数字化与增长的关系:穆斯林占多数的四个地区的一些经验证据

M. Ganic
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摘要

目的--本研究的目的是调查在穆斯林占多数的全球四个地区,数字经济的发展是否存在地区差异,以及这些差异对经济增长的影响。方法--本研究对 2000 年至 2021 年间穆斯林占多数的 48 个国家进行了实证研究,这些国家被划分在四个地区(中东和北非地区、欧洲和欧亚地区、南亚、东亚地区以及太平洋和非洲地区)。研究采用了 Kao 残差协整检验法和完全修正普通最小二乘法(FMOLS/DOLS-Dynamic)的长期估值法。计量经济学模型中将采用一些特定变量来衡量数字化对经济增长的影响程度,例如数字经济基础设施(以个人使用互联网为指标)、数字经济开放度(以信息和通信技术产品出口为指标)以及数字技术竞争力(以研发占国内生产总值的比重为指标)。研究结果--分析表明,尽管数字经济对撒哈拉以南非洲、欧洲和欧亚大陆的经济增长做出了积极贡献,但由于数字经济基础设施不发达,对这些地区的影响小于对中东和北非、南亚、东亚和太平洋国家的影响。结论-- 基于上述分析,我们可以得出这样的结论:数字化可以极大地促进经济增长,但其效益可能因国家的发达程度而异。在穆斯林占多数的 48 个国家中,数字经济的发展存在明显的地域不平衡。为了提高整体 GDP 增长,这些国家需要研究有助于提高信息和通信技术以及数字经济使用的政策:数字经济、经济增长、ICT、穆斯林、面板协整模型:O40, O47, E22.
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Digitalization-growth nexus: some empirical evidence from four regions with a Muslim majority
Purpose- The purpose of this study is to investigate whether regional variations exist in the development of the digital economy and how they impact growth in the four global regions where Muslims predominate. Methodology- The study employs empirical examination of 48 countries with Muslim majority divided in four regions (Middle East and North Africa region, Europe and Eurasia region, South Asia, East Asia region and the Pacific and Africa region) between 2000 to 2021. The study employs Kao Residual Cointegration Test, and the Long-run Valuation of Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS/DOLS-Dynamic). A certain number of specific variables in the econometric model will be employed to measure the level of digitization on economic growth, such as: Digital economy infrastructure proxied by Individuals using the internet, Digital economic openness proxied by ICT product exports and Digital technology competitiveness proxied by Research and Development as share of GDP. Findings- The analysis reveals that despite the fact that the digital economy made a positive contribution to economic growth in both Sub-Saharan Africa and Europe and Euroasia, the impact on these regions is less than that on the Middle East and North Africa, South Asia, East Asia, and the Pacific countries due to the underdeveloped infrastructure of the digital economy The least effect of digitalization on growth was found in Sub-Saharan African countries with low incomes.. Conclusion- Based upon the analysis, it may be concluded that digitalization can considerably boost economic growth, but its benefits may differ depending on how developed a nation is. There is a clear geographical imbalance in the development of the digital economy across 48 nations with a majority of Muslims .To increase overall GDP growth, those countries need to look into policies that will help increase ICT and the digital economy use. Keywords: Digital economy, economic growth, ICT, the Muslim Word, panel cointegration model. JEL Codes: O40, O47, E22.
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