On the onset and dispersal of a major MDR TB clone among HIV-negative patients, Tunisia.

Background: To carry out a whole genome sequencing (WGS)-based investigation on the emergence and spread of the largest multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR TB) outbreak that has been thriving among HIV-negative patients, Tunisia, since the early 2000s.

Methods: We performed phylogeographic analyses and molecular dating based on a WGS dataset representing 68 unique Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates, covering almost the entire MDR TB outbreak for the time period 2001-2016.

Results: The data indicate that the ancestor of the MDR TB outbreak emerged in the region of Bizerte, as early as 1974 (95% CI 1951-1985), from where it spread to other regions by 1992 (95% CI 1980-1996). Analysis of a minimum spanning tree based on core genome Multilocus Sequence Typing (cgMLST) uncovered the early spill-over of the fitness-compensated MDR TB strain from the prison into the general population. Indeed, cases with history of incarceration were found to be directly or indirectly linked to up to 22 new outbreak cases (32.35%) among the non-imprisoned population. By around 2008, the MDR TB outbreak strain had acquired additional resistance, leading to an XDR phenotype.

Conclusions: WGS allowed refining our understanding of the emergence and evolution of the largest MDR TB outbreak in Tunisia, whose causative strain has been circulating silently for almost 26 years before. Our study lends further support to the critical role of prisons-related cases in the early spread of the outbreak among the general population. The shift to an XDR phenotype of such an epidemic clone prompts an urgent need to undertake drastic control measures.