数字化转型与经济增长的关系

T.K. Shuren, T. Pritvorova, E.A. Vechkinzova, A. Kizimbayeva
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摘要

目的:本文的主要目的是确定和评估数字化转型指标对哈萨克斯坦经济增长的影响。研究方法在本研究中,我们使用了基于 MS Excel 提供的 "数据分析 "软件包的多元相关性和回归分析统计方法。我们使用的数据来自哈萨克斯坦共和国战略规划和改革署国家统计局的官方网站 stat.gov.kz。研究结果对统计指标进行了初选,并确定了一组假定影响 2007-2020 年经济增长的因素(及相应指标)。有 14 个因素对总增加值有重大影响。在选择最重要因素的基础上,构建了一个回归方程,以显示对由此产生的增加值总额的影响程度。对得到的回归模型进行了评估。根据费雪标准,所发现的回归方程是显著的,根据学生标准,包括自由项在内的所有参数都是显著的,最大误差为 0.07。多重相关系数为 0.99。所得结果有助于规划地区和国家层面的 GDP 和 GVA。结论在增值总值指标体系中,使用互联网的组织数量、失业率和人口的计算机知识水平等指标占有重要地位。分析表明,这些指标之间关系密切。因此,我们发现这些指标之间的关系可以用一个线性方程来解释,平均准确率为 97%。同时,为了对情况进行更充分的分析,还有必要考虑到哈萨克斯坦共和国失业率变化与增加总值之间的反比关系。这些指标之间的负相关关系证实了失业率变化对经济造成的脆弱性和不稳定性。
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Digital transformation and the relationship with economic growth
bject: The main purpose of this article is to identify and assess the impact of digital transformation indicators on economic growth in Kazakhstan. Methods: For this study, we used methods of statistical multiple correlation and regression analysis based on the software package “Data Analysis” offered by MS Excel. We used data from the official website of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the RK at stat.gov.kz. Findings: The primary selection of statistical indicators was carried out and a group of factors (and corresponding indicators) was determined hypothetically influencing economic growth for the period 2007-2020. There are 14 factors that have a significant impact on gross value added. Based on the selection of the most significant factors, a regression equation is constructed that demonstrates the degree of influence on the resulting GVA. The obtained regression model was evaluated. The found regression equation is significant according to the Fisher criterion, all its parameters, including the free term, are significant according to the Student's criterion with a maximum error of 0.07. The multiple correlation coefficient is 0.99. The obtained results can be useful in planning GDP and GVA, both at the regional and national level. Conclusions: In the system of gross value added indicators, an important place is occupied by the indicators of the number of organizations using the Internet, the unemployment rate and computer literacy of the population. The analysis demonstrates a strong relationship between these indicators. As a result, we saw that the relationship between these indicators can be explained by a linear equation with an average accuracy of 97%. At the same time, for a more adequate analysis of the situation, it is also necessary to take into account the inverse relationship between changes in unemployment rates in the Republic of Kazakhstan and added gross value. The negative correlation between these indicators confirms the vulnerability and instability of the economy from changes in the unemployment rate.
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