天然气问题:液化天然气与印度对清洁能源的追求

Gases Pub Date : 2024-02-03 DOI:10.3390/gases4010001
Subhadip Ghosh, Rajarshi Majumder, Bidisha Chatterjee
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摘要

印度是世界上人口最多的国家,也是世界上第三大温室气体排放国。尽管印度使用多种能源,但其主要能源仍严重依赖煤炭。由于印度的能源需求迅速增长,这给实现减排目标带来了挑战。近年来,印度大幅增加了对太阳能和氢能等可再生能源的投资。尽管这些举措值得称赞,但仅靠这些举措无法满足印度不断扩大的能源需求。短期内,印度必须依赖国内和进口化石燃料,而天然气是最环保的选择。在此背景下,本文尝试使用单变量和多变量预测方法,对 2050 年前印度的能源消耗、天然气产量和消费量进行预测。在进行多变量预测时,我们假定 GDP 增长有两种可能:"一切照旧 "情景和高增长情景。我们的每项预测都表明,与预期需求相比,天然气的预计产量明显不足,这意味着我们的结果是稳健的。根据我们的模型预测,印度近 30-50% 的天然气消费将通过进口来满足,主要是液化天然气。基于这些发现,本文建议印度政府的政策应强调提高国内天然气产量、进口液化天然气以及扩大可再生能源资源。
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Natural Gas Matters: LNG and India’s Quest for Clean Energy
India, the world’s most populous country, is the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Despite employing several energy sources, it still relies heavily on coal, its primary energy source. Given India’s swiftly rising energy demand, this challenges meeting emission reduction targets. In recent years, India has significantly increased investments in renewables like solar and hydrogen. While commendable, these initiatives alone cannot meet the country’s expanding energy demands. In the short term, India must rely on both domestic and imported fossil fuels, with natural gas being the most environmentally friendly option. In this context, this paper attempts to forecast energy consumption, natural gas production, and consumption in India until 2050, using both univariate and multivariate forecasting methods. For multivariate forecasting, we have assumed two alternative possibilities for GDP growth: the business-as-usual and the high-growth scenarios. Each of our forecasts indicates a notable shortfall in the projected production of natural gas compared to the expected demand, implying our results are robust. Our model predicts that nearly 30–50 percent of India’s natural gas consumption will be met by imports, mainly in the form of LNG. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that Indian government policies emphasize increasing domestic natural gas production, importing LNG, and expanding renewable energy resources.
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