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Information Asymmetry Index: The View of Market Analysts 信息不对称指数:市场分析师的观点
Pub Date : 2024-09-10 DOI: arxiv-2409.06272
Roberto Frota DecourtUNISINOS, Heitor AlmeidaUIUC, Philippe ProtinUGA INP IAE, Matheus R. C. GonzalezUNISINOS
The purpose of the research was to build an index of informational asymmetrywith market and firm proxies that reflect the analysts' perception of the levelof informational asymmetry of companies. The proposed method consists of theconstruction of an algorithm based on the Elo rating and captures theperception of the analyst that choose, between two firms, the one they considerto have better information. After we have the informational asymmetry index, werun a regression model with our rating as dependent variable and proxies usedby the literature as the independent variable to have a model that can be usedfor other researches that need to measure the level of informational asymmetryof a company. Our model presented a good fit between our index and the proxiesused to measure informational asymmetry and we find four significant variables:coverage, volatility, Tobin q, and size.
研究的目的是建立一个信息不对称指数,用市场和公司的代理变量来反映分析师对公司信息不对称程度的看法。所提出的方法包括构建一个基于 Elo 评级的算法,并捕捉分析师在两家公司之间选择他们认为信息更佳的公司的看法。在得出信息不对称指数后,我们以我们的评级为因变量,以文献中使用的代理变量为自变量,建立了一个回归模型,该模型可用于其他需要衡量公司信息不对称程度的研究。我们的模型很好地拟合了我们的指数和用来衡量信息不对称程度的代用指标,我们发现了四个重要变量:覆盖率、波动率、托宾 q 和规模。
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引用次数: 0
Market Failures of Carbon Trading 碳交易的市场失灵
Pub Date : 2024-08-12 DOI: arxiv-2408.06497
Nicola Borri, Yukun Liu, Aleh Tsyvinski, Xi Wu
In economic theory, a cap-and-trade system is a market-based system mechanismthat internalizes the environmental impact of economic activity and reducespollution with minimal costs. Given that carbon trading is a financial market,we evaluate its efficiency using finance and asset-pricing tools. Our analysisof the universe of transactions in the European Union Emission Trading Systemin 2005-2020 demonstrates that this prominent cap-and-trade system for carbonemissions is dramatically inefficient because of a number of unintendedconsequences that significantly undermine its purposes. First, about 40% offirms never trade in a given year. Second, many firms only trade in thesurrendering months, when compliance is immediate. We also show that these arethe months where the price of emission allowances is predictably high. Thissurrendering trading pattern alone leads to a total estimated loss of aboutEuro 5 billion for the regulated firms, or about 2% of the traded volume of theregulated firms in the sample period. Third, a number of operators engage inspeculative trading and profit by exploiting the market with privateinformation. We estimate that these operators in total make about Euro 8billion, or about 3.5% of the traded volume of the regulated firms in thesample period.
在经济学理论中,限额交易制度是一种基于市场的制度机制,它将经济活动对环境的影响内部化,并以最小的成本减少污染。鉴于碳交易是一个金融市场,我们使用金融和资产定价工具来评估其效率。我们对 2005-2020 年欧盟碳排放交易体系中的所有交易进行了分析,结果表明,这个著名的碳排放总量控制与交易体系效率极低,因为它产生了一系列意想不到的后果,极大地损害了其目的。首先,约 40% 的企业在特定年份从未进行过交易。其次,许多企业只在交税月份进行交易,而在这些月份,企业必须立即履约。我们还发现,在这些月份,排放配额的价格可以预测会很高。仅这种退保交易模式就给受监管企业造成了约 50 亿欧元的损失,约占样本期内受监管企业交易量的 2%。第三,一些经营者从事投机交易,通过利用市场私人信息获利。我们估计,这些经营者总共获利约 80 亿欧元,约占样本期内受监管公司交易量的 3.5%。
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引用次数: 0
Hydrogen Development in China and the EU: A Recommended Tian Ji's Horse Racing Strategy 中国和欧盟的氢能发展:推荐田忌赛马战略
Pub Date : 2024-08-01 DOI: arxiv-2408.08874
Hong Xu
The global momentum towards establishing sustainable energy systems hasbecome increasingly prominent. Hydrogen, as a remarkable carbon-free andrenewable energy carrier, has been endorsed by 39 countries at COP28 in theUAE, recognizing its essential role in global energy transition and industrydecarbonization. Both the European Union (EU) and China are at the forefront ofthis shift, developing hydrogen strategies to enhance regional energy securityand racing for carbon neutrality commitments by 2050 for the EU and 2060 forChina. The wide applications of hydrogen across hard-to-abate sectors and theflexibility of decentralized production and storage offer customized solutionsutilizing local resources in a self-paced manner. To unveil the trajectory ofhydrogen development in China and the EU, this paper proposes a comparativeanalysis framework employing key factors to investigate hydrogen developmentsin both economic powerhouses. Beyond country-wise statistics, it dives intorepresentative hydrogen economic areas in China (Inner Mongolia, CapitalEconomic Circle, Yangtze River Delta) and Europe (Delta Rhine Corridor) forunderstanding supply and demand, industrial synergy, and policy incentives forlocal hydrogen industries. The derived implications offer stakeholders anevolving hydrogen landscape across the Eurasian continent and insights forfuture policy developments facilitating the global green transition.
全球建立可持续能源系统的势头日益突出。在阿联酋举行的 COP28 会议上,氢作为一种显著的无碳和可再生能源载体,已得到 39 个国家的认可,承认其在全球能源转型和工业去碳化中的重要作用。欧盟(EU)和中国都走在了这一转变的前列,制定了氢能战略,以加强地区能源安全,并努力实现到 2050 年欧盟和 2060 年中国实现碳中和的承诺。氢在难以消减的行业中的广泛应用,以及分散式生产和储存的灵活性,提供了以自定步调的方式利用当地资源的定制解决方案。为了揭示中国和欧盟氢能发展的轨迹,本文提出了一个比较分析框架,利用关键因素来研究这两个经济强国的氢能发展。除了国家层面的统计数据,本文还深入研究了中国(内蒙古、首都经济圈、长江三角洲)和欧洲(莱茵河三角洲走廊)具有代表性的氢能经济区,以了解当地氢能产业的供需情况、产业协同效应和政策激励。由此产生的影响为利益相关者提供了整个欧亚大陆不断变化的氢景观,并为促进全球绿色转型的未来政策发展提供了启示。
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引用次数: 0
Applying the Nash Bargaining Solution for a Reasonable Royalty II 合理版税的纳什议价解决方案 II
Pub Date : 2024-07-19 DOI: arxiv-2407.14642
David M. Kryskowski, David Kryskowski
This paper expands on the concepts presented in Applying the Nash BargainingSolution for a Reasonable Royalty ( arXiv:2005.10158 ). The goal is to refinethe process for determining a reasonable royalty using statistical methods incases where there is risk and uncertainty regarding each party's disagreementpayoffs (opportunity costs) in the Nash Bargaining Solution (NBS). This paperuses a Bayes Cost approach to analyze Case 1, Case 2, and the Original Nashmodel from the authors' previous work. By addressing risk and uncertainty inthe NBS, the NBS emerges as a more reliable method for estimating a reasonableroyalty, aligning with the criteria outlined in Georgia Pacific factor fifteen.
本文是对《应用纳什议价解计算合理特许权使用费》(arXiv:2005.10158)中提出的概念的扩展。本文的目的是在纳什议价方案(NBS)中各方的分歧报酬(机会成本)存在风险和不确定性的情况下,利用统计方法完善确定合理特许权使用费的过程。本文采用贝叶斯成本法分析了案例 1、案例 2 和作者以前工作中的原始纳什模型。通过解决 NBS 中的风险和不确定性问题,NBS 成为估算合理报酬的一种更可靠的方法,符合乔治亚太平洋公司因素 15 中列出的标准。
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引用次数: 0
Auction theory and demography 拍卖理论和人口学
Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: arxiv-2407.06248
O. A. Malafeyev, I. E. Khomenko
In economics, there are many ways to describe the interaction between a"seller" and a "buyer". The most common one, with which we interact almostevery day, is selling for a fixed price. This option is perfect for selling amass product, when we have a number of sellers and many buyers, and the pricefor the product varies depending on the conditions of the relationship betweensupply and demand. Another situation meets us already in markets, where aproduct can be either mass-produced or more unique, so this option is alreadycloser to the object of our discussion.However, a one-on-one transaction is amuch more unstable option, which is why it is also more difficult to model,since it is determined not so much by algorithms as by psychology and thedifference in the bargaining ability of the two parties. An even closer exampleof an auction is price discrimination, when the price for the buyer isdetermined not only by supply and demand, but also by which group the buyerbelongs to. But in this case, the product is not unique, and the final selleris the only one. Thus, we have identified the main auction criteria and theirfeatures of the "game".
在经济学中,有许多方法可以描述 "卖方 "和 "买方 "之间的互动。最常见的是固定价格销售,我们几乎每天都在与它打交道。当我们有许多卖家和许多买家,产品的价格根据供求关系的条件而变化时,这种方式非常适合销售大量产品。然而,一对一交易是一种更不稳定的选择,这也是它更难建模的原因,因为它与其说是由算法决定的,不如说是由心理和双方讨价还价能力的差异决定的。更接近拍卖的一个例子是价格歧视,即买方的价格不仅由供求关系决定,还由买方所属的群体决定。但在这种情况下,产品并不是唯一的,最终的卖家也是唯一的。因此,我们确定了 "博弈 "的主要拍卖标准及其特征。
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引用次数: 0
Fiduciary Duty in the Municipal Bonds Market 市政债券市场的受托责任
Pub Date : 2024-06-21 DOI: arxiv-2406.15197
Baridhi Malakar
I examine whether the imposition of fiduciary duty on municipal advisorsaffects bond yields and advising fees. Using a difference-in-differencesanalysis, I show that bond yields reduce by $sim$9% after the imposition ofthe SEC Municipal Advisor Rule due to lower underwriting spreads. Largermunicipalities are more likely to recruit advisors after the rule is effectiveand experience a greater reduction in yields. However, smaller issuers do notexperience a reduction in offering yields after the SEC Rule. Instead, theirborrowing cost increases if their primary advisor exits the market. Using novelhand-collected data, I find that the average advising fees paid by issuers doesnot increase after the regulation. Overall, my results suggest that whilefiduciary duty may mitigate the principal-agent problem between some issuersand advisors, there is heterogeneity among issuers.
我研究了对市政顾问施加信托责任是否会影响债券收益率和顾问费。通过差异分析,我发现在美国证券交易委员会市政顾问规则实施后,由于承销利差降低,债券收益率降低了 9% 。规则生效后,大型市政当局更有可能招募顾问,收益率的下降幅度也更大。然而,规模较小的发行人在证监会规则生效后并没有经历发行收益率的下降。相反,如果他们的主要顾问退出市场,他们的借贷成本就会增加。通过使用新颖的手工收集数据,我发现发行人支付的平均顾问费在法规实施后并没有增加。总体而言,我的研究结果表明,虽然信托责任可能会缓解一些发行人与顾问之间的委托代理问题,但发行人之间存在异质性。
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引用次数: 0
Essays on Responsible and Sustainable Finance 关于负责任和可持续金融的论文
Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: arxiv-2406.12995
Baridhi Malakar
The dissertation consists of three essays on responsible and sustainablefinance. I show that local communities should be seen as stakeholders todecisions made by corporations. In the first essay, I examine whether theimposition of fiduciary duty on municipal advisors affects bond yields andadvising fees. Using a difference-in-differences analysis, I show that bondyields reduce by 9% after the imposition of the SEC Municipal Advisor Rule. Inthe second essay, we analyze the impact of USD 40 billion of corporatesubsidies given by U.S. local governments on their borrowing costs. We findthat winning counties experience a 15 bps increase in bond yield spread ascompared to the losing counties. In the third essay, we provide new evidencethat the bankruptcy filing of a locally-headquartered and publicly-listedmanufacturing firm imposes externalities on the local governments. Compared tomatched counties with similar economic trends, municipal bond yields foraffected counties increase by 10 bps within a year of the firm filing forbankruptcy. The final essay examines whether managers walk the talk on theenvironmental and social discussion. We train a deep-learning model on variouscorporate sustainability frameworks to construct a comprehensive Environmentaland Social (E and S) dictionary. Using this dictionary, we find that thediscussion of environmental topics in the earnings conference calls of U.S.public firms is associated with higher pollution abatement and more futuregreen patents.
论文包括三篇关于负责任和可持续金融的论文。我表明,当地社区应被视为企业决策的利益相关者。在第一篇论文中,我研究了对市政顾问施加信托责任是否会影响债券收益率和顾问费。通过差异分析,我发现在美国证券交易委员会市政顾问规则实施后,债券收益率降低了 9%。在第二篇论文中,我们分析了美国地方政府提供的 400 亿美元企业补贴对其借贷成本的影响。我们发现,与失败县相比,获胜县的债券收益率利差增加了 15 个基点。在第三篇论文中,我们提供了新的证据,证明一家总部位于当地的上市制造企业的破产申请会给当地政府带来外部效应。与经济趋势相似的匹配县相比,受影响县的市政债券收益率在该公司申请破产一年内上升了 10 个基点。最后一篇文章探讨了管理者在环境和社会讨论中是否言行一致。我们在各种企业可持续发展框架上训练了一个深度学习模型,从而构建了一个全面的环境和社会(E and S)字典。利用该词典,我们发现在美国上市公司的收益电话会议中讨论环境话题与更高的污染减排和更多的未来绿色专利相关。
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引用次数: 0
A Survey of Large Language Models for Financial Applications: Progress, Prospects and Challenges 金融应用大型语言模型调查:进展、前景与挑战
Pub Date : 2024-06-15 DOI: arxiv-2406.11903
Yuqi Nie, Yaxuan Kong, Xiaowen Dong, John M. Mulvey, H. Vincent Poor, Qingsong Wen, Stefan Zohren
Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have unlocked novelopportunities for machine learning applications in the financial domain. Thesemodels have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in understanding context,processing vast amounts of data, and generating human-preferred contents. Inthis survey, we explore the application of LLMs on various financial tasks,focusing on their potential to transform traditional practices and driveinnovation. We provide a discussion of the progress and advantages of LLMs infinancial contexts, analyzing their advanced technologies as well asprospective capabilities in contextual understanding, transfer learningflexibility, complex emotion detection, etc. We then highlight this survey forcategorizing the existing literature into key application areas, includinglinguistic tasks, sentiment analysis, financial time series, financialreasoning, agent-based modeling, and other applications. For each applicationarea, we delve into specific methodologies, such as textual analysis,knowledge-based analysis, forecasting, data augmentation, planning, decisionsupport, and simulations. Furthermore, a comprehensive collection of datasets,model assets, and useful codes associated with mainstream applications arepresented as resources for the researchers and practitioners. Finally, weoutline the challenges and opportunities for future research, particularlyemphasizing a number of distinctive aspects in this field. We hope our work canhelp facilitate the adoption and further development of LLMs in the financialsector.
大型语言模型(LLM)的最新进展为金融领域的机器学习应用带来了新的发展机遇。这些模型在理解上下文、处理海量数据和生成人类偏好的内容方面表现出了非凡的能力。在这份调查报告中,我们探讨了 LLM 在各种金融任务中的应用,重点关注它们在改变传统做法和推动创新方面的潜力。我们讨论了 LLM 在金融领域的进展和优势,分析了它们在上下文理解、迁移学习灵活性、复杂情绪检测等方面的先进技术和前瞻能力。然后,我们重点介绍了这份调查报告,并将现有文献归类为关键应用领域,包括语言任务、情感分析、金融时间序列、金融推理、基于代理的建模以及其他应用。针对每个应用领域,我们深入探讨了具体方法,如文本分析、基于知识的分析、预测、数据增强、规划、决策支持和模拟。此外,我们还全面收集了与主流应用相关的数据集、模型资产和有用代码,作为研究人员和从业人员的资源。最后,我们概述了未来研究的挑战和机遇,特别强调了该领域的一些独特方面。我们希望我们的工作能有助于促进 LLM 在金融领域的应用和进一步发展。
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引用次数: 0
Visualization of Board of Director Connections for Analysis in Socially Responsible Investing 用于社会责任投资分析的董事会联系可视化技术
Pub Date : 2024-05-30 DOI: arxiv-2405.20522
Alice Da Fonseca, Peter Lake, Ariana Barrenechea
This project is a collaboration between industry and academia to delve intoFinance Social Networks, specifically the Board of Directors of publiccompanies. Knowing the connections between Directors and Executives indifferent companies can generate powerful stories and meaningful insights oninvestments. A proof of concept in the form of a Data Visualization toolreveals its strength in investigating corporate governance and sustainability,as well as in the partnership between industry and academic institutions.
该项目是一项产学合作项目,旨在深入研究金融社交网络,特别是上市公司董事会。了解冷漠公司的董事和高管之间的联系,可以产生有力的故事和有意义的投资见解。以数据可视化工具的形式进行的概念验证显示了其在调查公司治理和可持续性方面的优势,以及工业界和学术机构之间的合作关系。
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引用次数: 0
DeTEcT: Dynamic and Probabilistic Parameters Extension DeTEcT:动态和概率参数扩展
Pub Date : 2024-05-26 DOI: arxiv-2405.16688
Rem Sadykhov, Geoffrey Goodell, Philip Treleaven
This paper presents a theoretical extension of the DeTEcT framework proposedby Sadykhov et al., DeTEcT, where a formal analysis framework was introducedfor modelling wealth distribution in token economies. DeTEcT is a framework foranalysing economic activity, simulating macroeconomic scenarios, andalgorithmically setting policies in token economies. This paper proposes fourways of parametrizing the framework, where dynamic vs static parametrization isconsidered along with the probabilistic vs non-probabilistic. Using theseparametrization techniques, we demonstrate that by adding restrictions to theframework it is possible to derive the existing wealth distribution models fromDeTEcT. In addition to exploring parametrization techniques, this paper studieshow money supply in DeTEcT framework can be transformed to become dynamic, andhow this change will affect the dynamics of wealth distribution. The motivationfor studying dynamic money supply is that it enables DeTEcT to be applied tomodelling token economies without maximum supply (i.e., Ethereum), and it addsconstraints to the framework in the form of symmetries.
本文是对 Sadykhov 等人提出的 DeTEcT 框架的理论扩展,DeTEcT 引入了一个正式的分析框架来模拟代币经济中的财富分配。DeTEcT 是一个用于分析代币经济中的经济活动、模拟宏观经济情景和通过算法制定政策的框架。本文提出了对该框架进行参数化的四种方法,其中包括动态参数化与静态参数化,以及概率参数化与非概率参数化。利用这些参数化技术,我们证明了通过对框架添加限制条件,可以从 DeTEcT 中推导出现有的财富分配模型。除了探索参数化技术之外,本文还研究了如何将 DeTEcT 框架中的货币供应转化为动态货币供应,以及这种变化将如何影响财富分配的动态性。研究动态货币供应量的动机是,它使 DeTEcT 能够应用于模拟没有最大供应量的代币经济(即以太坊),并以对称的形式为框架增加了约束。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
arXiv - QuantFin - General Finance
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