-related technologies less effective? The role of uncertainty 是什么导致与环境有关的技术效果不佳？不确定性的作用

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101222

Hung Manh Pham , Lan Khanh Chu , Dung Phuong Hoang

This study examines the effect of environment-related technologies on environmental quality, conditional on the level of uncertainty. We apply two panel quantile regression approaches to panel data on the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) over the period 1990–2015. The empirical results suggest that environment-related technologies and uncertainty both significantly help improve the environmental conditions, although the magnitude of these impacts vary across the level of environmental footprint. Notably, higher uncertainty could negate the beneficial effects of green patents on the environmental footprint, especially in a highly degraded environment. Several preliminary tests, such as cross-sectional dependence, stationarity, cointegration, and nonnormality, provide support for the adoption of panel quantile regression. The significant and heterogeneous relationships between the environmental footprint and its determining factors are also established. This research offers a scientific explanation for the ineffective adoption of environment-related technologies for improving environmental quality in many OECD countries for years and hence has valuable implications for policy makers about leveraging the beneficial impacts of environment-related technologies on the ecosystem.

本研究考察环境相关技术对环境质量的影响，以不确定性水平为条件。我们对1990年至2015年期间经济合作与发展组织（OECD）成员国的面板数据采用了两种面板分位数回归方法。实证结果表明，环境相关技术和不确定性都显著有助于改善环境状况，尽管这些影响的程度在不同的环境足迹水平上有所不同。值得注意的是，较高的不确定性可能会抵消绿色专利对环境足迹的有益影响，特别是在高度退化的环境中。一些初步检验，如横断面相关性、平稳性、协整性和非正态性，为采用面板分位数回归提供了支持。环境足迹与其影响因素之间存在显著的异质性关系。本研究为许多经合组织国家多年来未能有效采用环境相关技术来改善环境质量提供了科学解释，因此对政策制定者利用环境相关技术对生态系统的有益影响具有重要意义。

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引用次数: 0

Coherence of the business cycles of prospective members of the euro area and the euro area business cycle 欧元区未来成员的商业周期与欧元区商业周期的一致性

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101221

Jakob de Haan , Jan P.A.M. Jacobs , Renske Zijm

Is it beneficial for Central and Eastern European EU Member States to join the euro area? To answer that question, the coherence of the business cycles of six EU Member States and the euro area is analyzed. These countries recently joined (Croatia) or are supposed to join the euro area in the (near) future. The analysis utilizes the synchronicity and similarity measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012). Whereas the synchronicity measure captures whether output gaps have the same sign, the similarity measure identifies differences in cycle amplitudes. It is observed that the business cycles of several countries, notably Romania and Hungary, are out of sync with that of the euro area. The output gap similarity and synchronicity measures for Croatia are also fairly low. However, this also holds for some countries in the euro area.

中欧和东欧欧盟成员国加入欧元区是否有利？为了回答这个问题，本文分析了六个欧盟成员国和欧元区商业周期的一致性。这些国家最近加入了（克罗地亚）或将在（不久的）将来加入欧元区。分析采用Mink et al.（2012）提出的同步性和相似性度量。同步性度量捕获输出间隙是否具有相同的符号，而相似性度量识别周期幅度的差异。人们注意到，几个国家的商业周期，尤其是罗马尼亚和匈牙利，与欧元区的商业周期不同步。克罗地亚的产出缺口相似度和同步性指标也相当低。然而，这也适用于欧元区的一些国家。

引用次数: 0

Green central banking and game theory: The Chicken Game-approach 绿色中央银行与博弈论：小鸡博弈法

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101251

Fabian Alex

This paper investigates the determinants of the probability that a central bank chooses to make its financial sector green. We derive a mixed-strategy Nash equilibrium from a strategic setting of two monetary authorities choosing simultaneously between the alternatives of greening and conducting business as usual. Using a very general setup, we obtain a model that nests most of the usual 2 × 2-situations in game theory. “Green” avoids a country’s contribution to an externality experienced by both, but also encompasses a sacrifice of slowing down economic performance. The probability of greening is found to decrease whenever “greening” means a larger sacrifice for the other country, while it increases with the size of both countries, the rate of internalization applied to the externality as well as the severity of this externality. Unlike the typical (pure) free-riding approach to international coordination on environmental issues, we find some willingness of countries to sacrifice wealth for the sake of avoiding a worst case. In a repeated setting, cooperative solutions can be established. The influence of discounting on the stability of these solutions is ambiguous.

本文研究了中央银行选择使其金融部门绿色化的概率决定因素。我们从两个货币当局同时在 "绿化 "和 "照常营业 "之间做出选择的策略设置中推导出一个混合策略纳什均衡。通过一个非常一般的设置，我们得到了一个模型，该模型嵌套了博弈论中大多数常见的 2 × 2 情境。"绿化 "避免了一个国家对双方都经历的外部性的贡献，但也包含了减缓经济表现的牺牲。当 "绿化 "意味着另一国做出更大的牺牲时，绿化的概率就会降低，而当两国的规模、外部性的内部化率以及外部性的严重程度越高时，绿化的概率就会越高。与典型的（纯粹的）搭便车式环境问题国际协调方法不同，我们发现一些国家愿意为避免最坏情况而牺牲财富。在重复的情况下，可以建立合作解决方案。贴现对这些解决方案稳定性的影响并不明确。

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引用次数: 0

A maximum entropy bootstrap approach to financial development and economic growth in China 中国金融发展与经济增长的最大熵自举方法

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101219

Renfang Tian , Jingjing Xu , Hui Feng , Adian McFarlane

Motivated by China’s rising global economic prominence, which impacts many regional and global development issues, and the unsettled relationship between financial development and economic growth, this study uses data from 1980 to 2019 to re-examine the nexus between economic growth and financial development in this country. This study distinguishes itself from existing literature by using the maximum entropy bootstrap inference method, examining multiple dimensions of financial development and economic growth, and accounting for structural breaks. The first finding reveals a unidirectional Granger-causal relationship from aggregate economic growth to financial development. This causality is observed to mainly go towards the depth and access of financial markets and the depth of financial institutions. The second indicates that bidirectional Granger-causal relationships exist between financial development with exports and imports. The third reveals that structural breaks exhibit varying levels of statistical significance in the relationship between financial development and economic growth. These findings suggest that policymakers need to further deepen and broaden capital markets to strengthen financial development and economic growth linkages.

中国在全球经济地位的上升影响了许多区域和全球发展问题，以及金融发展与经济增长之间未解决的关系，本研究使用1980年至2019年的数据来重新审视中国经济增长与金融发展之间的关系。与现有文献不同的是，本研究采用最大熵自举推理方法，考察了金融发展和经济增长的多个维度，并考虑了结构性断裂。第一个发现揭示了经济总量增长与金融发展之间的单向格兰杰因果关系。这种因果关系主要指向金融市场的深度和准入以及金融机构的深度。第二，金融发展与出口和进口之间存在双向格兰杰因果关系。第三，结构性断裂在金融发展与经济增长的关系中表现出不同程度的统计显著性。这些发现表明，决策者需要进一步深化和扩大资本市场，以加强金融发展和经济增长的联系。

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引用次数: 0

China's risk contagion using the mixed-frequency macro-financial network 用混频宏观金融网络分析中国风险传染

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101212

Cuixia Jiang , Haijing Gao , Qifa Xu

We explore and compare the fundamental laws of risk contagion under different shocks during the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic periods. Using the daily returns of financial market indices and the monthly growth rates of macroeconomic data for two periods, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2010, and from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2021, we construct a macro-financial network with the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) method to produce well-defined measures of intra-system and cross-system risk contagion. We investigate the differences in risk contagion under different types of major events using an event study model. The empirical results show that the financial system is the center of risk contagion. Regarding the direction of the cross-system risk contagion, the risk contagion from the financial to the macroeconomic system dominates the contagion in the opposite direction. The impacts of financial and pandemic shocks on the macro-financial risk contagion differ significantly. Importantly, both investor sentiment and consumer confidence mediate these impacts, providing useful insights into the prevention of risk contagion.

我们探索和比较了全球金融危机和新冠肺炎大流行时期不同冲击下风险传染的基本规律。利用2003年1月1日至2010年12月31日和2015年1月1日至2021年12月31日两个时期金融市场指数的日收益率和宏观经济数据的月增长率，我们用混合频率向量自回归（MF-VAR）方法构建了一个宏观金融网络，以产生明确的系统内和跨系统风险传染度量。我们使用事件研究模型研究了不同类型的重大事件下风险传染的差异。实证结果表明，金融体系是风险传染的中心。从跨系统风险传染的方向看，从金融到宏观经济系统的风险传染主导了反方向的风险传染。金融冲击和大流行病冲击对宏观金融风险传染的影响存在显著差异。重要的是，投资者情绪和消费者信心都是这些影响的中介，为预防风险蔓延提供了有用的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Demographic transition and inflation 人口结构转型与通货膨胀

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101214

Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg

We propose a few testable hypotheses to examine the impact of demographic transition on inflation. We contribute to the existing literature by refining the formulation of hypotheses and treatment of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence by implementing the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) procedure that adopts dynamic common correlated predictors. To this end, we consider two panels consisting of eight advanced economies (AEs) and sixteen emerging market economies (EMEs) to gain insights into the current asymmetric global demographic transition. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that the share of the working-age population is inflationary in AEs and disinflationary in EMEs. This analysis suggests that an asymmetry in demographic transition between AEs and EMEs influences inflation differently. Our findings offer clues to policymakers regarding the influence of the cohort size of the prime and young working-age population on inflation. Specifically, policymakers in emerging markets should incorporate information about the changing structure of demographic variables as the asymmetry in transition can lead to varying impacts on inflation compared to the impacts in advanced nations.

我们提出了几个可检验的假设来检验人口结构转变对通货膨胀的影响。我们通过实施采用动态共同相关预测因子的横截面增强自回归分布滞后（CS-ARDL）程序，完善假设的制定和坡度异质性和横截面依赖性的处理，从而为现有文献做出贡献。为此，我们考虑了由8个发达经济体（ae）和16个新兴市场经济体（eme）组成的两个小组，以深入了解当前不对称的全球人口转型。我们的综合分析表明，劳动年龄人口的比例在发达国家是通货膨胀的，在新兴市场是通货紧缩的。这一分析表明，ae和eme之间的人口过渡不对称对通货膨胀的影响不同。我们的研究结果为政策制定者提供了关于壮年和年轻劳动年龄人口群体规模对通货膨胀影响的线索。具体而言，新兴市场的政策制定者应纳入有关人口变量结构变化的信息，因为与发达国家的影响相比，转型中的不对称可能导致对通胀的不同影响。

{"title":"Demographic transition and inflation","authors":"Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg","doi":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101214","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101214","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We propose a few testable hypotheses to examine the impact of demographic transition on inflation<span>. We contribute to the existing literature by refining the formulation of hypotheses and treatment of slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence by implementing the cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag (CS-ARDL) procedure that adopts dynamic common correlated predictors. To this end, we consider two panels consisting of eight advanced economies (AEs) and sixteen emerging market economies (EMEs) to gain insights into the current asymmetric global demographic transition. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that the share of the working-age population is inflationary in AEs and disinflationary in EMEs. This analysis suggests that an asymmetry in demographic transition between AEs and EMEs influences inflation differently. Our findings offer clues to policymakers regarding the influence of the cohort size of the prime and young working-age population on inflation. Specifically, policymakers in emerging markets should incorporate information about the changing structure of demographic variables as the asymmetry in transition can lead to varying impacts on inflation compared to the impacts in advanced nations.</span></div></div>","PeriodicalId":51505,"journal":{"name":"Economic Systems","volume":"48 4","pages":"Article 101214"},"PeriodicalIF":2.8,"publicationDate":"2024-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140082847","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Why developing countries need a new central bank paradigm: Evidence from the Middle East and North Africa region 为什么发展中国家需要新的中央银行范式？中东和北非地区的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101230

Mohamad A. Abou Hamia

This study utilizes a panel of Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) economies to argue that developing countries need a new central bank paradigm. The study measures central bank independence in the MENA region. We leverage this measure of central bank independence to analyze its impact on inflation rates, economic growth rates, and unemployment rates. Our robust empirical results reveal that central bank independence has no effect on inflation rates, plays no role in economic growth, and does not contribute to job creation. The findings suggest that fixed exchange rates—rather than central bank independence—have been responsible for price stability in the MENA region over the past three decades. The prevailing central bank paradigm assumes that achieving and maintaining price stability would encourage private investment, which would subsequently promote sustained economic growth and job creation in the long term. As developing countries have failed to sustain economic growth and create decent jobs over the past thirty years, the study argues that price stability cannot be maintained, and central bank independence in these countries is likely to diminish. Consequently, the study calls for a new central bank paradigm that empowers central banks to play a more active role both in financing short-term government needs and in creating decent jobs in developing countries.

本研究利用中东和北非（MENA）经济体的一个小组来论证发展中国家需要一个新的中央银行范式。该研究衡量了中东和北非地区央行的独立性。我们利用这一衡量央行独立性的指标来分析其对通货膨胀率、经济增长率和失业率的影响。我们强有力的实证结果表明，中央银行的独立性对通货膨胀率没有影响，对经济增长没有作用，也无助于创造就业机会。研究结果表明，在过去的30年里，固定汇率——而不是中央银行的独立性——对中东和北非地区的价格稳定负有责任。普遍的中央银行模式认为，实现和维持价格稳定将鼓励私人投资，从而在长期内促进持续的经济增长和创造就业机会。由于发展中国家在过去30年里未能维持经济增长和创造体面的就业机会，该研究认为，价格稳定无法维持，这些国家的央行独立性可能会减弱。因此，该研究呼吁建立一种新的中央银行模式，使中央银行能够在为短期政府需求融资和在发展中国家创造体面就业方面发挥更积极的作用。

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引用次数: 0

Is there a "Machine Substitution"? How does the digital economy reshape the employment structure in emerging market countries 是否存在 "机器替代"？数字经济如何重塑新兴市场国家的就业结构？

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101237

Yingzi Qu , Sha Fan

The exponential growth of the digital economy, particularly in emerging market countries, has significantly reshaped employment structures characterized by substitution and supplementation effects. Will "machine substitution" result in labor flow between sectors, or will it precipitate a polarization of employment skills akin to the patterns observed in industrialized countries and lead to structural unemployment? These issues have not yet been adequately addressed. This study aims to fill this gap by examining the impact of digital economy development on the employment structure, considering both sectoral and skill perspectives. Using a panel dataset encompassing 30 emerging market countries between 2006 and 2020, we find that as the digital economy grows, the employment structure from the sectoral perspective improves in a way that favors the tertiary sector, while the employment structure from the skill perspective shows an evolutionary process from a monotonically upgrading effect to "polarization," which differs from the pattern observed in developed countries. The digital economy’s impact on emerging market countries displays discernible heterogeneity and stage-specific characteristics. The mechanism analysis underscores the role of entrepreneurial activity and the relative importance of the tertiary sector compared to the primary sector, as measured by value-added, in mediating the digital economy's effect on the employment structure. Finally, our threshold test reveals a nonlinear regulatory effect of the digital economy on the employment structure, highlighting its critical implications for policymakers and businesses.

数字经济的指数级增长，特别是在新兴市场国家，显著重塑了以替代和补充效应为特征的就业结构。“机器替代”会导致各部门之间的劳动力流动，还是会导致就业技能的两极分化，类似于工业化国家所观察到的模式，并导致结构性失业？这些问题尚未得到充分解决。本研究旨在通过研究数字经济发展对就业结构的影响来填补这一空白，同时考虑到部门和技能的角度。利用涵盖30个新兴市场国家2006 - 2020年的面板数据，我们发现，随着数字经济的发展，行业视角下的就业结构向有利于第三产业的方向改善，而技能视角下的就业结构则呈现出从单调升级效应到“极化”的演化过程，这与发达国家的模式不同。数字经济对新兴市场国家的影响表现出明显的异质性和阶段性特征。机制分析强调了创业活动的作用，以及第三产业相对于第一产业的相对重要性（以增加值衡量），在中介数字经济对就业结构的影响方面。最后，我们的阈值测试揭示了数字经济对就业结构的非线性调节效应，突出了其对政策制定者和企业的重要影响。

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引用次数: 0

Determinants of school dropouts and the impact on youth unemployment: Evidence from Ethiopia 辍学的决定因素及其对青年失业的影响：埃塞俄比亚的证据

IF 2.8 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Systems

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecosys.2024.101228

Million Sileshi, Kedir Jemal, Bekele Wegi Feyisa

Despite significant youth school dropouts in Ethiopia, the household characteristics that contribute to dropouts and the impact of dropouts on youth unemployment remain unclear. To fill this gap, this study analyzes the factors that influence youth dropouts and evaluates the impact of dropouts on youth unemployment in Ethiopia using data from the 2019 World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study-Integrated Surveys on Agriculture. We employ endogenous switching regression to estimate the impact of youth dropouts on the likelihood that a household has unemployed youths and the number of unemployed youths in the household. The findings reveal that different parental characteristics such as age, education, and whether parents live together are negatively associated with the probability of youth dropouts, while households with a Muslim head are more likely to have school dropouts than Orthodox-headed households. Households who have multiple income sources, are located in rural areas, are located far from the school, and have disabled family members are also found to be more likely to have youth dropouts. In addition, our findings reveal that youth dropouts increase the probability of having unemployed youths in the household and raise the number of unemployed youths in the household. The study’s findings highlight the need for considering households’ characteristics and other factors associated with youth dropouts when developing educational interventions to reduce youth dropouts in Ethiopia. Furthermore, investment in parental education and infrastructural facilities such as roads and schools could reduce youth unemployment in Ethiopia, particularly in rural areas where public schools are the only option.

尽管埃塞俄比亚青年辍学率很高，但导致辍学的家庭特征以及辍学对青年失业的影响仍不清楚。为了填补这一空白，本研究分析了影响青年辍学的因素，并利用2019年世界银行生活水平衡量研究-农业综合调查的数据评估了辍学对埃塞俄比亚青年失业的影响。我们使用内生转换回归来估计青年辍学对家庭中有失业青年的可能性和家庭中失业青年人数的影响。研究结果显示，不同的父母特征，如年龄、教育程度和父母是否住在一起，与青少年辍学的可能性呈负相关，而穆斯林户主的家庭比东正教户主的家庭更有可能辍学。研究还发现，有多种收入来源、位于农村地区、离学校很远、家庭成员有残疾的家庭更有可能出现青少年辍学。此外，我们的研究结果显示，青年辍学增加了家庭中失业青年的可能性，并增加了家庭中失业青年的数量。该研究的结果强调，在制定教育干预措施以减少埃塞俄比亚的青少年辍学时，需要考虑家庭特征和其他与青少年辍学相关的因素。此外，对父母教育和道路和学校等基础设施的投资可以减少埃塞俄比亚的青年失业率，特别是在公立学校是唯一选择的农村地区。

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引用次数: 0