预测大乌斯秋格附近苏霍纳河的冰塞高峰水位

IF 16.4 1区化学 Q1 CHEMISTRY, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Accounts of Chemical Research Pub Date : 2024-02-15 DOI:10.3103/s1068373923120063

M. V. Georgievskii, A. V. Babkin, N. I. Goroshkova, A. V. Strizhenok, D. A. Semenova

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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要本文介绍了对大乌斯秋格附近苏霍纳河冰塞峰值水位时间序列的分析、建模和预测，其中考虑到了通过多元回归技术选择的预测因子。提出了一种基于多元回归的方法，将 V.A. Buzin 开发的方法建模结果作为单独的预测因子。这种方法提高了预测技能和预测结果。观测值和预测值之间存在明显的相关性。

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Forecasting Ice Jam Peak Levels of the Sukhona River near Veliky Ustyug

Abstract

The paper presents the analysis, modeling, and forecasting of the time series of the ice jam peak water level of the Sukhona River near Veliky Ustyug, taking into account the predictors selected by the multiple regression technique. A methodology based on the multiple regression that uses the results of modeling by the method developed by V.A. Buzin as a separate predictor is proposed. This approach has improved the forecast skill and forecast results. The observed and predicted values are significantly correlated.

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来源期刊

Accounts of Chemical Research 化学-化学综合

CiteScore

31.40

自引率

1.10%

发文量

312

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Accounts of Chemical Research presents short, concise and critical articles offering easy-to-read overviews of basic research and applications in all areas of chemistry and biochemistry. These short reviews focus on research from the author’s own laboratory and are designed to teach the reader about a research project. In addition, Accounts of Chemical Research publishes commentaries that give an informed opinion on a current research problem. Special Issues online are devoted to a single topic of unusual activity and significance. Accounts of Chemical Research replaces the traditional article abstract with an article "Conspectus." These entries synopsize the research affording the reader a closer look at the content and significance of an article. Through this provision of a more detailed description of the article contents, the Conspectus enhances the article's discoverability by search engines and the exposure for the research.