Extended Streamflow Prediction for Russian Rivers

Abstract

The possibility of extended predictions of the Russian river streamflow is considered based on dynamic approach, in which the HBV-96 water-balance runoff formation model is used jointly with the extended ensemble meteorological forecast obtained with the INM5 model. Twelve river basins located in different climatic and physiographic zones of Russia were selected for analysis. The average annual and average monthly discharges, as well as the annual maximum streamflow, were predicted with a lead time of 1–5 years. The test on the reanalysis data for the period from 1980 to 2020 has shown that the applied dynamic approach makes it possible to adequately assess possible interannual fluctuations in the streamflow and its intraannual distribution. The ensemble of forecasts of the annual and maximum streamflow for the period 2023–2026 obtained using the HBV-96 and INM5 models is consistent with the data on the water regime of the analyzed rivers.