A National Innovation System Concept-Based Analysis of Autonomous Vehicles’ Potential in Reaching Zero-Emission Fleets

Change management for technology adoption in the transportation sector is often used to address long-term challenges characterized by complexity, uncertainty, and ambiguity. Especially when technology is still evolving, an analysis of these challenges can help explore different alternative future pathways. Therefore, the analysis of development trajectories, correlations between key system variables, and the rate of change within the entire road transportation system can guide action toward sustainability. By adopting the National Innovation System concept, we evaluated the possibilities of an autonomous vehicle option to reach a zero-emission fleet. A case-specific analysis was conducted to evaluate the industry capacities, performance of R&D organizations, main objectives of future market-oriented reforms in the power sector, policy implications, and other aspects to gain insightful perspectives. Environmental insights for transportation sector scenarios in 2021, 2030, and 2050 were explored and analyzed using the COPERT v5.5.1 software program. This study offers a new perspective for road transport decarbonization research and adds new insights to the obtained correlation between the NIS dynamics and achievement of sustainability goals. In 2050, it is expected to achieve 100% carbon neutrality in the PC segment and ~85% in the HDV segment. Finally, four broad conclusions emerged from this research as a consequence of the analysis.