经区域调整的随机地震地动模型、相关变异性和认识不确定性

IF 1.6 4区 地球科学 Q3 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Journal of Seismology Pub Date : 2024-02-08 DOI:10.1007/s10950-024-10195-7
Jaleena Sunny, Marco de Angelis, Benjamin Edwards
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要 采用基于优化的校准技术,利用面积度量确定随机地震波形模拟方法的输入参数。校准算法更新了模型先验,特别是对区域地震学(震源、路径和地点)参数的估计,通常是利用波形数据或现有模型从各种来源开发的。在没有校准的情况下,这会导致对目标区域地动变化的高估,在某些情况下还会引入偏差。所提出的方法通过将物理约束参数模型与当地地动数据进行校准,可同时获得这些地震参数的中值、范围和分布(不确定性)的最佳估计值,以及特定目标区域的地动结果。我们利用欧洲强震(ESM)数据集记录的反应谱,将该方法应用于意大利这一中等地震频发地区。作为先验数据,我们利用在更广泛的欧洲范围内使用强震数据开发的独立地震学模型。校准可获得每个地震学参数(如但不限于质量因子、几何扩展和应力下降)的值,从而为局部调整的随机地动模拟开发出一套最佳参数。我们考虑了与校准过程相关的认识变异性和已知变异性。与初始先验值相比,我们能够将使用更新参数进行模拟的面积度量(不拟合)值减少高达 88%。这种校准和更新地震学模型的框架有助于实现稳健、透明的地动区域调整估计,并通过相关参数考虑认识上的不确定性。
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Regionally adjusted stochastic earthquake ground motion models, associated variabilities and epistemic uncertainties

An optimisation-based calibration technique, using the area metric, is applied to determine the input parameters of a stochastic earthquake-waveform simulation method. The calibration algorithm updates a model prior, specifically an estimate of a region’s seismological (source, path and site) parameters, typically developed using waveform data, or existing models, from a wide range of sources. In the absence of calibration, this can result in overestimates of a target region’s ground motion variability, and in some cases, introduce biases. The proposed method simultaneously attains optimum estimates of median, range and distribution (uncertainty) of these seismological parameters, and resultant ground motions, for a specific target region, through calibration of physically constrained parametric models to local ground motion data. We apply the method to Italy, a region of moderate seismicity, using response spectra recorded in the European Strong Motion (ESM) dataset. As a prior, we utilise independent seismological models developed using strong motion data across a wider European context. The calibration obtains values of each seismological parameter considered (such as, but not limited to, quality factor, geometrical spreading and stress drop), to develop a suite of optimal parameters for locally adjusted stochastic ground motion simulation. We consider both the epistemic and aleatory variability associated with the calibration process. We were able to reduce the area metric (misfit) value by up to 88% for the simulations using updated parameters, compared to the initial prior. This framework for the calibration and updating of seismological models can help achieve robust and transparent regionally adjusted estimates of ground motion, and to consider epistemic uncertainty through correlated parameters.

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来源期刊
Journal of Seismology
Journal of Seismology 地学-地球化学与地球物理
CiteScore
3.30
自引率
6.20%
发文量
67
审稿时长
3 months
期刊介绍: Journal of Seismology is an international journal specialising in all observational and theoretical aspects related to earthquake occurrence. Research topics may cover: seismotectonics, seismicity, historical seismicity, seismic source physics, strong ground motion studies, seismic hazard or risk, engineering seismology, physics of fault systems, triggered and induced seismicity, mining seismology, volcano seismology, earthquake prediction, structural investigations ranging from local to regional and global studies with a particular focus on passive experiments.
期刊最新文献
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