地点对投票行为的影响：亚利桑那州娱乐用大麻合法化提案案例

IF 1.4 Q2 POLITICAL SCIENCE Politics & Policy Pub Date : 2024-01-27 DOI:10.1111/polp.12580

Mason Clay Mathews, A. Stewart Fotheringham

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摘要

2020 年，亚利桑那州人批准了 207 号提案，即《亚利桑那州智能与安全法案》，该法案将娱乐性大麻销售合法化。以往的研究通常使用非空间调查数据来了解大麻合法化的投票模式。然而，投票行为在一定程度上会受到地理环境或地点的影响，而这在非空间调查数据中是无法体现的。我们使用多尺度地理加权回归分析了地方如何影响 207 号提案的投票行为，而不受空间人口变化的影响。我们发现，207 号提案的投票对反对和支持娱乐性大麻合法化的几个预测变量变化的敏感性存在明显的空间差异。我们认为，与目前使用的全局模型相比，地方统计建模方法能更深入地了解选票措施投票行为。2018."Mary Jane Rocks the Vote: The Impact of Climate Context on Support for Cannabis Initiatives." Politics & Policy 46(2).政治与政策》46（2）：https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12248.Brekken, Katheryn C., and Vanessa M. Fenley.2020."Part of the Narrative：美国娱乐大麻政策子系统中的通用新闻框架"。政治与政策》49（1）：https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12388.Fisk, Jonathan M., Joseph A. Vonasek, and Elvis Davis.2018."Pot'reneurial Politics：The Budgetary Highs and Lows of Recreational Marijuana Policy Innovation." Politics & Policy 46(2).政治与政策》46（2）：189–208. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12246.

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The effect of place on voting behavior: The case of the Arizona proposition to legalize recreational marijuana

In 2020, Arizonans approved Proposition 207, the Smart and Safe Arizona Act, which legalized recreational marijuana sales. Previous research has typically used non-spatial survey data to understand marijuana legalization voting patterns. However, voting behavior can, in part, be shaped by geographic context, or place, which is unaccounted for in aspatial survey data. We use multiscale geographically weighted regression to analyze how place shaped Proposition 207 voting behavior, independently of demographic variations across space. We find significant spatial variability in the sensitivity of voting for Proposition 207 to changes in several of the predictor variables of opposition and support for recreational marijuana legalization. We argue that local statistical modeling approaches provide a more in-depth understanding of ballot measure voting behavior than the current use of global models.