Verifying the effectiveness of area division for land and population: The case of the Kofu urban area, Japan

Japan has used the Area Division Policy to control the disorderly spread of urban space for over 50 years. As a key component of area division, “urbanization promotion areas” are expected to promote land development, concentrate population within it, and prevent or slow down land and population expansion outside. To review the implementation of this system and provide a reference for future spatial optimization, quantitative methods to analyze the influence of urbanization promotion areas are important. This paper applies a regression-discontinuity design to study the impact of an urbanization promotion area on land development and population density in the Kofu urban area. The results indicate that the urbanization promotion area retains control over land and population, but development pressure remains on the urban periphery. To achieve orderly urban development, area division should be adjusted according to residential demands and coordinated with other recent land control policies.