Trends in Gastric Cancer Mortality in Montenegro, 1990-2018: Joinpoint Regression.

Introduction: Gastric cancer (GC) remains a significant global public health problem, despite the decreasing trends in GC mortality rates in the last 5 decades. Our study aimed to examine the pattern of GC mortality in Montenegro between 1990 and 2018 and to contribute to the future by designing a national long-term strategy for the control and prevention of GC.

Methods: Gastric cancer mortality data in Montenegro from 1990 to 2018 were collected. Mortality rates were age-standardized to the World Standard Population for estimating both the overall and gender-specific trends. The joinpoint regression model was used to assess GC mortality and identified significant changes in the linear time trend. Linear and Poisson regressions were also applied for additional trend analyses.

Results: Joinpoint regression reveals a statistically significant decrease in the age-standardized rate for the overall level, on average by 1.4% per year (AAPC [95% IP] = -1.4 [-2.4 to -0.4]; p = 0.007), which was due to a decrease in the age-standardized rate in men with an average annual change of -1.8% (AAPC [95% IP] = -1.8 [-2.9 to -0.6]; p = 0.003), while in women the rates were stable (p = 0.565). The results for age groups indicate that a decline was registered at the overall level, and among men, as a consequence of the trend of decreasing age-specific rates for the age group 55-64 on average annually by 2% among men (AAPC [95% IP] = -2 [-3.8 to -0.1]; p = 0.035), and for the overall level (AAPC [95% IP] = -2 [-3.7 to -0.3]; p = 0.026).

Conclusion: Our findings indicate a noteworthy decline in age-standardized overall GC mortality rates among men in Montenegro, while rates for women have remained constant. National strategies to further reduce mortality rates for GC are necessary.