确定网络安全投资的优先次序:网络攻击成本决定因素事件研究的经验证据

Daniel Celeny, Loïc Maréchal, Evgueni Rousselot, Alain Mermoud, Mathias Humbert
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摘要

随着网络事件日益频繁和严重,了解其对经济的影响至关重要。在此背景下,上市公司对网络事件的反应值得研究,因为它们(i)是估算其他组织所承担的成本的良好替代品,(ii)在经济中处于关键地位,(iii)其财务信息是公开的。我们从新闻通稿中提取上市公司的网络事件日期和特征。我们对 2012-2022 年期间的事件进行了研究,使用了事件前后三天的窗口和标准基准。我们发现,网络事件前后的异常回报幅度与之前使用新闻电讯或其他数据识别网络事件的研究结果相当。相反,当我们对标准误差进行调整,并考虑到事件引起的方差和残差交叉相关性时,我们发现之前声称的异常回报的重要性消失了。鉴于上述结果,我们进行了一次规格竞赛,检验网络事件类型、目标公司行业、时期及其交互作用的边际效应。数据泄露是危害最大的事件类型,过去十年的平均损失为-1.3%或(19 亿美元)。医疗行业对网络事件最为敏感,平均损失为-5.21%(或-12 亿美元),如果是数据泄露,损失会更大。
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Prioritizing Investments in Cybersecurity: Empirical Evidence from an Event Study on the Determinants of Cyberattack Costs
Along with the increasing frequency and severity of cyber incidents, understanding their economic implications is paramount. In this context, listed firms' reactions to cyber incidents are compelling to study since they (i) are a good proxy to estimate the costs borne by other organizations, (ii) have a critical position in the economy, and (iii) have their financial information publicly available. We extract listed firms' cyber incident dates and characteristics from newswire headlines. We use an event study over 2012--2022, using a three-day window around events and standard benchmarks. We find that the magnitude of abnormal returns around cyber incidents is on par with previous studies using newswire or alternative data to identify cyber incidents. Conversely, as we adjust the standard errors accounting for event-induced variance and residual cross-correlation, we find that the previously claimed significance of abnormal returns vanishes. Given these results, we run a horse race of specifications, in which we test for the marginal effects of type of cyber incidents, target firm sector, periods, and their interactions. Data breaches are the most detrimental incident type with an average loss of -1.3\% or (USD -1.9 billion) over the last decade. The health sector is the most sensitive to cyber incidents, with an average loss of -5.21\% (or USD -1.2 billion), and even more so when these are data breaches. Instead, we cannot show any time-varying effect of cyber incidents or a specific effect of the type of news as had previously been advocated.
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