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Design of Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Model Based on Deep Neural Network 基于深度神经网络的短期电力负荷预测模型设计
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.43211
Qinwei Duan, Zhu Chao, Cong Fu, Yashan Zhong, Jiaxin Zhuo, Ye Liao
In power system operation and planning, the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting is very important. Because of its powerful data processing and modeling ability, deep neural network has become an effective tool to accurately predict short-term power load. In this study, a short-term power load prediction model based on deep neural network is designed, which adopts deep long short-term memory and threshold period unit model, and combines Boosting algorithm for model fusion. The results show that the average absolute percentage error of the model fused by Boosting algorithm is 0.07%, which is 1.02% lower than the average weight method and 0.59% lower than the reciprocal error method. Boosting fusion model can effectively reduce the overall prediction error and maintain high stability of prediction error at peak, plateau and time sampling points, so as to achieve good prediction effect. Specifically, the MAPE of the model fused using Boosting algorithm is 0.07% (95% confidence), which is 1.14% higher than the average weight method and 0.79% higher than the reciprocal error method. The design of short-term power load forecasting model based on deep neural network can provide more accurate prediction for power system operation and planning, and help to improve the operation efficiency and reliability of power system. At the same time, the design and application of this model also provide a new idea and method for the application of deep learning in power system. The introduction of Boosting algorithm further improves the prediction accuracy and stability of the model, which is a major innovation in model design.
在电力系统运行和规划中,短期电力负荷预测的准确性非常重要。深度神经网络具有强大的数据处理和建模能力,已成为准确预测短期电力负荷的有效工具。本研究设计了一种基于深度神经网络的短期电力负荷预测模型,该模型采用深度长短期记忆和阈值周期单元模型,并结合 Boosting 算法进行模型融合。结果表明,Boosting 算法融合模型的平均绝对百分比误差为 0.07%,比平均权重法低 1.02%,比倒易误差法低 0.59%。提升融合模型能有效降低整体预测误差,并在峰值、高原和时间采样点上保持预测误差的高度稳定性,从而达到良好的预测效果。具体来说,使用 Boosting 算法融合模型的 MAPE 为 0.07%(95% 置信度),比平均权重法高 1.14%,比倒易误差法高 0.79%。基于深度神经网络的短期电力负荷预测模型的设计可以为电力系统的运行和规划提供更准确的预测,有助于提高电力系统的运行效率和可靠性。同时,该模型的设计和应用也为深度学习在电力系统中的应用提供了新的思路和方法。Boosting算法的引入进一步提高了模型的预测精度和稳定性,是模型设计的一大创新。
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引用次数: 0
Competitive Pricing Strategy of Wind-Solar-Fire Coupling System in Monthly Concentrated Market Considering the Uncertainty of Renewable Energy 考虑到可再生能源的不确定性,月度集中市场中风能-太阳能-火力耦合系统的竞争性定价策略
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4322
Guoliang Bian, Meng Yiqun, Gu Yi, Chuang Liu, Hu Bo, Guiping Zhou, Huanhuan Luo, Yuanzhu Zhao, Yiming Chang, Zhonghui Wang
Monthly centralized bidding is a key link in the transition from annual bilateral trading to spot trading, the research object of this paper is the multi-type power system (coupling system) which is integrated and coupled by thermal power and renewable energy under the same grid point, from the market point of view, this paper discusses its competitive strategy and revenue in the monthly centralized bidding market. First, an outer-level market clearing model that adapts to the participation of the coupling system is constructed to maximize the clearing in terms of social welfare. Secondly, considering the forecast error of scenery, the optimization model of the inner coupling system is established to analyze the cost of the coupling system, and the increment of the coupling system is evaluated quantitatively. Finally, a two-layer optimization model for coupling system to participate in the monthly centralized bidding market is formed, and then the optimal operation strategy of coupling system is studied. The simulation verification of the calculation example shows that participating in the monthly centralized bidding transaction in the mode of the coupling system will increase the income of each of the scenery and fire, the proposed coupling system model promotes changes in the energy structure of the power market, driven by improving the overall economic benefits, ensuring the economic benefits of traditional units and expanding the scope of the renewable energy market, so as to provide electricity to renewable energy and thermal power to improve auxiliary services. The development of the situation provides new ideas for the large-scale grid-connected consumption of new energy.
月度集中竞价是年度双边交易向现货交易过渡的关键环节,本文的研究对象是同一网点下火电与可再生能源集成耦合的多类型电力系统(耦合系统),从市场角度探讨其在月度集中竞价市场中的竞争策略和收益。首先,构建了适应耦合系统参与的外层市场清算模型,从社会福利角度实现清算最大化。其次,考虑景气预测误差,建立内部耦合系统优化模型,分析耦合系统成本,定量评估耦合系统增量。最后,形成耦合系统参与月度集中竞价市场的双层优化模型,进而研究耦合系统的最优运行策略。计算实例的仿真验证表明,以耦合系统的模式参与月度集中竞价交易,将增加各风景火的收益,所提出的耦合系统模式促进了电力市场能源结构的变化,在提高整体经济效益的带动下,保证了传统机组的经济效益,扩大了可再生能源市场的范围,从而为可再生能源和火电提供电能,提高辅助服务。形势的发展为新能源大规模并网消纳提供了新思路。
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引用次数: 0
Low-Carbon Economic Dispatch of Integrated Energy Systems in Multi-Form Energy-intensive Parks Based on the ICT-GRU Prediction Model 基于 ICT-GRU 预测模型的多形式能源密集型园区综合能源系统的低碳经济调度
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4323
LiaoYi Ning, Kai Liang, Bo Zhang, Yang Gao, Zhilin Xu
This paper presents a solution to the issues of redundancy and ambiguity in predicting variables associated with renewable energy output while aligning with the objectives of the “dual-carbon” energy strategy. A low-carbon economic dispatch method for multi-form energy-intensive parks is proposed, employing the ICT-GRU prediction model. Leveraging historical generation data, the ICT-GRU model enables accurate forecasting of renewable energy output. Subsequently, a comprehensive energy system model is developed considering the carbon emission characteristics and control features of park entities. The model aims to minimize operational costs and facilitate low-carbon economic dispatch. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated through a case study conducted in a multi-form energy-intensive load park integrated into a power grid. The results validate its capability to achieve low-carbon economic operation and provide valuable insights for grid dispatch optimization.
本文提出了一种解决方案,既能解决可再生能源产出相关变量预测中的冗余和模糊问题,又能与 "双碳 "能源战略的目标保持一致。本文采用 ICT-GRU 预测模型,为多形式能源密集型园区提出了一种低碳经济调度方法。利用历史发电数据,ICT-GRU 模型能够准确预测可再生能源的产出。随后,考虑到碳排放特征和园区实体的控制特点,建立了一个综合能源系统模型。该模型旨在最大限度地降低运营成本,促进低碳经济调度。通过对一个并入电网的多形式能源密集型负荷园区进行案例研究,证明了所提方法的有效性。结果验证了该方法实现低碳经济运行的能力,并为电网调度优化提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Crude Oil Price Bubble Identification and Risk Assessment From Different Spot Markets: Establishing a Sustainable Energy Policy 从不同现货市场识别原油价格泡沫并进行风险评估:建立可持续能源政策
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4321
Jiayue Wang, Kun Ma, Ling Zhang, Jinghong Wei, Jianzhong Wang
Crude oil, as a strategic energy resource for social development, has witnessed substantial price fluctuations in recent years, impacting the sustainability of economy, ecological environment, and energy security. This paper utilized weekly crude oil price data from January 2003 to March 2023 to examine price bubbles in different markets using the SADF and GSADF methods, identified the duration of price bubbles by comparing the BSADF series with critical value series, assessed the risk of price bubbles in different markets using the established comprehensive indicators, and explored sustainable energy policies from the perspectives of both crude oil importers and exporters. The findings of this study indicate that bubbles exist in the world’s major crude oil markets, with linkages and differences in their origin and termination across different markets. The risk of price bubbles varies widely across different crude oil markets and has significant geographical characteristics, with a higher risk in the markets such as OPEC, Oman, and Dubai, and a lower risk in the markets such as WTI, Brent, and Daqing. This paper proposes sustainable energy policies from the perspective of energy importers and exporters. This is of great importance to enhance the ability of different countries to cope with the risk of crude oil price bubbles and to ensure the sustainability of economic development, ecological environment, and energy security.
原油作为社会发展的战略能源,近年来价格大幅波动,对经济的可持续发展、生态环境和能源安全产生了影响。本文利用 2003 年 1 月至 2023 年 3 月的每周原油价格数据,采用 SADF 和 GSADF 方法研究了不同市场的价格泡沫,通过比较 BSADF 序列和临界值序列确定了价格泡沫的持续时间,利用已建立的综合指标评估了不同市场的价格泡沫风险,并从原油进口国和出口国的角度探讨了可持续能源政策。研究结果表明,全球主要原油市场都存在泡沫,不同市场的泡沫起源和终止存在联系和差异。不同原油市场的价格泡沫风险差异较大,且具有明显的地域特征,欧佩克、阿曼、迪拜等市场风险较高,WTI、布伦特、大庆等市场风险较低。本文从能源进口国和出口国的角度提出了可持续能源政策。这对于提高各国应对原油价格泡沫风险的能力,确保经济发展、生态环境和能源安全的可持续性具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Soil Moisture Prediction Model Based on Improved GRU Recurrent Neural Network 基于改进型 GRU 循环神经网络的土壤水分预测模型
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4329
Guowei Wang, Chunying Wei, Li Yan, Jian Li
Soil moisture plays a crucial role in land water and energy cycles, and has a certain impact on weather and climate change. In agricultural production, crop moisture status can be determined based on soil moisture, and timely and effective irrigation strategies can be formulated to ensure grain yield while saving water resources, maximizing the value of agricultural water resource utilization, and achieving sustainable development. Therefore, the accuracy of soil moisture prediction has important research value for many fields such as agriculture and climate. In this paper, the super parameters of GRU Recurrent neural network are optimized by intelligent seagull optimization algorithm using a small number of influencing factors, namely, atmospheric temperature, atmospheric humidity, rainfall and soil moisture data, and a soil moisture prediction model is established. The model was used to predict soil moisture for the next 12 hours, 24 hours, 36 hours, and 48 hours, respectively. The final experiment showed that the model in this paper had better predictive effect on soil moisture, with the best predictive evaluation index data being MAPE (12h) = 4.4120%, R2 (12h) = 0.94605, and RMSE (12h) = 1.9998; By comparing the prediction results of multiple time steps vertically, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the model in this paper decreased more smoothly, meeting the requirements of soil moisture prediction.
土壤水分在土地水能循环中起着至关重要的作用,对天气和气候变化也有一定的影响。在农业生产中,可以根据土壤墒情判断作物墒情状况,制定及时有效的灌溉策略,在保证粮食产量的同时节约水资源,实现农业水资源利用价值的最大化和可持续发展。因此,土壤水分预测的准确性对农业、气候等诸多领域具有重要的研究价值。本文利用少量影响因素,即大气温度、大气湿度、降雨量和土壤水分数据,通过智能海鸥优化算法对 GRU 循环神经网络的超级参数进行优化,建立了土壤水分预测模型。该模型分别用于预测未来 12 小时、24 小时、36 小时和 48 小时的土壤水分。最终实验结果表明,本文模型对土壤墒情的预测效果较好,最佳预测评价指标数据为MAPE(12h)=4.4120%,R2(12h)=0.94605,RMSE(12h)=1.9998;通过纵向比较多个时间步长的预测结果,发现本文模型的预测精度下降较为平稳,满足土壤墒情预测的要求。
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引用次数: 0
The Relationship Between Green Finance, Sustainable Technological Innovation and Energy Efficiency 绿色金融、可持续技术创新与能效之间的关系
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.43212
Miaomiao Zhu
Sustainable technological innovation can promote this progress in finance. This optimization and upgrading of energy efficiency can provide a good energy environment for green development. The collaborative innovation of financial enterprises has brought such development to the tertiary industry, driving the upgrading of consumer demand, and thus promoting the development of green finance. At this same time, sustainable technological innovation will increase investment in environmental protection, reduce energy consumption, promote the reduction of carbon emissions in the financial industry, and accelerate the development of green finance. This paper uses the data envelopment analysis method to calculate the Marquis production efficiency index, examines the dynamic generation efficiency of intertemporal energy input and output, and calculates the energy efficiency of green finance. This article measures and deconstructs energy efficiency at the provincial level, and pays attention to its changes. The study depicted the efficiency distribution of 28 provinces in two stages of the survey period. By using random kernel estimation for two periods during the survey period, dynamic distribution three-dimensional maps and density contour maps of total factor energy productivity, energy utilization efficiency, and energy allocation efficiency growth rates were drawn for the two periods. The results show that the transfer probability group of energy efficiency and its decomposition terms mainly falls near the diagonal, indicating that TFP and its decomposition term growth rate have certain transferability. From 2005 to 2015, the energy utilization efficiency of the seven economic regions has been significantly improved, and the energy efficiency differences in different regions have gradually converged. The energy efficiency of the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta is the highest and has been continuously improved, followed by the Beijing Delta, the central region, the northeast region and the southwest region are again in terms of energy efficiency. Compared with provinces with relatively poor industrial structures, provinces with better industrial structures do not have significant advantages in energy efficiency, while provinces with higher levels of technological innovation typically have relatively higher energy efficiency.
可持续的技术创新可以促进金融的进步。这种能效的优化升级,可以为绿色发展提供良好的能源环境。金融企业的协同创新为第三产业带来了这样的发展,带动了消费需求的升级,进而推动了绿色金融的发展。同时,可持续的技术创新将加大环保投入,降低能源消耗,促进金融业减少碳排放,加快绿色金融的发展。本文运用数据包络分析法计算了马奎斯生产效率指数,考察了能源投入产出的跨时动态生成效率,计算了绿色金融的能源效率。本文对省级能源效率进行了测算和解构,并关注其变化。研究描绘了 28 个省份在两个调查阶段的能效分布。通过对调查期两个阶段的随机核估计,绘制了两个阶段全要素能源生产率、能源利用效率和能源配置效率增长率的动态分布立体图和密度等值线图。结果显示,能源效率及其分解项的转移概率群主要落在对角线附近,说明全要素生产率及其分解项增长率具有一定的转移性。从 2005 年到 2015 年,七大经济区的能源利用效率显著提高,不同地区的能源效率差异逐渐收敛。其中,长三角和珠三角的能源利用效率最高且持续提升,京三角次之,中部地区、东北地区和西南地区的能源利用效率再次提升。与产业结构相对落后的省份相比,产业结构较好的省份在能效方面优势不明显,而技术创新水平较高的省份通常能效相对较高。
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引用次数: 0
Prediction and Management of Building Energy Consumption Based on Building Environment Simulation Design Platform DeST and Meteorological Data Analysis Algorithm 基于建筑环境模拟设计平台 DeST 和气象数据分析算法的建筑能耗预测与管理
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4328
Chaoqin Bai, Junrui Liu
Currently, the carbon emissions of building energy consumption account for a significant portion of all carbon emissions. How to reduce carbon emissions to achieve carbon neutrality is an important current research direction. Therefore this research builds a predictive algorithm model for analyzing energy consumption data of meteorological buildings using DeST platform for energy saving and emission reduction to achieve carbon neutrality. The new model uses Internet of Things and cloud platform technology to build a simulation building platform, and uses the support vector machine algorithm in the analysis algorithm to vectorize building energy consumption data, which can achieve normalization processing of building energy consumption and meteorological data. By processing building energy consumption data, prediction of building energy consumption at the next moment can be achieved. The experimental results show that the precision and accuracy of the new algorithm are higher than genetic algorithm 1 and 0.15 respectively, and 0.6 and 0.07 higher than clustering analysis algorithm respectively. Therefore, applying this algorithm model to building energy consumption prediction can significantly improve the accuracy and precision of the algorithm.
目前,建筑能耗所产生的碳排放占所有碳排放的很大一部分。如何减少碳排放,实现碳中和是当前重要的研究方向。因此,本研究利用 DeST 平台建立了一个气象建筑能耗数据分析预测算法模型,用于节能减排,实现碳中和。新模型利用物联网和云平台技术构建仿真建筑平台,在分析算法中采用支持向量机算法对建筑能耗数据进行向量化处理,可实现建筑能耗和气象数据的归一化处理。通过对建筑能耗数据的处理,可以实现对下一时刻建筑能耗的预测。实验结果表明,新算法的精度和准确度分别比遗传算法高 1 和 0.15,比聚类分析算法分别高 0.6 和 0.07。因此,将该算法模型应用于建筑能耗预测,可以显著提高算法的准确性和精确度。
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引用次数: 0
Installation Technique and Numerical Simulation of Stress on High-Pile Footings During the Translation of Offshore Booster Stations 海上升压站平移过程中高桩基底应力的安装技术和数值模拟
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4325
Maoqiang Zhou
The foundation of the offshore substation mainly adopts the structure of a conductor support frame, and the installation of the upper blocks of the offshore substation mainly employs a lifting vessel for hoisting. The “Zhegen Sha 300 MW Offshore Wind Power Project” adopts a high-pile cap foundation for the offshore substation, making use of a translational installation method for the upper blocks. The innovative foundation design and installation scheme together form the basis of this project, which is explored in detail in this paper. Numerical simulations examining the bearing performance of the high-pile cap foundation during the translational process of the upper blocks are also performed, allowing finer insights into the design and construction of offshore wind power projects.
海上变电站基础主要采用导线支撑架结构,海上变电站上部构件安装主要采用起重船吊装。浙能沙 300 兆瓦海上风电项目 "海上变电站采用高桩帽基础,上部构件采用平移安装方式。创新的基础设计和安装方案共同构成了该项目的基础,本文对此进行了详细探讨。此外,还进行了数值模拟,检查了高桩帽地基在上部岩块平移过程中的承载性能,从而对海上风电项目的设计和施工有了更深入的了解。
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引用次数: 0
Intelligent Processing of Power Operation Data Based on Improved Apriori Algorithm 基于改进的 Apriori 算法的电力运行数据智能处理技术
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.43213
Xin Zhao, Changda Huang
This paper addresses several problems in the power system. Key challenges include low-power information integration, inappropriate system data management, inaccurate system data updating, and inefficient fault diagnosis. We focus on analyzing and diagnosing transmission line faults using the operation data of the power system. The study incorporates the quantitative identification of statements. This is done using the Apriori big data analysis and calculation method. Additionally, we utilize big data analysis and vast power operation data. We aim to achieve automatic analysis and pinpoint the causes of transmission line faults. Furthermore, we seek to optimize the traditional Apriori calculation method. This optimization results in a reduction of about 52% in the candidate item set calculation. The optimized M-Apriori calculation method can analyze the correlation between event index data and faults in real time, and realize automatic diagnosis and analysis of faults through operation data.
本文探讨了电力系统中的几个问题。主要挑战包括低功耗信息集成、不恰当的系统数据管理、不准确的系统数据更新以及低效的故障诊断。我们的重点是利用电力系统的运行数据分析和诊断输电线路故障。该研究结合了语句的定量识别。这是利用 Apriori 大数据分析和计算方法完成的。此外,我们还利用了大数据分析和庞大的电力运行数据。我们的目标是实现自动分析,准确定位输电线路故障的原因。此外,我们还力求优化传统的 Apriori 计算方法。优化后,候选项集计算量减少了约 52%。优化后的 M-Apriori 计算方法可实时分析事件指标数据与故障之间的相关性,并通过运行数据实现故障的自动诊断和分析。
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引用次数: 0
Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Logistics Efficiency of Urban Farm Products in the Context of Low-carbon Economy 低碳经济背景下影响城市农产品物流效率的因素分析
Q3 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.13052/spee1048-5236.4324
Xiaolu Wang, Danyue Ni
The refrigeration equipment used to preserve the freshness of farm products in the farm logistics process generates carbon emissions, so the factors affecting the logistics efficiency need to be analyzed to make it sustainable in the context of low-carbon economy. This paper briefly introduced the calculation method of farm product logistics efficiency in the context of low-carbon economy and analyzed the farm product logistics industry in Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2020. The results suggested that the input-output efficiency of the farm product logistics industry in Jiangsu was relatively high at the level of logistics technology in the context of low-carbon economy, but there was still room for improvement in the expansion scale; the economic level, industrial agglomeration, and industrial structure had a significant positive effect on the efficiency of farm product logistics, and the environmental constraints had a significant inhibitory effect on the efficiency of farm product logistics. Finally, several suggestions were put forward according to the analysis results.
农产品物流过程中用于保鲜的制冷设备会产生碳排放,因此需要分析影响物流效率的因素,使其在低碳经济背景下可持续发展。本文简要介绍了低碳经济背景下农产品物流效率的计算方法,并对江苏省 2011-2020 年农产品物流业进行了分析。结果表明,在低碳经济背景下,江苏农产品物流业的投入产出效率在物流技术水平上相对较高,但在规模扩张上仍有提升空间;经济水平、产业集聚度、产业结构对农产品物流效率有显著的正向影响,环境约束对农产品物流效率有显著的抑制作用。最后,根据分析结果提出了几点建议。
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引用次数: 0
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Strategic Planning for Energy and the Environment
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