从不同现货市场识别原油价格泡沫并进行风险评估:建立可持续能源政策

Jiayue Wang, Kun Ma, Ling Zhang, Jinghong Wei, Jianzhong Wang
{"title":"从不同现货市场识别原油价格泡沫并进行风险评估:建立可持续能源政策","authors":"Jiayue Wang, Kun Ma, Ling Zhang, Jinghong Wei, Jianzhong Wang","doi":"10.13052/spee1048-5236.4321","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"Crude oil, as a strategic energy resource for social development, has witnessed substantial price fluctuations in recent years, impacting the sustainability of economy, ecological environment, and energy security. This paper utilized weekly crude oil price data from January 2003 to March 2023 to examine price bubbles in different markets using the SADF and GSADF methods, identified the duration of price bubbles by comparing the BSADF series with critical value series, assessed the risk of price bubbles in different markets using the established comprehensive indicators, and explored sustainable energy policies from the perspectives of both crude oil importers and exporters. The findings of this study indicate that bubbles exist in the world’s major crude oil markets, with linkages and differences in their origin and termination across different markets. The risk of price bubbles varies widely across different crude oil markets and has significant geographical characteristics, with a higher risk in the markets such as OPEC, Oman, and Dubai, and a lower risk in the markets such as WTI, Brent, and Daqing. This paper proposes sustainable energy policies from the perspective of energy importers and exporters. This is of great importance to enhance the ability of different countries to cope with the risk of crude oil price bubbles and to ensure the sustainability of economic development, ecological environment, and energy security.","PeriodicalId":35712,"journal":{"name":"Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment","volume":" 4","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-01-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Crude Oil Price Bubble Identification and Risk Assessment From Different Spot Markets: Establishing a Sustainable Energy Policy\",\"authors\":\"Jiayue Wang, Kun Ma, Ling Zhang, Jinghong Wei, Jianzhong Wang\",\"doi\":\"10.13052/spee1048-5236.4321\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"Crude oil, as a strategic energy resource for social development, has witnessed substantial price fluctuations in recent years, impacting the sustainability of economy, ecological environment, and energy security. This paper utilized weekly crude oil price data from January 2003 to March 2023 to examine price bubbles in different markets using the SADF and GSADF methods, identified the duration of price bubbles by comparing the BSADF series with critical value series, assessed the risk of price bubbles in different markets using the established comprehensive indicators, and explored sustainable energy policies from the perspectives of both crude oil importers and exporters. The findings of this study indicate that bubbles exist in the world’s major crude oil markets, with linkages and differences in their origin and termination across different markets. The risk of price bubbles varies widely across different crude oil markets and has significant geographical characteristics, with a higher risk in the markets such as OPEC, Oman, and Dubai, and a lower risk in the markets such as WTI, Brent, and Daqing. This paper proposes sustainable energy policies from the perspective of energy importers and exporters. This is of great importance to enhance the ability of different countries to cope with the risk of crude oil price bubbles and to ensure the sustainability of economic development, ecological environment, and energy security.\",\"PeriodicalId\":35712,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment\",\"volume\":\" 4\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-01-14\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.13052/spee1048-5236.4321\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"Environmental Science\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.13052/spee1048-5236.4321","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Environmental Science","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0

摘要

原油作为社会发展的战略能源,近年来价格大幅波动,对经济的可持续发展、生态环境和能源安全产生了影响。本文利用 2003 年 1 月至 2023 年 3 月的每周原油价格数据,采用 SADF 和 GSADF 方法研究了不同市场的价格泡沫,通过比较 BSADF 序列和临界值序列确定了价格泡沫的持续时间,利用已建立的综合指标评估了不同市场的价格泡沫风险,并从原油进口国和出口国的角度探讨了可持续能源政策。研究结果表明,全球主要原油市场都存在泡沫,不同市场的泡沫起源和终止存在联系和差异。不同原油市场的价格泡沫风险差异较大,且具有明显的地域特征,欧佩克、阿曼、迪拜等市场风险较高,WTI、布伦特、大庆等市场风险较低。本文从能源进口国和出口国的角度提出了可持续能源政策。这对于提高各国应对原油价格泡沫风险的能力,确保经济发展、生态环境和能源安全的可持续性具有重要意义。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
查看原文
分享 分享
微信好友 朋友圈 QQ好友 复制链接
本刊更多论文
Crude Oil Price Bubble Identification and Risk Assessment From Different Spot Markets: Establishing a Sustainable Energy Policy
Crude oil, as a strategic energy resource for social development, has witnessed substantial price fluctuations in recent years, impacting the sustainability of economy, ecological environment, and energy security. This paper utilized weekly crude oil price data from January 2003 to March 2023 to examine price bubbles in different markets using the SADF and GSADF methods, identified the duration of price bubbles by comparing the BSADF series with critical value series, assessed the risk of price bubbles in different markets using the established comprehensive indicators, and explored sustainable energy policies from the perspectives of both crude oil importers and exporters. The findings of this study indicate that bubbles exist in the world’s major crude oil markets, with linkages and differences in their origin and termination across different markets. The risk of price bubbles varies widely across different crude oil markets and has significant geographical characteristics, with a higher risk in the markets such as OPEC, Oman, and Dubai, and a lower risk in the markets such as WTI, Brent, and Daqing. This paper proposes sustainable energy policies from the perspective of energy importers and exporters. This is of great importance to enhance the ability of different countries to cope with the risk of crude oil price bubbles and to ensure the sustainability of economic development, ecological environment, and energy security.
求助全文
通过发布文献求助,成功后即可免费获取论文全文。 去求助
来源期刊
Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment
Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment Environmental Science-Environmental Science (all)
CiteScore
1.50
自引率
0.00%
发文量
25
期刊最新文献
Application of Digital Economy Machine Learning Algorithm for Predicting Carbon Trading Prices Under Carbon Reduction Trends Low-Carbon Economic Dispatch of Integrated Energy Systems in Multi-Form Energy-intensive Parks Based on the ICT-GRU Prediction Model Installation Technique and Numerical Simulation of Stress on High-Pile Footings During the Translation of Offshore Booster Stations Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Logistics Efficiency of Urban Farm Products in the Context of Low-carbon Economy The Relationship Between Green Finance, Sustainable Technological Innovation and Energy Efficiency
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
已复制链接
已复制链接
快去分享给好友吧!
我知道了
×
扫码分享
扫码分享
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1