意大利中部地震对受灾地区人口减少的影响

IF 3.5 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Regional Science and Urban Economics Pub Date : 2024-01-31 DOI:10.1016/j.regsciurbeco.2024.103985
Davide Dottori
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引用次数: 0

摘要

外围地区和人口结构脆弱的地区对地震等大型自然冲击的抵御能力可能较弱,但因果关系的证据仍然有限,尤其是在西欧。通过利用市级数据,本文研究了 2016 年影响意大利中部广大地区的大地震对常住人口的影响。该地区在地震发生前就已出现的人口减少现象在地震发生后明显加剧。为了确定地震的影响,我们采用了差异中的差异事件研究模型,从而检验对照组(由在地貌和预定城市化特征方面相似的城市组成)是否提供了事件发生前的可比人口模式。结果表明,地震大大加剧了人口的减少,其影响随着时间的推移而扩大,几乎相当于实际观察到的人口减少的五分之二。尽管在统计上对整个地区都有影响,但对遭受破坏最严重的城市影响更大。此外,还发现对老年人口比例的影响越来越大。总体影响的主要原因是国内净移民人数的减少。
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The effect of the earthquake in Central Italy on the depopulation of the affected territories

Peripheral and demographically fragile territories could be less resilient to the impact of large natural shocks such as earthquakes, but causal evidence is still limited, in particular for Western Europe. By leveraging data at municipal level, this paper studies the effects on the resident population of a large earthquake that affected a wide area in Central Italy in 2016. The demographic decline that the area was already experiencing before the event significantly worsened afterwards. In order to identify the earthquake’s impact a diff-in-diff event-study model is applied, thereby testing whether the control group (made up of similar municipalities in terms of geo-morphological and predetermined urbanization characteristics) provides a comparable population pattern before the event. The results show that the earthquake significantly exacerbated the population decrease, with the impact widening over time and corresponding to almost two fifths of the reduction actually observed. Although statistically significant for the whole area, the impact was more intense for the municipalities that suffered the most damage. An increasing effect on the share of elderly population was also detected. The overall impact was mostly driven by a worsening in net internal migration.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.30
自引率
9.70%
发文量
63
期刊介绍: Regional Science and Urban Economics facilitates and encourages high-quality scholarship on important issues in regional and urban economics. It publishes significant contributions that are theoretical or empirical, positive or normative. It solicits original papers with a spatial dimension that can be of interest to economists. Empirical papers studying causal mechanisms are expected to propose a convincing identification strategy.
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