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Experimental Optimization of Natural Gas Injection Timing in a Dual-Fuel Marine Engine to Minimize GHG Emissions 通过实验优化双燃料船用发动机的天然气喷射时机,最大限度减少温室气体排放
Pub Date : 2024-07-16 DOI: 10.3390/gases4030011
Luigi De Simio, L. Marchitto, S. Iannaccone, Vincenzo Pennino, Nunzio Altieri
Phased injection of natural gas into internal combustion marine engines is a promising solution for optimizing performance and reducing harmful emissions, particularly unburned methane, a potent greenhouse gas. This innovative practice distinguishes itself from continuous injection because it allows for more precise control of the combustion process with only a slight increase in system complexity. By synchronizing the injection of natural gas with the intake and exhaust valve opening and closing times while also considering the gas path in the manifolds, methane release into the atmosphere is significantly reduced, making a substantial contribution to efforts to address climate change. Moreover, phased injection improves the efficiency of marine engines, resulting in reduced overall fuel consumption, lower fuel costs, and increased ship autonomy. This technology was tested on a single-cylinder, large-bore, four-stroke research engine designed for marine applications, operating in dual-fuel mode with diesel and natural gas. Performance was compared with that of the conventional continuous feeding method. Evaluation of the effect on equivalent CO2 emissions indicates a potential reduction of up to approximately 20%. This reduction effectively brings greenhouse gas emissions below those of the diesel baseline case, especially when injection control is combined with supercharging control to optimize the air–fuel ratio. In this context, the boost pressure in DF was reduced from 3 to 1.5 bar compared with the FD case.
在船用内燃机中分阶段注入天然气是一种很有前途的解决方案,可优化性能并减少有害气体排放,尤其是未燃烧的甲烷这种强效温室气体。这种创新做法有别于连续喷射,因为它可以更精确地控制燃烧过程,而系统复杂性仅略有增加。通过使天然气的喷射与进气门和排气门的开关时间同步,同时考虑到歧管中的气体路径,甲烷释放到大气中的量大大减少,为应对气候变化做出了重大贡献。此外,分阶段喷射技术还能提高船用发动机的效率,从而降低总体油耗,降低燃料成本,提高船舶自主性。该技术在一台专为船舶应用设计的单缸、大口径、四冲程研究发动机上进行了测试,该发动机在柴油和天然气双燃料模式下运行。将其性能与传统的连续供油方法进行了比较。对等效 CO2 排放量效果的评估表明,可能会减少约 20%。特别是在喷射控制与增压控制相结合以优化空燃比的情况下,这种减少可有效地使温室气体排放量低于柴油基准情况。在这种情况下,与 FD 案例相比,DF 的增压压力从 3 巴降至 1.5 巴。
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引用次数: 0
Real Driving Emissions—Event Detection for Efficient Emission Calibration 真实驾驶排放--事件检测实现高效排放校准
Pub Date : 2024-07-12 DOI: 10.3390/gases4030010
Sascha Krysmon, Johannes Claßen, M. Düzgün, Stefan Pischinger
The systematic analysis of measurement data allows a large amount of information to be obtained from existing measurements in a short period of time. Especially in vehicle development, many measurements are performed, and large amounts of data are collected in the process of emission calibration. With the introduction of Real Driving Emissions Tests, the need for targeted analysis for efficient and robust calibration of a vehicle has further increased. With countless possible test scenarios, test-by-test analysis is no longer possible with the current state-of-the-art in calibration, as it takes too much time and can disregard relevant data when analyzed manually. In this article, therefore, a methodology is presented that automatically analyzes exhaust measurement data in the context of emission calibration and identifies emission-related critical sequences. For this purpose, moving analyzing windows are used, which evaluate the exhaust emissions in each sample of the measurement. The detected events are stored in tabular form and are particularly suitable for condensing the collected measurement data to a required amount for optimization purposes. It is shown how different window settings influence the amount and duration of detected events. With the example used, a total amount of 454 events can be identified from 60 measurements, reducing 184,623 s of measurements to a relevant amount of 12,823 s.
通过对测量数据进行系统分析,可以在短时间内从现有测量数据中获取大量信息。特别是在车辆开发过程中,要进行多次测量,并在排放标定过程中收集大量数据。随着实际驾驶排放测试的引入,为高效、稳健地标定车辆而进行针对性分析的需求进一步增加。由于可能的测试场景不计其数,逐一测试分析已不再是目前最先进的标定方法,因为它耗时过长,而且人工分析时可能会忽略相关数据。因此,本文介绍了一种在排放标定中自动分析尾气测量数据并识别与排放相关的关键序列的方法。为此,使用了移动分析窗口,对每个测量样本中的废气排放进行评估。检测到的事件以表格形式存储,特别适合将收集到的测量数据浓缩到所需数量,以达到优化目的。图中显示了不同的窗口设置如何影响检测事件的数量和持续时间。在所使用的示例中,可以从 60 次测量中识别出总共 454 个事件,将 184 623 秒的测量时间减少到 12 823 秒。
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引用次数: 0
Carbon Market for Climate Projects in Russia: An Overview of Nature-Based and Technological Carbon Offsets 俄罗斯气候项目碳市场:基于自然和技术的碳抵消概述
Pub Date : 2024-07-08 DOI: 10.3390/gases4030009
T. Nevzorova
Climate projects can become one of the key tools for decarbonization in Russia. They have powerful potential in terms of solving the problems of reducing emissions and increasing the absorption of greenhouse gases, as well as monetization potential for businesses. Despite the geopolitical crisis and sanctions imposed on Russia, certain opportunities for implementing climate projects have remained accessible. This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current status, including the regulations and approved methodologies, prospects, and challenges for climate projects in the carbon market in Russia. It also offers an overview of international carbon market mechanisms and analyses the advantages and disadvantages of the nature-based and technological solutions of climate projects for carbon sequestration. This, in turn, can facilitate the realization of future strategies for realizing the bigger potential of Russian climate projects in the domestic and international carbon markets. This research also provides up-to-date data on the current situation of the carbon market in Russia.
气候项目可以成为俄罗斯去碳化的重要工具之一。它们在解决减少排放和增加吸收温室气体问题方面具有强大的潜力,同时也具有为企业实现货币化的潜力。尽管俄罗斯面临地缘政治危机和制裁,但仍有一些实施气候项目的机会。本研究旨在全面分析俄罗斯碳市场气候项目的现状,包括法规和批准的方法、前景和挑战。本研究还概述了国际碳市场机制,分析了气候项目中基于自然和技术的碳封存解决方案的优缺点。这反过来又可以促进未来战略的实现,以发挥俄罗斯气候项目在国内和国际碳市场上的更大潜力。这项研究还提供了俄罗斯碳市场现状的最新数据。
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引用次数: 0
Carbon Dioxide Capture under Low-Pressure Low-Temperature Conditions Using Shaped Recycled Fly Ash Particles 利用成型回收粉煤灰颗粒在低压低温条件下捕获二氧化碳
Pub Date : 2024-05-23 DOI: 10.3390/gases4020007
Sherif Fakher, A. Khlaifat, Abdullah Hassanien
Carbon-capture technologies are extremely abundant, yet they have not been applied extensively worldwide due to their high cost and technological complexities. This research studies the ability of polymerized fly ash to capture carbon dioxide (CO2) under low-pressure and low-temperature conditions via physical adsorption. The research also studies the ability to desorb CO2 due to the high demand for CO2 in different industries. The adsorption–desorption hysteresis was measured using infrared-sensor detection apparatus. The impact of the CO2 injection rate for adsorption, helium injection rate for desorption, temperature, and fly ash contact surface area on the adsorption–desorption hysteresis was investigated. The results showed that change in the CO2 injection rate had little impact on the variation in the adsorption capacity; for all CO2 rate experiments, the adsorption reached more than 90% of the total available adsorption sites. Increasing the temperature caused the polymerized fly ash to expand, thus increasing the available adsorption sites, thus increasing the overall adsorption volume. At low helium rates, desorption was extremely lengthy which resulted in a delayed hysteresis response. This is not favorable since it has a negative impact on the adsorption–desorption cyclic rate. Based on the results, the polymerized fly ash proved to have a high CO2 capture capability and thus can be applied for carbon-capture applications.
碳捕集技术极为丰富,但由于其成本高、技术复杂,尚未在全球广泛应用。本研究探讨了聚合粉煤灰在低压低温条件下通过物理吸附捕获二氧化碳(CO2)的能力。由于不同行业对 CO2 的需求量很大,本研究还对 CO2 的解吸能力进行了研究。使用红外传感器检测仪器测量了吸附-解吸滞后现象。研究了吸附时的二氧化碳注入率、解吸时的氦气注入率、温度和粉煤灰接触表面积对吸附-解吸滞后的影响。结果表明,二氧化碳注入率的变化对吸附容量的变化影响不大;在所有二氧化碳注入率实验中,吸附量都达到了总可用吸附位点的 90% 以上。温度升高会导致聚合粉煤灰膨胀,从而增加可用吸附位点,进而增加总吸附量。在低氦气速率下,解吸时间极长,导致滞后反应。这对吸附-解吸循环速率不利,因为它会产生负面影响。根据研究结果,聚合粉煤灰被证明具有很高的二氧化碳捕获能力,因此可用于碳捕获应用。
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引用次数: 0
Combustion Diagnosis in a Spark-Ignition Engine Fueled with Syngas at Different CO/H2 and Diluent Ratios 以合成气为燃料的火花点火发动机在不同 CO/H2 和稀释剂比例下的燃烧诊断
Pub Date : 2024-05-15 DOI: 10.3390/gases4020006
S. Martínez-Boggio, P. Lacava, Felipe Solferini de Carvalho, P. Curto-Risso
The gasification of residues into syngas offers a versatile gaseous fuel that can be used to produce heat and power in various applications. However, the application of syngas in engines presents several challenges due to the changes in its composition. Such variations can significantly alter the optimal operational conditions of the engines that are fueled with syngas, resulting in combustion instability, high engine variability, and misfires. In this context, this work presents an experimental investigation conducted on a port-fuel injection spark-ignition optical research engine using three different syngas mixtures, with a particular focus on the effects of CO/H2 and diluent ratios. A comparative analysis is made against methane, considered as the baseline fuel. The in-cylinder pressure and related parameters are examined as indicators of combustion behavior. Additionally, 2D cycle-resolved digital visualization is employed to trace flame front propagation. Custom image processing techniques are applied to estimate flame speed, displacement, and morphological parameters. The engine runs at a constant speed (900 rpm) and with full throttle like stationary engine applications. The excess air–fuel ratios vary from 1.0 to 1.4 by adjusting the injection time and the spark timing according to the maximum brake torque of the baseline fuel. A thermodynamic analysis revealed notable trends in in-cylinder pressure traces, indicative of differences in combustion evolution and peak pressures among the syngas mixtures and methane. Moreover, the study quantified parameters such as the mass fraction burned, combustion stability (COVIMEP), and fuel conversion efficiency. The analysis provided insights into flame morphology, propagation speed, and distortion under varying conditions, shedding light on the influence of fuel composition and air dilution. Overall, the results contribute to advancing the understanding of syngas combustion behavior in SI engines and hold implications for optimizing engine performance and developing numerical models.
将残留物气化成合成气是一种多功能气体燃料,可用于在各种应用中产生热量和动力。然而,由于合成气成分的变化,在发动机中应用合成气面临着一些挑战。这种变化会极大地改变以合成气为燃料的发动机的最佳运行条件,导致燃烧不稳定、发动机变异性高和点火失灵。在这种情况下,本研究报告介绍了对使用三种不同合成气混合物的端口燃料喷射火花点火光学研究发动机进行的实验调查,重点关注 CO/H2 和稀释剂比例的影响。与作为基准燃料的甲烷进行了对比分析。缸内压力和相关参数被视为燃烧行为的指标。此外,还采用了二维循环分辨数字可视化技术来跟踪火焰前沿的传播。定制图像处理技术用于估算火焰速度、位移和形态参数。发动机以恒定的速度(900 rpm)和全油门运行,就像静态发动机应用一样。根据基准燃料的最大制动扭矩调整喷射时间和火花时机,过量空气燃料比从 1.0 到 1.4 不等。热力学分析揭示了气缸内压力轨迹的显著趋势,表明合成气混合物和甲烷在燃烧演化和峰值压力方面存在差异。此外,研究还量化了燃烧质量分数、燃烧稳定性(COVIMEP)和燃料转化效率等参数。分析深入揭示了不同条件下的火焰形态、传播速度和变形,阐明了燃料成分和空气稀释的影响。总之,研究结果有助于加深对合成气在 SI 发动机中燃烧行为的理解,并对优化发动机性能和开发数值模型具有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Towards the Isothermal Gas Compression—A Novel Finned Piston-Cylinder with Increased Efficiency 实现等温气体压缩--提高效率的新型翅片活塞缸
Pub Date : 2024-04-08 DOI: 10.3390/gases4020004
Alfred Rufer
In this paper, a novel concept of a finned piston system is presented and analyzed in which the compression heat is continuously extracted from the compression chamber. The resulting compression characteristic moves in the direction of an isothermal process, reducing the temperature of the compressed fluid in the compression chamber and reducing the necessary mechanical work required to carry out the process. The finned piston concept consists in an integrated heat exchanger inside of the chamber that is constituted of imbricated flat fins placed on the stator part and on the mobile piston. The internal heat exchange on the surface is strongly increased in comparison with a classical piston/cylinder. The energetic performance of the new system is evaluated with the help of simulation. The pressures, forces, and temperature of the compressed gas are simulated as well as the mechanical work needed. The different curves are compared with the system’s adiabatic and isothermal characteristics.
本文提出并分析了一种新型翅片活塞系统概念,在这种系统中,压缩热不断从压缩腔中提取。由此产生的压缩特性向等温过程方向移动,降低了压缩室中被压缩流体的温度,减少了进行压缩过程所需的必要机械功。翅片活塞的概念是在压缩室内部安装一个集成热交换器,该热交换器由放置在定子部分和移动活塞上的嵌入式平翅片构成。与传统的活塞/气缸相比,表面的内部热交换大大增加。在模拟的帮助下,对新系统的能量性能进行了评估。模拟了压缩气体的压力、力和温度以及所需的机械功。不同的曲线与系统的绝热和等温特性进行了比较。
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引用次数: 0
Thermodynamic Analysis of Low-Emission Offshore Gas-to-Wire Firing CO2-Rich Natural Gas: Aspects of Carbon Capture and Separation Systems 低排放近海天然气线燃烧富二氧化碳天然气的热力学分析:碳捕获和分离系统的各个方面
Pub Date : 2024-03-25 DOI: 10.3390/gases4020003
A. C. Reis, O. Q. F. Araújo, José Luiz de de Medeiros
Despite the growth of renewable energy, fossil fuels dominate the global energy matrix. Due to expanding proved reserves and energy demand, an increase in natural gas power generation is predicted for future decades. Oil reserves from the Brazilian offshore Pre-Salt basin have a high gas-to-oil ratio of CO2-rich associated gas. To deliver this gas to market, high-depth long-distance subsea pipelines are required, making Gas-to-Pipe costly. Since it is easier to transport electricity through long subsea distances, Gas-to-Wire instead of Gas-to-Pipe is a more convenient alternative. Aiming at making offshore Gas-to-Wire thermodynamically efficient without impacting CO2 emissions, this work explores a new concept of an environmentally friendly and thermodynamically efficient Gas-to-Wire process firing CO2-rich natural gas (CO2 > 40%mol) from high-depth offshore oil and gas fields. The proposed process prescribes a natural gas combined cycle, exhaust gas recycling (lowering flue gas flowrate and increasing flue gas CO2 content), CO2 post-combustion capture with aqueous monoethanolamine, and CO2 dehydration with triethylene glycol for enhanced oil recovery. The two main separation processes (post-combustion carbon capture and CO2 dehydration) have peculiarities that were addressed at the light shed by thermodynamic analysis. The overall process provides 534.4 MW of low-emission net power. Second law analysis shows that the thermodynamic efficiency of Gas-to-Wire with carbon capture attains 33.35%. Lost-Work analysis reveals that the natural gas combined cycle sub-system is the main power destruction sink (80.7% Lost-Work), followed by the post-combustion capture sub-system (14% Lost-Work). These units are identified as the ones that deserve to be upgraded to rapidly raise the thermodynamic efficiency of the low-emission Gas-to-Wire process.
尽管可再生能源不断增长,但化石燃料在全球能源结构中仍占主导地位。由于探明储量和能源需求不断扩大,预计未来几十年天然气发电量将增加。巴西近海前盐盆地的石油储量中,富含二氧化碳的伴生气的气油比很高。要将这些天然气输送到市场,需要高深度的长距离海底管道,因此天然气制管道的成本很高。由于长距离海底输电更为方便,因此 "天然气到电线"(Gas-to-Wire)比 "天然气到管道"(Gas-to-Pipe)更为便捷。为了在不影响二氧化碳排放的情况下提高海上 "气转线 "工艺的热力学效率,这项工作探索了一种新的概念,即从高深度海上油气田燃烧富含二氧化碳(CO2 > 40%mol)的天然气的环保、热力学效率高的 "气转线 "工艺。建议的工艺采用天然气联合循环、废气回收(降低烟气流速并增加烟气中的二氧化碳含量)、使用单乙醇胺水溶液进行二氧化碳燃烧后捕集,以及使用三甘醇进行二氧化碳脱水以提高石油采收率。两个主要分离过程(燃烧后碳捕集和二氧化碳脱水)都有其特殊性,通过热力学分析解决了这些问题。整个过程可提供 534.4 兆瓦的低排放净电能。第二定律分析表明,带碳捕集的 "气转网 "热力学效率为 33.35%。损耗分析表明,天然气联合循环子系统是主要的电力损耗源(80.7% 的损耗),其次是燃烧后捕集子系统(14% 的损耗)。这些机组被认为是值得升级的机组,以迅速提高低排放 "气转电 "工艺的热力学效率。
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引用次数: 0
A Review on the Process of Greenhouse Gas Inventory Preparation and Proposed Mitigation Measures for Reducing Carbon Footprint 温室气体清单编制过程回顾及减少碳足迹的拟议缓解措施
Pub Date : 2024-03-15 DOI: 10.3390/gases4010002
C. Yaman
Greenhouse gases trap heat in the atmosphere, causing the Earth’s surface temperature to rise. The main greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, perfluorocarbons, hydrofluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride. Human activities are increasing greenhouse gas concentrations rapidly, which is causing global climate change. Global climate change is increasing environmental and public health problems. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it is necessary to identify where the emissions are coming from, develop a plan to reduce them, and then implement and monitor the plan to ensure that emissions are actually reduced. Anthropogenic global climate change has large and increasingly adverse economic effects. Cities emit the most greenhouse gas due to fossil fuel burning and power usage. The four major greenhouse gas emitters are energy, transportation, waste management, and urban land use sectors. Organizations should prepare action plans to lower their greenhouse gas emissions and stop the worst consequences of climate change. These action plans require companies and local authorities to submit their greenhouse gas emissions reports on a yearly basis. A greenhouse gas emissions management system includes several processes and tools created by organizations to understand, measure, monitor, report, and validate their greenhouse gas emissions. Two of the most widely adapted frameworks for greenhouse gases inventory reporting are ISO 14064 and the greenhouse gas protocol. This review paper aims to identify some of the key points of GHG inventory preparation and mitigation strategies.
温室气体在大气中捕获热量,导致地球表面温度升高。主要的温室气体有二氧化碳、甲烷、氧化亚氮、全氟化碳、氢氟化碳和六氟化硫。人类活动使温室气体浓度迅速增加,导致全球气候变化。全球气候变化正在加剧环境和公共健康问题。要减少温室气体排放,就必须确定排放的来源,制定减少排放的计划,然后实施和监测计划,以确保排放量确实减少。人为的全球气候变化对经济产生了巨大且日益不利的影响。由于化石燃料的燃烧和电力的使用,城市排放的温室气体最多。四大温室气体排放源是能源、交通、废物管理和城市土地利用部门。各组织应制定行动计划,降低温室气体排放,阻止气候变化带来的最坏后果。这些行动计划要求公司和地方当局每年提交温室气体排放报告。温室气体排放管理系统包括企业为了解、测量、监控、报告和验证其温室气体排放而创建的多个流程和工具。其中两个最广泛采用的温室气体清单报告框架是 ISO 14064 和温室气体协议。本综述旨在确定温室气体清单编制和减排战略的一些要点。
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引用次数: 0
Natural Gas Matters: LNG and India’s Quest for Clean Energy 天然气问题:液化天然气与印度对清洁能源的追求
Pub Date : 2024-02-03 DOI: 10.3390/gases4010001
Subhadip Ghosh, Rajarshi Majumder, Bidisha Chatterjee
India, the world’s most populous country, is the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Despite employing several energy sources, it still relies heavily on coal, its primary energy source. Given India’s swiftly rising energy demand, this challenges meeting emission reduction targets. In recent years, India has significantly increased investments in renewables like solar and hydrogen. While commendable, these initiatives alone cannot meet the country’s expanding energy demands. In the short term, India must rely on both domestic and imported fossil fuels, with natural gas being the most environmentally friendly option. In this context, this paper attempts to forecast energy consumption, natural gas production, and consumption in India until 2050, using both univariate and multivariate forecasting methods. For multivariate forecasting, we have assumed two alternative possibilities for GDP growth: the business-as-usual and the high-growth scenarios. Each of our forecasts indicates a notable shortfall in the projected production of natural gas compared to the expected demand, implying our results are robust. Our model predicts that nearly 30–50 percent of India’s natural gas consumption will be met by imports, mainly in the form of LNG. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that Indian government policies emphasize increasing domestic natural gas production, importing LNG, and expanding renewable energy resources.
印度是世界上人口最多的国家,也是世界上第三大温室气体排放国。尽管印度使用多种能源,但其主要能源仍严重依赖煤炭。由于印度的能源需求迅速增长,这给实现减排目标带来了挑战。近年来,印度大幅增加了对太阳能和氢能等可再生能源的投资。尽管这些举措值得称赞,但仅靠这些举措无法满足印度不断扩大的能源需求。短期内,印度必须依赖国内和进口化石燃料,而天然气是最环保的选择。在此背景下,本文尝试使用单变量和多变量预测方法,对 2050 年前印度的能源消耗、天然气产量和消费量进行预测。在进行多变量预测时,我们假定 GDP 增长有两种可能:"一切照旧 "情景和高增长情景。我们的每项预测都表明,与预期需求相比,天然气的预计产量明显不足,这意味着我们的结果是稳健的。根据我们的模型预测,印度近 30-50% 的天然气消费将通过进口来满足,主要是液化天然气。基于这些发现,本文建议印度政府的政策应强调提高国内天然气产量、进口液化天然气以及扩大可再生能源资源。
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引用次数: 0
Natural Gas Matters: LNG and India’s Quest for Clean Energy 天然气问题:液化天然气与印度对清洁能源的追求
Pub Date : 2024-02-03 DOI: 10.3390/gases4010001
Subhadip Ghosh, Rajarshi Majumder, Bidisha Chatterjee
India, the world’s most populous country, is the world’s third-largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Despite employing several energy sources, it still relies heavily on coal, its primary energy source. Given India’s swiftly rising energy demand, this challenges meeting emission reduction targets. In recent years, India has significantly increased investments in renewables like solar and hydrogen. While commendable, these initiatives alone cannot meet the country’s expanding energy demands. In the short term, India must rely on both domestic and imported fossil fuels, with natural gas being the most environmentally friendly option. In this context, this paper attempts to forecast energy consumption, natural gas production, and consumption in India until 2050, using both univariate and multivariate forecasting methods. For multivariate forecasting, we have assumed two alternative possibilities for GDP growth: the business-as-usual and the high-growth scenarios. Each of our forecasts indicates a notable shortfall in the projected production of natural gas compared to the expected demand, implying our results are robust. Our model predicts that nearly 30–50 percent of India’s natural gas consumption will be met by imports, mainly in the form of LNG. Based on these findings, this paper recommends that Indian government policies emphasize increasing domestic natural gas production, importing LNG, and expanding renewable energy resources.
印度是世界上人口最多的国家,也是世界上第三大温室气体排放国。尽管印度使用多种能源,但其主要能源仍严重依赖煤炭。由于印度的能源需求迅速增长,这给实现减排目标带来了挑战。近年来,印度大幅增加了对太阳能和氢能等可再生能源的投资。尽管这些举措值得称赞,但仅靠这些举措无法满足印度不断扩大的能源需求。短期内,印度必须依赖国内和进口化石燃料,而天然气是最环保的选择。在此背景下,本文尝试使用单变量和多变量预测方法,对 2050 年前印度的能源消耗、天然气产量和消费量进行预测。在进行多变量预测时,我们假定 GDP 增长有两种可能:"一切照旧 "情景和高增长情景。我们的每项预测都表明,与预期需求相比,天然气的预计产量明显不足,这意味着我们的结果是稳健的。根据我们的模型预测,印度近 30-50% 的天然气消费将通过进口来满足,主要是液化天然气。基于这些发现,本文建议印度政府的政策应强调提高国内天然气产量、进口液化天然气以及扩大可再生能源资源。
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引用次数: 0
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