辨析塔利班 2.0 和阿富汗的政治格局

Raghav Sharma
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摘要

塔利班在政治上精明,在组织上灵巧,与该地区的主要参与者建立了 "对立合作 "关系,这些参与者在塔利班试图将自己重塑为 "塔利班 2.0 "时对其极力讨好。然而,"塔利班 2.0 "执政两年后,言辞与现实之间的鸿沟已经扩大。本文对 "塔利班 2.0 "这一概念进行了分解,认为尽管存在细微差别,但塔利班是一个意识形态运动,在对待妇女的态度、使用暴力以及与跨国行动者的联系等方面都表现出了对其强硬意识形态的忠实,并具有显著的连续性。在地缘政治格局急剧重组、力量明显不对称、反对派内部派系林立以及达伊什等试图填补空白的新势力崛起的情况下,国内政治行为体在应对塔利班的势头方面也步履蹒跚。
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Discerning Taliban 2.0 and Afghanistan’s Political Landscape
Politically astute and organisationally deft the Taliban forged ‘antagonistic cooperation’ with key regional players who courted the movement vigorously as it sought to reinvent itself as ‘Taliban 2.0’. However, two years into the rule of ‘Taliban 2.0’, the chasm between rhetoric and reality has widened. This article disaggregates the idea of ‘Taliban 2.0’, arguing that subtle differences notwithstanding the Taliban is an ideological movement which demonstrates a remarkable contiguity in showing fidelity to their hardline ideology manifested in their attitudes towards women, deployment of violence and links with transnational actors. Domestic political actors too stuttered in responding to the Taliban’s momentum amid a dramatically reconfigured geo-political landscape, a glaring power asymmetry, factionalism within opposition ranks and the rise of new actors like the Daesh which attempted to fill the void.
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